Welcome back to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. Tonight, we get a 6 game slate on basketball. It’s that time of year and things will be interesting, as players are getting called at the last minute left and right.
Checking out the Vegas lines, we have no games under 200. We have two games under 210: CHI/IND and CHA/PHI. Three games are under 220: BKN/ORL, HOU/CLE and OKC/DET. Finally, the WAS/GS game has a total of 226.5. The only games that have major blowout potential are CHA/PHI and WAS/GS, but honestly, Golden State has been allowing everyone to hang in with them.
On to my favorites!
Russell Westbrook – See Westbrook, play Westbrook. I can’t even come up with any other way to put it. He is basically a lock for 40 points, and a get bet for 50 points. There is going to be value every night moving forward, so you might as well play him.
John Wall – Wall always scares me because he seems to always fit his fantasy scoring into 1 quarter. The matchup is great, as Golden State seemingly cannot do anything on the defensive end. There is a good chance it turns into a duel between he and Curry or he and Klay, and he is a good bet to hit value tonight.
Elfrid Payton – The Elf is no longer on the shelf, and he is playing very well. I always struggle to want to suggest him, but due to his recent play, price and opponent, he makes a fantastic play at a great price.
James Harden – Cleveland is going to be without LeBron James tonight, so the Rockets should be able to keep this game close, as the Cavs don’t play well without LeBron. Harden is as steady as they come, and should be a likely candidate to hit value.
Klay Thompson – Klay is hitting his shot well right now, and as long as he has that stroke going, he needs to be on your radar. The Wizards cannot guard the wings, and that is where Steph and Klay make their money.
Iman Shumpert – If you are looking for a good, minimum priced play tonight, Shumpert could be your guy. He should see good minutes with LeBron out, and Houston is a great matchup for his skill set. Don’t be surprised if he is in the mid-20’s at the end of the night.
Kevin Durant – I’m basically playing Durant as long as he’s playing. The game against the Pistons should be able to stay close, and that pretty much guarantees him to hit to 40 point mark, with the potential into the 50’s.
Paul George – Chicago is not a good defensive team anymore. Chicago is on a back to back. Indiana is not on a back to back. Paul George is good. Isn’t math fun!? Seriously though, George is in a good spot and is a fair pivot to Durant.
Michael Beasley – If you are looking a little cheaper, then Beasley could be in a good position against a LeBron-less Cavs team. His price does make my slightly uncomfortable, but he should be a good bet to get his tonight.
Kevin Love – I tend to like to target Love with LeBron out, but it is only multiplied by the fact that they are playing the Rockets tonight. The Rockets cannot guard any position, but especially the power forward position. Love is at a great price right now, so take advantage while you can.
Marvin Williams – Williams is usually a good, safe candidate, but has been fairly disappointing over the last few games, as for the most part has the rest of the team. The Sixers have a way of fixing those things though. I expect him to be under-owned, and could be a great variation play.
Carl Landry – This pick does hinge on the health of Nerlens Noel, but if Noel is out, I think Landry becomes a great play. He is priced cheap for his upside and would make a great cash game play.
Andre Drummond – The Pistons have finally decided to implement Drummond more in their offense, after weeks of Reggie Jackson charging the rim with futility and KCP chucking up shots left and right. Adams and Kanter shouldn’t be able to stop him tonight.
Brook Lopez – I love playing centers against Orlando, and now it is Lopez’s turn. It should be a good night for the big man, and 40 points is certainly well within reach with upside exceeding 50.
Ian Mahinmi – While everyone may be looking up at center tonight, there is Mahinmi sitting near the bottom of the price list. The Bulls defend the center position poorly, and Mahinmi should be able to make value in short order tonight.
Good luck to everyone! Let’s all win some cash!