NBA FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Picks – 2/6/17
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!
Pricing is FD/DK
Jrue Holiday (8000/7900) – I really like a lot of the options tonight at the top. Westbrook is always in a good position for a big game, and John Wall vs. Kyrie Irving is a matchup that usually pays dividends. Unfortunately, I think that all of those guys check in at just slightly overpriced for me. I know the same can be said about Holiday, but this matchup should be highly beneficial to his upside, considering the pace of play we typically get from the Suns. I think Holiday is probably better suited for tournament play, but he could end up posting a nice game tonight.
D’Angel Russell (6500/7000) – Russell has been playing top notch basketball since returning from his injury, and a matchup against the Knicks shouldn’t be difficult for him to take advantage of as well. I think his floor in this game is probably 30, while his upside goes into the 40’s, and potentially more if he were to get hot. I actually prefer Derrick Rose a little bit more than Brandon Jennings, because Jennings can rack the fouls up on his defender a little quicker. I think Russell is a great play in both formats at this price.
Yogi Ferrell (5600/6000) – If Deron Williams remains out tonight, Ferrell is probably the best option at his price range. Here’s a guy getting minutes in the late 30’s, against one of the worst teams in the league at guarding the position. I think he could put up another 30+ point game in this matchup, and for his price, that is a beautiful thing. I wouldn’t mind him in tournaments even if Williams does play, because you have to assume his ownership would drop considerably, and this is a still a team short on guards.
Dion Waiters (7200/6900) – If Waiters manages to take his recent play into the second half of the season, he could very well be in contention for Most Improved Player of the year. His price is finally to a point where it is tough to want to look his way, but he has been playing very well, so it isn’t a stretch. Minnesota is still finding their footing defensively, and are now without a starter in Zach LaVine for the remainder of the year. I think he is usuable in all formats tonight.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (5200/5500) – This is a perfect tournament scenario for me. Here you have a guy in Hardaway who has been lights out, and is priced at a point where he still has so much room for upside, going against a Utah team playing at a snails pace with a strong defensive identity. The matchup should negate a lot of the increased ownership that Hardaway might have seen against a less defensively stout team, but if he’s on, it doesn’t matter who he is playing. I love him for tournaments tonight, but would not put him anywhere near my cash games.
Jamal Crawford (4700/4700) – Crawford is back in the game now, after suffering through one of the worst slumps of his career. The price is kind of a joke, as he could be in a position to have exceeded 5x value on this price after the 3rd quarter. I think he probably plays a bit better for tournament action, but I don’t hate it for cash games, as he is the unquestioned sixth man that is playing at a high clip.
Gordon Hayward (7600/7500) – It looks like Hayward is back into form after a few games where he was genuinely struggling. The price hasn’t caught up to what he is likely to give you, meaning he’s got the ability to be used in tournaments as well. Call me crazy, but I like this game tonight to provide some fantasy upside that many may not really look to strongly at. I think Hayward will cross the 40 point mark once again this evening.
Shabazz Muhammad (4700/4300) – Muhammad is always a risky proposition. He’s an extremely undisciplined basketball player, but that doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing, especially in DFS. He tends to have a one track mind when he gets his hands on the ball; score, score, score. It does lead to a lot of poor shots and turnovers, but it can also lead to a lot of points, rebounds and putbacks. He likes to hang around the rim, and even though this isn’t a great matchup, it’s one he could take advantage of.
T.J. Warren (4200/4300) – Right now, Warren is playing some top notch hoops, and his price isn’t moving. I love that. We saw him put up multiple games in the 40’s to start the year out, so we know the upside is there, and there is no reason he can’t see minutes in the late 30’s again, and needing just over 20 points to make value, he should be a good bet for your cash games as well. There is nothing that should keep him from doing this against New Orleans.
Anthony Davis (11300/10300) – Davis didn’t come through for us the other night, but that’s OK, because he’ll have a great chance to do that tonight against the Suns. I always get nervous playing him because he is so injury prone, but he has upside that pretty much no one else has if he’s on point. He’s already had one game over 80 fantasy points this year, and something tells me that it won’t be his last. I like him for around 60 points tonight.
Nikola Jokic (10900/9000) – It’s quite amazing the difference on his price on FanDuel and DraftKings, but I actually don’t mind him on either site. He already has a 60 point fantasy game against Dallas this year, so it isn’t like he wouldn’t be able to do it again. He’s an elite athlete, and I could see him putting up that huge game, but I’d still probably prefer to use him in tournament lineups tonight.
Lavoy Allen (3500/3700) – My biggest regret from Saturday night was not playing Lavoy Allen. I neglected to play him because I didn’t like any of the high end options at the small forward position. I had other areas I could have upgraded, but I didn’t. As long as Thaddeus Young is out, I won’t make the same mistake twice. He showed he has 10x upside on Saturday, and the matchup isn’t any worse against an OKC team sporting only Steven Adams in the frontcourt. At the very least, he should come in with around 20 fantasy points, still making him a nice option.
DeMarcus Cousins (11000/10900) – Cousins is just so good, and I don’t see any reason to not use him right now. Robin Lopez and any other Bulls big man will have no ability to deal with him this evening. I think he’s got unlimited upside in a contest like this, so he’ll make his way into quite a few of my lineups tonight.
Andre Drummond (8500/8300) – We just saw Hassan Whiteside put almost 60 fantasy points up on the Sixers on Saturday night, so there is no reason we shouldn’t see a big game out of Drummond. He’s already had some pretty stellar outings this year, and this should just be another one for him.
Guillermo Hernangomez (5300/5200) – Hernangomez did us well on Saturday night against the Cavs, and gets a much better matchup here against the Lakers. He is getting the minutes, and the production is coming as a result. I think he could flirt with points in the mid-30’s again tonight, and we perhaps haven’t seen his ceiling yet. I would only use him in tournaments though.