NFL DFS Picks – 2016 Week 16

Week 15 is here, meaning we only have three weeks of daily fantasy football left in the regular season. There are a number of games that have playoff implications and should stay close. There are also some underpriced options we could look at to help balance our lineups this week. I for one am excited, and I hope you are too. Now on to the picks!

Prices are FD/DK

QUARTERBACK:

Drew Brees (9000/7400) – I mentioned in one of the various articles I write that Drew Brees is good to have one awesome fantasy outing on the road each year. After abysmal starts on the road this year, he finally came through last week. This week, he is back in the SuperDome, and gets a matchup against the Buccaneers that he should be able to take advantage of with relative ease. The Saints are still mathematically in the playoff hunt, so I expect a bit of extra effort from them.

Matt Ryan (8100/7200) – The Falcons are firmly in playoff contention at the moment, and will be facing off with division rivals on the road. The Panthers secondary is still pretty bad, and I expect Ryan to be able to tear through them at will. I think this game will be won through the Falcons passing game, as I think the Panthers do have a good enough run defense to slow both Freeman and Coleman down. This is a great opportunity to use him tonight.

Kirk Cousins (7800/6800) – On a short week, Washington will be traveling to the windy city to take on the Bears who will try their hardest to knock the Redskins out of playoff contention. The Bears defense actually started off the year pretty well, but as the year has gone on, they have spiraled out of control into the bad zone. I think Cousins will find enough holes in the defense to put together a strong outing, and is one of my favorites plays at the price.

RUNNING BACK:

Jordan Howard (7200/6300) – Jordan Howard has been an excellent addition to the Bears who lost Matt Forte to free agency in the offseason. This matchup against Washington is very good, and I’m sure he should be able to put together a nice game here. The Washington run defense has been highly suspect all year, and I think Howard will continue his hot run.

Todd Gurley (7900/6500) – I don’t know why I keep going back to Gurley. I really don’t. Part of me believes that Jeff Fisher being gone will be a boon to his fantasy upside, but I don’t know if that will happen this year. I still believe Gurley is one of the top runners in the NFL, and he’s getting one of the best possible matchups a back can against the Niners. I think many people will stay away from him due to his poor play, but this could be the time to jump in.

Doug Martin (7000/5400) – This is a matchup that should benefit Martin quite a bit. The Saints run defense isn’t very good, and I would expect that he should be able to have a nice game here. The price has come down some, especially on DraftKings, which makes him a great value option at the position this week. I think he should be able to come close to either 100 yards or a touchdown, and I think he’s got a nice floor.

Ronnie Hillman (4500/3400) – One of my favorite tournament options will be minimum priced, or close to it on DraftKings, Ronnie Hillman. Kenneth Farrow didn’t look good at all against a bad run defense last week, and even though the Chargers are taking on one of the worst in the league, something tells me the workload will be closer to split, if not in favor of, Hillman this week. This play is dependent on Melvin Gordon being out again.

WIDE RECEIVER: 

T.Y. Hilton (7600/7800) – The Colts have a slim chance of making it into the playoffs, and they will get a matchup with a tough offense in Oakland. I think that Hilton will be needed if the Colts want to keep this game close, and I love the upside for him. The price is completely fair, and I think there is enough value this week to play him a lot this week.

Brandin Cooks (7100/6800) – Cooks finally broke out last week, and he gets another great opportunity here against the Buccaneers. It is going to be very difficult for defenders to stay on Cooks, and I do believe that Brees will look his way once again this week. Last week, he was very low owned, and I cannot imagine that being the case this week.

Alshon Jeffery (7000/6300) – The Bears are playing for nothing right now, but I do think they will be looking to play spoiler. I think that Jeffery will be a major target once again this week, and I do think he’ll have a monster day either this week or next to cement his stock as a top free agent this offseason. The price matches what he has done thus far this year, but doesn’t mirror his upside, which is pretty big.

Rishard Matthews (5700/4900) – Matthews has been a pleasant surprise this year, leading the Titans receiving unit in a lot of ways. Still, the price here is very, very low for a guy who could end up with double-digit targets this weekend. The Jaguars are improving on defense, that’s for sure, but I do think that this is a matchup that Matthews should be able to take advantage of, and I love him as a value play.

Robby Anderson (5500/4800) – Robby Anderson was a preseason darling, and it is very, very rare that any of those types really work out in the year they boom in the preseason. Because of the quarterback change that has taken place, Anderson is working with Bryce Petty, who I’ m sure he has worked with a lot because of being on the teams second unit. The Patriots are a good defense, no question, but sheer volume could work in Andersons favor this weekend.

TIGHT END:

Cameron Brate (5600/3900) – There are only two reliable options at this point in Tampa Bay: Mike Evans and Cameron Brate. Tight end is always a tough position to fill, as it can become difficult to predict production, and there is no difference here with Brate. I think he should end up being targeted enough and put up enough production to put together a big weekend.

Hunter Henry (4500/3500) – This is going to be a tournament situation only for me, as I can see both Antonio Gates and Hunter Henry having good games this weekend. I am defaulting to Henry due to his age and his overall skill set, and I think that Rivers will connect on some big plays with him, as the Browns just cannot defend the position at all.

Dion Sims (5100/2600) – Sims has seen a lot of attention in Miami lately, and as a result of his price, especially on DraftKings, I could see the case for using him in tournaments this week. The upside isn’t huge, but he’s been scoring touchdowns a lot lately and that provides a safe floor for him.

DEFENSE:

New England Patriots (5000/3600) – The Patriots defense has been looking pretty good as of late, and the Jets offense has been looking like one we should pick on, so why look anywhere else other than the Patriots this week? One reason is that they are likely to be very highly owned, which does lower their overall upside, but they should still end up with a nice game here.

Miami Dolphins (4400/3000) – Surprisingly, the Dolphins have also looked like a pretty good defense to target, and they are priced nicer than the Patriots, albeit not by much. The Bills aren’t a bad offense, but sometimes, you just have to take a bit of a chance on a team you could see having a strong game even if it doesn’t appear so on the surface.