NBA DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 4/4/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Pricing is FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

POINT GUARD:

Jrue Holiday (13700/7300/7300) – Kind of a weird slate tonight, where I just don’t really love anyone, and I think you’ll have that as the year winds down. One of the better matchups at the position tonight is Holiday going against the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have been tried and true as a team that we can comfortably use point guards against this year, so we really shouldn’t consider backing off of it right now. The price is a little more than I’d like to spend, but I will have a good amount of Holiday tonight.

Jeremy Lin of the Brooklyn Nets

Jeremy Lin (12300/6100/6600) – Lin has been pretty stable upon returning from injury yet again this year, and gets a pretty fair matchup against the Sixers. This isn’t the position the Sixers are worst at, but I think the way the team uses Lin will be paramount to anything having to do with pure matchup. His price is going up, but I feel comfortable using him until he hits around $7k.

Emmanuel Mudiay (7700/3700/3900) – Right now, both Will Barton and Jameer Nelson are questionable for this game. They were out for the last game, and prior to it, Mike Malone said he planned to use Mudiay a lot. Well, he didn’t lie, and he was definitely a much better fantasy option than either Gary Harris or Jamal Murray – maybe even combined. New Orleans plays pretty decent defense, but the point guard position is where they struggle as well, with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins making it difficult on opposing forwards.

SHOOTING GUARD:

DeMar DeRozan (15900/9200/8600) – DeRozan has been mostly stellar over the last week and a half after a pretty down period. The matchup here against Indiana is one he just got finished dominating, and there is nothing about it that makes it look like he couldn’t do the same thing again tonight. We won’t have many more chances in the regular season to use him, so we might want to do it while we can.

Bradley Beal (13600/7500/7200) – I really like that Beal’s price has come down some into this matchup with the Hornets, because I think he can dominate here. He didn’t shoot very well. The Hornets aren’t eliminated from the playoffs, so I expect them to be playing with a little more feistiness than we’ve seen at other points in the season. I’ll gladly take a shot with Beal in tournaments tonight.

Buddy Hield (11200/5500/5600) – There isn’t really anything special about the matchup for Hield tonight. All we are looking for here is the fact that he’s getting the minutes and Dallas just really isn’t a good basketball team. They have been eliminated from the playoffs, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them playing some of their younger guys as the season winds down, and their younger guys aren’t great defensively. This could be another good spot for a 30 point outing for Hield tonight.

SMALL FORWARD:

Paul George (15000/8900/8100) – As of right now, the Indiana Pacers are on the outside of the playoff race and looking in, so I don’t think George is going to let it go without a fight. On DraftKings, his price is just silly for what he could end up doing. There is no doubt about it, he has to be our favorite play of the day. This spells 60-point output all over it. He’s going to be highly owned, but I don’t think you want to miss out on the production he’ll bring to the table.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (10900/5300/5500) – Outside of just one game against the Orlando Magic, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has been extremely stable and his price hasn’t really moved up too much. The matchup against the 76ers is a perfect spot for him to keep the train moving, and he’s had some success against them already this year, which really doesn’t hurt to say. I’ll be using him in all formats tonight.

Andre Iguodala (10100/5200/5100) – Iguodala wasn’t really anything special when the Wizards played on Sunday night, but I’m willing to go back to the well at this price. He’s got 30+ point upside when he takes the court right now because the Warriors need him to provide offense with Kevin Durant still a few days away from returning. They haven’t locked up home court advantage yet, so they do still have something to play for.

POWER FORWARD:

Kevin Love (13700/7300/7300) – Love hasn’t really looked like he’s been in the game recently, but a matchup against one of the worst teams in basketball should set him straight. This was a guy in the $8k’s before his injury and we have known for years that the talent is there. The Cavs are fighting for the top seed in the East and I think they will all keep pushing to get that. Love’s just too cheap to ignore in tournaments tonight.

Richaun Holmes

Richaun Holmes (12600/6000/6300) – Holmes got moved to the Power Forward position against on FanDuel, which I am a fan of. I really like the center position tonight, and I would consider this to be a weak position. Holmes gets a matchup against Brooklyn, who isn’t really great at defending anything. His production has been all over the place as of late, but I am willing to take a look at him in tournaments tonight.

Frank Kaminsky (10500/5400/5300) – The Marvin Williams train looks to be slowing down which shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody. He has been playing well over his head practically all season long. His decline should mean the resurgence of Frank Kaminsky. He too has seen his production float all over the place, but for the most part, he’s been putting together some pretty good lines. I’m willing to take a shot at him tonight against a struggling Washington frontcourt.

CENTER:

Rudy Gobert (15200/9200/8300) – With Jusuf Nurkic out of the way, there is nothing stopping Rudy Gobert from utter dominance of this Portland team. This is a team that also likes to drive to the rim a lot which increases the likelihood of getting those much needing Gobert blocks. His price on FanDuel is tough to want to play with, but I’ll use him on DraftKings all day. I think he’s playable in both formats with a ton of upside.

Brook Lopez

Brook Lopez (13700/7900/7300) – Playing centers against the 76ers has been one of the best things you can do in NBA DFS this season, and there are no indications that it is going to stop now. Lopez has been a very strong player this year, and has really rounded into form as the season has wound down. I think he’s capable of over 50 fantasy points in this matchup, making him someone that should be on your radar.

Jonas Valancunias (11600/5500/5900) – It wasn’t but a few nights ago that we had this same matchup and we were able to get Valancunias at really low ownership. I fully expect the same thing to happen again tonight. The price is higher than I would like, but I think we are looking at another 40-point outing from Jonas, even in limited minutes tonight. He makes a great tournament option.

Slate Strategy

There are a lot of higher end plays I like tonight, so I’m hoping we can get some confirmed value prior to the games starting.

With so many teams still fighting for playoff positioning, and possible playoff positioning, I think there is a pretty good chance that you can make your rosters just using guys from those situations.

Of those guys, Paul George is my favorite. $8.1k on DraftKings is just way too low for someone who is a Swiss Army Knife for his team, and carries 60+ fantasy point upside. The same thing could be said about DeMar DeRozan, so I will have a great deal of both of those guys tonight. I wouldn’t completely fade Kemba Walker either; he’s going to have to produce in order for his team to try to make it to the post season.

Situations to Monitor

Philadelphia – Sergio Rodriguez is still questionable for this game. If he misses, T.J. McConnell and Nik Stauskas get the biggest bump.

Denver – Both Will Barton and Jameer Nelson are questionable for this game. If they miss, Emmanuel Mudiay could benefit again. I’d really watch for what the Denver beat writers put out because if Mike Malone says he’s going to get a lot of run again, you’ll want to use him this cheap.

Milwaukee – Malcolm Brogdon is already out for Tuesday’s game. Matthew Dellavedova actually had a really good game without him. So did Giannis. I’d look there first.

Memphis – Marc Gasol remains questionable. This is the toughest matchup that they’ve faced without him, so I really don’t know if it makes a ton of sense to use anyone.

Utah – George Hill is listed as questionable. Shelvin Mack has been serviceable in his stead.

Dallas – Both Seth Curry and Dirk Nowitzki are questionable. Harrison Barnes could see more work and was pretty good without Dirk earlier in the year.

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