NBA DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 10/20/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Pricing is FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

GUARDS:

Lonzo Ball (12700/6800/6800) – At time of the writing of this article, there is about three hours until the tipoff of the Lakers/Clippers game. Because of this, we get the benefit of his price not rising. That could be a good thing or a bad thing. I am personally expecting Ball to come out like Ben Simmons, and if that is the case, then he should be a good bet to exceed value against a Phoenix Suns team that looked like an absolute joke on Wednesday night. UPDATE: Ball was not great last night, but I would put that on his teammates and somewhat Patrick Beverley. His assist total could be tripled if his teammates both made the shots he facilitated (and they should have) or used his pass as the launch point. There was a lot of secondary passing after he moved the ball, which reduced his total significantly. The matchup goes from Patrick Beverley who is a class defender to Eric Bleedsomuchdefensively, and he should be encouraged to take more shots as well. The price sees high – until he manages a triple double. I may be way too high on him, but if I am not, I think you will see him at low ownership tonight as a result of last night.

Darren Collison (11500/5600/5800) – Collison looked awesome against Brooklyn on Wednesday night, and even though the Blazers are not as porous defensively as the Nets, I suspect this is another good spot for him. It is tough to see how the minutes are going to go, as he did only see 30, and I do prefer players who are going to sit in the mid-30 minute range. The price is still low enough on him that I think he is worth the play in any format.

Terry Rozier (8400/4600/4200) – Quietly, Rozier has been awesome over his first two games of the season. With Gordon Hayward now out and Marcus Smart having to shift into the starting lineup, Rozier has to see his bench role grow even more. He showed great versatility against the Bucks, which are a tough defensive matchup, and he should see more room to work with this Sixers defense, or lack thereof. This is the game to look at when it comes to fantasy production, and I am expecting Rozier to have a big night at his price. UPDATE: Marcus Smart looks like he will not be playing tonight. In my opinion, that bumps up Irving and Brown, but Rozier may be the biggest beneficiary. He has looked like someone who is an all around contributor, and as long as he is doing more than hitting shots, he makes a great play in all formats. He is a cash game lock for me tonight.

FORWARDS/CENTERS:

Nikola Vucevic (14000/8400/7600) – I am hoping that Vucevic comes through here. He just scares me. This matchup screams smash spot for him. We just saw Myles Turner decimate this team and with Aaron Gordon currently questionable, things look like they are lining up for Vuc tonight. He has a pretty solid shot at a double double, which is beneficial on DraftKings, where his price is the most palatable. He makes a nice option tonight in what should be a higher scoring game.

Ben Simmons (13800/7700/7500) – Two things I think we can say with confidence is that Ben Simmons is a stud who should be able to stuff the stat sheet each night and that playing defense will not be something that the Celtics are going to do, at least during the early part of the year. Joel Embiid is still on a pitch count, though it is obvious that they will not adhere too closely to it. The offense should run through Simmons quite a bit, and this is another awesome spot for him. I think he is still priced a little bit too low, and it would not shock me to see him come close to 50 DraftKings points tonight.

Jordan Bell (7400/4200/3800) – This is not a layup situation right now, and it is probably better suited for tournaments than cash games. As of right now, Draymond Green is doubtful for this game against the Pelicans. If he misses, the athletic Bell should get the start. He is still somewhat raw, but he should be a good bet to see minutes in the mid-20s. Yes, he is going to be going up against Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, which could mean foul trouble, but I think he should be able to hang in there long enough to exceed value. Pay attention to the injury reports before using him. UPDATE: Well, it did not take too long for Draymond to go from doubtful to definitely playing. Bell is an after thought, and it does lower my interest in many of the other Warriors as well. Jaylen Brown is priced too low considering his should see even more responsibility tonight.

Strategy

As always with the NBA, it is vital to pay attention to the injury reports. Tonight is a big one with Draymond Green doubtful/questionable. Not only does Jordan Bell become a solid play, but usage for their big three likely goes up some. Not just usage, but assist rate, which could be important and underlooked by many DFS players tonight.

I think there are still enough undervalued players tonight that I would prefer going with stacks of them as opposed to trying the stars/scrubs approach. DFS players will still try to do that, and it will not be successful, though they will proudly let us know of their minimum cash while doing it (but only 4 of their 20 lineups).

Based on how things have gone thus far, both Boston and Philly look like defensive liabilities – and they play each other. The Lakers and the Suns also look to be a game to stack. Marquesse Chriss anyone? This is a decent buy in spot after the abortion he put together on Wednesday. You can pretty well guarantee no one is going to buy in on him.

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