NBA DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 3/29/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Pricing is FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

POINT GUARD:

Russell Westbrook (23700/13100/13200) – Russell Westbrook is going to ball out tonight. This team has no hope of stopping him, the same way they had no hope of stopping DeMar DeRozan [or Cory Joseph for that matter]. The price is absolutely ridiculous – until he drops 80 fantasy points and you feel really stupid that you didn’t put him in your lineup. I’m fine paying this for him tonight, and fully believe that he will eclipse the 70 point mark tonight.

Kemba Walker of the Charlotte Hornets

Kemba Walker (14300/7800/7800) – Kemba has become one of the more frustrating options to use on a nightly basis because he seems to have lost any interest in playing the game of basketball whatsoever down the stretch. Like a fiend, though, I’ll keep going back to get my fix because I believe somewhere, somehow, he’s going to snap back into things. I really like going after the point guard position against Toronto. Right now, Kemba looks absolutely awful at home against the Bucks, so hopefully that drives his ownership down tonight.

Cory Joseph (9800/5100/5000) – Joseph was so low owned Monday night, but since his price hardly went up, you can expect much, much higher ownership on Wednesday. The matchup is good against the above mentioned Kemba Walker, and I think he could flirt with the 30 point mark again tonight. We’ve seen his floor go pretty low, despite having no real competition at the position, but I think he’s going to round into form as we prepare for Kyle Lowry to return.

SHOOTING GUARD:

DeMar DeRozan (16000/8700/8700) – Charlotte is an absolute mess right now, and I don’t think it’s going to help their cause to head into Toronto to take on the Raptors. DeRozan has finally come out of his funk, and his price really hasn’t caught up with him as of yet. The 50+ point upside he brings to the table is too hard to ignore in tournaments. I expect him to be a really popular play tonight, but I’m willing to jump in with the rest of the crowd as the Raptors battle for playoff position.

Serge Ibaka and Victor Oladipo

Victor Oladipo (11900/6000/6000) – Oladipo is a pretty consistent option that really hasn’t shown any upside at all throughout the year. I’m not saying he hasn’t had a few big games, but with Russell Westbrook playing in God Mode, there really hasn’t been much left over for anyone not names Enes Kanter. I really don’t mind using Oladipo in tournaments, because it never hurts to have someone who has a stable floor to balance the risk you have to take. 30-33 points is well within reason tonight.

Rodney Hood (9100/3000/4600) – Man, I really hate having to go this route, but to be honest with you, it feels right. This isn’t necessarily contingent on Gordon Hayward missing this game, but it doesn’t hurt. The Kings should get eaten alive by the Jazz, and Hood has every chance in the world to put up another 30 point fantasy outing against a team that can’t defend the wings well. If his three point shot is landing, he’s got some pretty serious upside, which is why I won’t back down from using him in my tournament lineups.

SMALL FORWARD:

Kawhi Leonard (18200/9800/9900) – I wonder how many of us that have played NBA DFS for years would have thought that we would have seen Kawhi Leonard moving over the $10k mark a few different teams during the season. He’s on course to do it again right now. Golden State is trying to hold on to the top seed and I think that Kawhi is almost built for situations like that. His game is so good right now, that I really don’t have any issue paying his inflated salary. I will have high ownership of Kawhi tonight.

Harrison Barnes

Harrison Barnes (11900/5400/6000) – I really struggled with this one because I hate Harrison Barnes with everyone healthy, but we’ve seen the price drop now, specifically on FanDuel, to a point where I’m not going to hesitate putting him into some of my lineups. I’m not touching him on FantasyDraft, and I’ll only have a limited amount on DraftKings, but I could see him flirting with 30 points tonight, and that makes good value on FanDuel.

P.J. Tucker (9400/4300/4800) – P.J. Tucker has been doing well for himself subbing in for the likes of Serge Ibaka and DeMarre Carroll. His price still isn’t too high, and there is still enough upside to keep using him. His fantasy production isn’t contingent on him scoring points, as he gets a lot of his value from steals, blocks and rebounds and he’s a guy who is going to dink and dunk to put together his production. I’m going to use him a lot again tonight.

POWER FORWARD:

Anthony Davis (19200/11700/10800) – I really hope DeMarcus Cousins misses again tonight, because if he does, I am going to be loading up on Anthony Davis against Dirk Nowitzki, especially at his price on DraftKings. Even if Cousins does play, I am fine with throwing Davis out there in a matchup he should dominate. In fact, it’s highly likely that AD sees Dirk no matter what, because Rick Carlisle will adjust his lineup according to theirs. He’s got 70 point upside tonight and I’m all over that.

Kristaps Porzingis of the New York Knicks

Kristaps Porzingis (13900/7200/7600) – As of right now, both Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony are listed out in the game notes. First, that means is probably going to be a long night for Knicks fans, but they are used to that. Second, it should mean a ton of usage for Porzingis in a matchup that he should be able to dominate. Who is going to defend him if they start him not to Hernangomez? Luke Babbit. OK. That’s fine by me. He could have 35 fantasy points by the half, if that’s the case.

Zach Randolph (12500/5600/6300) – I hate to say it, but I’m not paying this price for Randolph unless Marc Gasol is out. They are doing just fine with him, and I think that if he sits out again it’s elementary to drop Randolph into the lineup. He’s shown that he’s got a ton of upside, and he would be able to school Myles Turner because, well, everybody does. Keep your eyes posted to the updates throughout the day to see if we are going to see a lineup sans Gasol.

CENTER:

Rudy Gobert (16000/9100/8600) – How can we really look past Rudy Gobert right now? Furthermore, how in the world are we going to look past him when he’s up against such luminaries like Kosta Koufus, Willie Cauley-Stein and Skal Labissiere? This is an easy decision for me: ride the hot hand in a plus matchup and reap the benefits. That was an easy one.

Hassan Whiteside of the Miami Heat

Hassan Whiteside (15600/8800/8400) – It’s been pretty easy as of late to just pick the center playing Indiana, and if you don’t want to do that, you can move on to the center playing the Knicks. Tonight, that will be Hassan Whiteside. I feel like it’s been awhile since he’s had a really monster game, so I will have no issues using him in my tournament lineups tonight and hoping for the best. Never hurts to have 60 point upside and not have to pay RWB prices.

Shawn Long (8700/4000/4400) – I might be starting to get obsessed with Long, but he’s too cheap for the upside he possesses. The downside of course is there are a list of things that have to go right in order for us to see Long do damage, one of which includes Jahlil Okafor sitting out. If that happens again tonight, I think you have to at least consider Long for some of your tournament lineups tonight.

 

Slate Strategy

First and foremost, pay attention to the news breaking throughout the day. A lot happens at this point in the year, and you will want to stay on top of things.

I really like building around Rudy Gobert tonight, and where I can, building around Gobert and Hassan Whiteside. I think there is some serious upside with both of these guys.

I also really like the trio of Joseph/DeRozan/Tucker. I think all of those guys can exceed value, and all strike me as being underpriced at this point. Charlotte is not a good defensive team so it is possible that all three of these guys do well.

Finally, I like using Rodney Hood, and that will be accentuated if Gordon Hayward misses again.

Situations to Monitor

Atlanta – The Hawks appear to be without Paul Millsap, Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha again, so it will be the Dennis Schroeder show once more.

Philadelphia – The Sixers might be without Jahlil Okafor and Sergio Rodriguez again tonight. If they are, Richaun Holmes sees another start, while T.J. McConnell plays a lot.

New York – The practice notes as of now list Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony as not starters. This is purely speculation at this point, but it’s worth monitoring.

Miami – The Heat will likely be without Dion Waiters again. That means more time for Tyler Johnson as well as Josh Richardson.

New Orleans – DeMarcus Cousins remains questionable for Wednesday. If he misses, it will be more time for Anthony Davis who should have a monster game.

Memphis – Marc Gasol is questionable again tonight. If he misses, Zach Randolph is most definitely in play.

Utah – Gordon Hayward is questionable for this game. If he misses, George Hill, Joe Ingles, Rodney Hood and Rudy Gobert benefit from higher usage.

 

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