NBA DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 3/11/17
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know! Also, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube Channel!
Pricing is FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings
Kemba Walker (15000/8400/8100) – I feel like so much of this article is going to just be repeating what we saw on here yesterday. Yet again, Kemba Walker is at home in a favorable matchup with a good price. Isn’t this the same story we told yesterday? I believe it is the exact same story that was told, and there is no reason to look elsewhere tonight. The Pelicans should be able to put up a fight against the Hornets, and I think this is one of the best games to start looking at for fantasy plays. I could see this being a close game, which means Kemba should see good minutes, and if he does, there is a good chance he’ll produce for your lineups.
Elfrid Payton (13300/7000/7000) – Next up, much like yesterday, we have Elfrid Payton. Payton had a decent game yesterday, but fell short of the triple-double pace that we saw from him in his previous two games. Cleveland is totally beatable through their guard position, which is why we’ll find Payton here. There is definitely a concern when it comes to a blowout, because this Cavs team is so much better than the Magic, but Cleveland has been letting teams hang around with them more than they should. I wouldn’t go this route in cash games, but they are tournament viable.
Ty Lawson (9800/5500/4900) – Last up at the position, we can take a look at Ty Lawson. He’s been the only reliable guard for the Kings since the All-Star Game, and he’s put up two solid games against this very same Nuggets team in that time period. Why should tonight be any different? I like his price far more on DraftKings than on FanDuel, but that doesn’t mean we won’t play him there. This is a great situation to grab ownership on someone who could end up paying off in a very big way, so there is going to be nothing that keeps him out of at least a few of my lineups.
Tyreke Evans (10600/5900/5400) – The shooting guard position isn’t exactly great tonight, though I can see a reason to spend up on some of the higher dollar guys, but only in tournaments. I am typically looking to spend down somewhat at the position, and that is why we have Evans here. Sure, Evans isn’t a bottom barrel bargain. In fact, it’s going to take a lot of hard work for him to make value. However, he’s one of those plays that can manage to rack up 40 fantasy points in 25 minutes. He’s electric at times on the court, and can do a little bit of everything to post gaudy fantasy lines. He doesn’t do it all the time, which drops him into tournament only option for me, but he’s still worth the look in that format.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (10500/5700/5300) – Tim Hardaway Jr. is back again. It’s tough to know at the time of this writing if his move back to the starting line up will be a long term one, but still, it’s happening, and as long as it is, we should be happy. He can rack fantasy points up very quickly, and if his three-point shot is falling, watch out. Teams playing Memphis can go overlooked at times, but I’m not going to be that guy. All you have to do is look through box scores, and you’ll see guys at this position who’ve had success against them. Still, I think it’s likely that he’ll see low ownership, making him a strong target for your lineups.
Allen Crabbe (7700/3800/3900) – Rounding out the shooting guard position is one of my favorite tournament options at the position: Allen Crabbe. He’s an all or nothing type player, but the benefit is that he has a specific role on this team. As long as we can say that about him, we are in good shape. He shoots a lot of threes, so you’re looking at some bonus points if he gets a handful of those to fall. I could see this game with the Wizards being one that Crabbe gets used heavily in. He needs under 20 fantasy points to hit value, and I think he has 30 point upside here if things fall right. He’s only in play in tournaments, but he’s worth a shot.
LeBron James (19600/116000/11000) – LeBron James has been on fire lately, so there is no question as to why we find him on our list tonight. The price is moving up, but at this point in the year, feeling like they need to fight for the top spot, he’s seeing heavy usage. He’s probably got a floor of around 50 fantasy points right now, with upside into the 60’s. This isn’t a situation like Thursday where there were only 5 games on the slate and he was an easier choice. This is a nine game slate with a lot of options. Even with that being the case, he’s still one of the top plays tonight.
Harrison Barnes (12600/6000/6400) – I haven’t really been playing Harrison Barnes since Dirk Nowitzki started playing more, which is really saying something. I don’t know why, but this just seems like it’s a game that would be worth using him in. The Suns are a fast paced team that can really give up some monster fantasy games. Because of that, you have to look at a guy like Barnes, who can really provide an all around stat line. The Suns are actually playing well enough that I think they’ll be able to hand around enough to make Barnes finish nicely.
Otto Porter (12300/5900/6200) – I admittedly don’t know how much I love Porter tonight, but man does he have some upside. I think that is what really made me put up on this list tonight. Perhaps it’s a situation where I just like to play against Portland because they can give up some big fantasy games. Either way, I think he’s priced fine on all major sites and he is a guy I wouldn’t mind running out in some of my tournaments tonight.
Anthony Davis (18200/10900/9900) – I know this is a risky play, but I cannot help but to love it. Really, both Boogie and Davis are in play, but something just keeps telling me that AD is the way to go. Yes, he could fall down again and miss an entire half [which cost me probably a few thousand; thanks a lot], but we aren’t betting on him doing that. We are banking on him playing 35 minutes against a well rested Charlotte team who just blew out the Magic tonight. The upside goes way beyond the price tag, and I am willing to assume the risk in hopes of grabbing 60 fantasy points.
Marvin Williams (11200/5900/5600) – It probably isn’t the greatest strategy playing Williams against the Twin Towers [cheap pop for late 80’s/early 90’s WWF references], but it’s hard to argue with a guy who is getting 38-40 minutes right now if the game is staying close. He only played 32 last night and cleared 45 fantasy points! That’s crazy! I love the upside for him in this match because his price hasn’t caught up with all of the recent production. I would still say that there is some risk because of the fact that it’ll be much harder to grab boards tonight, but I will have some exposure.
Gorgui Dieng (10200/5600/5200) – I hate starting things out by saying things like “I just don’t know about this guy”, but really, what else can be said? I could see, I guess, how Nemanja Belicja fit the Warriors mold better, but it isn’t like Dieng was playing poorly. I really, truly question his mentality with things sometimes. Dieng is an all around strong player, and I’m hoping based off how Milwaukee tends to play, that Dieng will be on the court more as opposed to Belijca. After being a lock play in cash games earlier in the year, he is a much more risky prospect because of the minutes he is losing. I think he should still be in a good position tonight, and will make a lot of my lineups.
Dwight Howard (12700/7100/6400) – Dwight Howard is too cheap. Furthermore, everyone hates Dwight Howard [in the vein of Everybody Hates Chris. What is up with all these outdated references tonight?]. This is an ideal spot for me to roll him out, as the Grizzlies play big ball, and really won’t cater that fact to anyone. Thus, I think you could see the higher end of minutes for Dwight tonight. $6.4k on DraftKings is just silly for someone with the type of upside he’s got, and while he isn’t my favorite play today, he’s a guy I’ll be loading up on in tournaments.
Jusuf Nurkic (12600/6800/6700) – After a 77 point game, and a game in the 50’s just a little more than a week ago, this is the going rate for Nurkic? You can expect insane ownership on him tonight. For me, in tournaments, I may fade him and just play the ownership game and hope that he gets in foul trouble, but it’s tough doing that with someone at this price who can put up a game like that. There is nothing special about the Wizards in terms of their defense, and while they certainly are not the Lakers or the Sixers, Nurkic could still have a great game against them.
Alan Williams (12300/5600/6500) – Let’s wrap things up at the position tonight with Alan Williams, who will have 100% ownership by me on FanDuel at a laughable price. The guy has been a double-double machine since the break, and he faces off with a Dallas team that could be without Nerlens Noel again, and has nobody who can actually play physically with him. He doesn’t have Nurk upside [at least I don’t think he does], but he does have 40-point upside, so that makes him playable in all formats on all sites.
For me, I think it’s likely that I’ll start building the vast majority of my lineups around LeBron James. I think what you get with him is the safest floor and the most realistic ceiling. Yes, it is a little bit scary to think that we might be looking at a blowout, but the Cavs just haven’t been looking like that as of late.
From there, or if you just don’t want to run with LBJ, I would try to figure out which one of Boogie or AD you would want, again, if any. I think one of the two of these guys could come through with something pretty impressive. Who in the hell do you put on them? I mean seriously. There is no hope to cover them, so they could each finish with 20/15 and I wouldn’t be surprised. I think I’m siding with Davis in the short term, but that could change.
Outside of that, it’s trying to dig for value. Make sure to check out our YouTube Channel by clicking here for some of our top value plays.
Situations to Monitor
San Antonio – Oh, great. Just what we need is some legitimate San Antonio controversy. We know Kawhi Leonard is out. Tony Parker is questionable. The Spurs offense has looked questionable. The Spurs are facing the #1 seed in the West, the Golden State Warriors. It’s going to be tough for me to want to trust anything involving this team tonight.
Dallas – Nerlens Noel sat out Friday with a sore knee, so it’s likely that he’s questionable for Saturday. With no Noel, I think the only player I like more is Alan Williams, and he plays for Phoenix.
Orlando – Nikola Vucevic is still questionable. Bismack Biyombo will continue to see some more minutes, but don’t be shocked if Stephen Zimmerman starts to steal more if Biyombo continues to struggle.
PG – Kyrie Irving, Mike Conley, Jamal Murray
SG – DeMar DeRozan, Devin Booker, Gary Harris
SF – Danilo Gallinari, Maurice Harkless, Bojan Bogdanovic
PF – Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, Willie Cauley-Stein
C – DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe, Kosta Koufus