NFL DFS Picks – 2016 Week 17
Week 17 is here, meaning the end is nigh. No season moves faster than the NFL season, aside from maybe the college football season. There should end up being a handful of players who will be sitting this week, which should open up some nice value plays. This could end up being the week that the chalk plays will take someone to a tournament win, so don’t sleep on them as much in tournaments as normal.
Prices are FD/DK
Aaron Rodgers (8800/7700) – Aaron Rodgers is probably the top overall play this week. He knows that his team is in a must win position to clinch the division and grab home field in the first round. The Lions secondary is not very good by any means, and I think we’ll see the type of performance out of Aaron Rodgers that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the last several years.
Russell Wilson (7600/6800) – Russell Wilson would be option two at the position for me, as he is cheaper and gets a slightly better matchup. Typically, those would be the qualifications for the top overall plays of the week, but it is just that I can’t believe that there is a chance that San Francisco can keep in this game. As a result, he carries a bit more risk. I think he’ll still put together a monster game though.
Blake Bortles (7600/5600) – At the same price, making him a really nice pivot from Wilson, is Blake Bortles. There is no question that he is the most disappointing player this year from a fantasy perspective, but he can redeem himself going into 2017 with back to back quality performances. Indianapolis isn’t going to put up much of a fight, as they haven’t been very good on that side of the ball al year, and Bortles could certainly end up with a big game tonight.
David Johnson (9300/9800) – With Le’Veon Bell likely sitting out on Sunday, David Johnson becomes the top high dollar play at the position. He’s been the best overall back all year, and has certainly cemented himself as the new top back in the NFL. He is matchup proof, and he should be in at least some of your lineups this weekend.
Devonta Freeman (8000/7000) – The Atlanta Falcons backfield can always be a little bit difficult to figure out, and this week will be no different. I’ll give the nod to Freeman here as I do think he is the feature back of the two. I think that this game will likely be dictated by what happens on the ground and not through the air, meaning that Freeman should have plenty of chances to rack up fantasy points tonight.
Jacquizz Rodgers (5200/4900) – Rodgers is now back to being the only quality back on the Buccaneers roster with Doug Martin entering a treatment facility and Charles Sims back on the IR. We’ve seen him excel in this position each time he got the opportunity this year, so even though Carolina has a tougher run defense, I’d expect him to be heavily used and I think we’ll see a monster day out of him.
DeAngelo Williams (4500/5500) – Le’Veon Bell is most likely out of action this week, so it will be tough to pass on DeAngelo Williams at minimum price on FanDuel, and at a low cost on DraftKings. The Browns might have picked up their first win of the year last year, but they are still in a tough position when it comes to stopping this Pittsburgh offense, even without their top options.
Mike Evans (8400/8000) – I can see going with Odell Beckham this weekend, because he is unquestionably the top receiver that will suit up. However, I am more interested in focusing on guys at the top dollar mark who have something to play for, and that is why you see Evans here and no Beckham. Winston will likely have to choice but to look his way this week if the Bucs want to hold out hopes for the playoff.
Jordy Nelson (8200/8100) – Nelson is Rodgers top option, and that is almost all that needs to be said here. The Lions secondary is an absolute mess, and Rodgers and Nelson are likely to exploit it at every opportunity.
Doug Baldwin (7000/6300) – The Seahawks are in a good and bad situation. Good, because they get to play the Niners this week with their fingers crossed that the Falcons lose and they can take the number two seed and a first round bye from them. The negative side is because outside of Wilson and Baldwin, there isn’t much to write home about. The price is very nice on him this week, and he’ll be in a lot of my linueps.
Allen Robinson (6100/5500) – Robinson finally busted out of his 2016 funk last week, and gets another chance to make 2016 a little less cringeworthy this week. The Colts are another bad secondary, and if he can do what he did last week, plus add a touchdown, you’re looking at a guy who is going to win someone a tournament.
Eli Rogers (4700/4000) – It’s tough to say who will command the targets without Antonio Brown on the field, but one of my best bets would be Rogers. He’s got upside to be sure, and I think he should be able to take advantage of those bad Browns defenders. The upside here is pretty big for the cost.
Travis Kelce (6800/5000) – After a slow start to the season, things are starting to pick up for Kelce, and I cannot see them stopping this weekend. The Chargers have absolutely no one who will be able to contain him, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him go over the 100 yard mark again this weekend.
Zach Ertz (5900/4800) – Ertz, similar to Kelce, had a very slow start to the season, but just like he’s done in years past, seems to be putting things together down the stretch. He’s a much easier choice on FanDuel than DraftKings, but I just don’t think he has the upside. He’s still a good play though.
Charles Clay (5600/3500) – Clay has now three consecutive top notch performance performances, and on DraftKings, he is just priced too low. My only hesitation is the quarterback change and how that will affect his upside. I think he should be safe, but it would be in a tournament capacity only.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5100/3600) – I don’t normally play defenses against Cleveland because it doesn’t normally work out very well, but I’m fine with doing it this week. I cannot imagine the Browns being able to put too much together.
Buffalo Bills (4800/3400) – Over the last several weeks, one of the top trends in daily fantasy is to pick the defense playing the Jets. This week, it is divisional rivals, the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are now moving on with the Ryan’s, so who knows what we’ll see this week, but I think they’ll be good against the Jets.