NBA DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 10/21/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Honestly, the first half of these early games are fucking laughable. No Myles Turner? NURK ALERT! NO ALERT! Nurk was absolute trash, and is likely to be well off my radar. He dropped weight in the offseason and looks at this point like a little bitch getting handled by the likes of Domantas Sabonis. Clearly, at this point all tact is out the window for me. Our next shit show is Robert Covington, who managed more fouls than offensive stats in the first half. I have no doubt that he will not be able to recoup and put together a strong second half. Joel Embiid was really nothing special tonight either. I know it is just the first half, but especially for a guy like Nurk, 5.5 points means the night is over. To put into perspective, he needs roughly 20 points and 20 rebounds in the second half to have a big night. That is not a joke, but the proper way to assess things. But hey, at least Aron Baynes had a good first half despite 3 fouls (he probably is not going to play in the second half). Please feel free to use the comment section to vent about your own donkeys. It feels good to vent.

Pricing is FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

GUARDS:

Wesley Matthews (10200/5400/5200) – The first thing that jumps out at me is Matthews and his price going up against the Rockets tonight. I do wonder how big of a deal it will be that Chris Paul is out, as he really did not seem like a natural fit in their opening game. Regardless, this game should be able to stay close enough, and Matthews should be a solid part of what they do.

DJ Augustin (6200/3000/3100) – Injuries have been insane to start the season, and Elfrid Payton looks like he might miss this game. I had him written up, but had to pivot. I have no idea who is going to start if he misses, but it is worth noting that Mack started the second half. As a minimum priced player who has shown some upside in years past when put in this situation, I am willing to take some shots with him.

Dillon Brooks (7800/4000/4000) – I am a huge fan of a guy like Brooks because he is priced so low that it is hard for him to disappoint. I also like getting in on these guys earlier than the rest of the players. True, early would have been on Wednesday night, but I will bet that most players still have no idea who he is and even if they do, I highly doubt they want to play him. I am a gambler, and I will take the risk with him and hope that he can do somewhat like what he did in their first game.

FORWARDS/CENTERS:

Blake Griffin (18200/9800/9800) – Yes, his price is high, but this is what we are going to have to get used to paying for Griffin. The Suns are awful. This is written before they play the Lakers, so this is also the second game in as many days for the Suns, which could mean for blowout. I do not really want to spend too much time going over something that is pretty obvious, but Blake is a strong play.

James Johnson (10200/5300/5200) – Hassan Whiteside has already been ruled out, as has Myles Turner, so this seems like it will be a night of small ball. Johnson is priced way, way too low on DraftKings, and this screams like it should be a spot where he should be able to go for 35+ fantasy points. He should be wildly popular, and the Pacers have been a disaster on defense already this year, playing on the back end of a back to back, so I would expect Johnson to feast tonight.

Nikola Jokic (17200/9000/9300) – The Kings should be a team that struggle to defend opposing centers all year, but it is very tough to want to play him with how the last forty or so games have gone for him. He has been one of those guys who started white hot, but often missed hitting value due to a huge price tag. This is lower than we saw him a lot last year, but I still do not feel easy about it. He managed minutes in the mid-30s, and if he sees that against the Kings, he should find himself in the 40 point range.

 

Strategy

I am off to a terrible start to the NBA season, so perhaps take all of this with a grain of salt. Really, the thought process has been solid, and poor performances are a reminder that this is absolutely gambling. No matter what your research leads you to, there is an element of luck involved, so it is worth reminding that it is at least some portion gambling.

I am going to revolve this section all year as to how I approach it, so lets do it this way tonight.

Teams to attack

Chicago Bulls – The Bulls have a horrid starting lineup. It basically might as well be a G-League (stupid, stupid, stupid name) team. However, this game is at home, and I just have a gut feeling that they are going to keep this thing close. LaMarcus Aldridge looks like a cash game lock.

Indiana Pacers – They are not a good team. I expect them to give up tons of points, which puts a lot of Heat players on my radar.

Sacramento Kings – The Kings are also really bad, so I expect lots of points to be scored by the Nuggets. After fading them opening night, you can find some strong plays here.

Phoenis Suns – Fast pace and no defense makes the Clippers strong plays.

 

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