NBA FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Picks – 1/27/17
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!
Pricing is FD/DK
John Wall (10200/9900) – Wall checks in as my top point guard play of the day. Dennis Schroeder isn’t exactly known as a defensive point guard, and Wall is easily one of the best guards in the league. I think a 50 point game is a high possibility here, which will basically get hit to the 5x point. One thing about DFS is that you don’t always need the best point per dollar plays at each position. Sometimes you just need a guy who is going to get what you need him to. Wall looks to me to be that guy tonight. Isaiah Thomas is also a very strong play.
T.J. McConnell (5600/5300) – McConnell really doesn’t get the respect he deserves when it comes to DFS. He is typically around 5% owned in tournaments, and on a large slate like tonight, that is where I expect him to fall. Patrick Beverley is a tough defender, but McConnell isn’t a prolific scorer, so I think it somewhat counteracts what Beverley does well. I think he is likely to end up with a few steals from Harden in this game, and I think a 30 point outing is well within reach tonight.
Patty Mills (4000/4600) – Mills is only in play if Tony Parker is out tonight, which looks to be up in the air as of now. He’s been very effective off the bench, and while New Orleans bench can be good at scoring, it isn’t good at playing defense. I don’t see him having a tournament winning outing here, but I think he could definitely be a top point per dollar play at the position, making him worth a look in tournaments.
Dwyane Wade (7900/7000) – Wade has been playing so well that is making us all check our calendars to see what year it is. He’s been a very strong play for the last week, and a revenge game against Miami provides another good opportunity for him to keep his hot playing going. The price is getting up there, but he has near 50 point upside in this contest, so there is still some room for upside here.
Dion Waiters (6200/6800) – I said this last time I wrote a breakdown: I love Waiters upside in tournaments, but I still need another month of play like this before I am willing to commit and play him in my cash games. The price has come up, but he still has a lot of room for upside in it, as noted by having a few 40 point fantasy games in his last several. I don’t think the matchup is of concern, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him with over 30 points again.
Courtney Lee (4200/3900) – Lee is what he is: a guy who is probably not going to make you rich, but also probably not going to cause you to lose your money. Sure, there will be games this year where he crosses the 30 point mark, but for the most part, he is hovering around the 20 point mark, giving him a floor that is attractive for cash games. I have a good feeling about this Bobcats/Knicks game, and I will have at least a smattering of Lee in tournaments just to play it safe.
Carmelo Anthony (8000/7200) – I can’t exactly put my finger on why, but Carmelo Anthony is my favorite player in this slate. He’s been pretty stellar as of late, and his price on DraftKings is laughable for what his upside is. Charlotte’s defense has fallen off a cliff this year, and Carmelo should not have any issues carving them up. I am going to make a rare prediction: I am going to call Carmelo scoring over 50 actual points in this game. I think when you see the winning tournament lineups tonight, Carmelo’s name will be on it.
Robert Covington (5600/5700) – Right now, Joel Embiid is listed as doubtful for this game, and with the All-Star break around the corner, I just don’t see any reason for Brett Brown to risk his superstar. With Embiid out, Covington has far higher upside because he is able to get more shots off. He is able to do it all on the court, and if his shot is falling, he’s a guy who can get his score into the 40 point range at a steal of a price.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (5400/5300) – With Rudy Gay out for the year, MKG will take his role of the guy that I hate playing but will when it makes sense. Early in the year, every time I played him, he bombed. He seems to be a little more consistent as of late, and the Knicks have been very lax on defense this year. I think he should put up a pretty nice stat line here, and I think he’s someone that can be used in either format.
Kevin Love (7900/8100) – I don’t know why I feel this way, but something tells me that Lue is going to sit LeBron tonight. He’s played over 40 minutes in three straight games, and even though the All-Star break is getting closer, it isn’t a situation where the team needs to push him any harder. Even if he doesn’t sit, Love is a fantastic play, who should be able to do what he wants against a Brooklyn team that is highly unlikely to have any answer for him. The price has even come down a bit, giving us further reason to lock him in.
Terrence Jones (5700/6900) – On FanDuel, Jones makes an excellent play that I would use if Anthony Davis is out in a heartbeat. I understand this is a tough matchup against the Spurs, but Jones plays at a high level with no Davis in the lineup. The Spurs have actually given up some pretty big fantasy games over the last few weeks, and there is no reason Jones couldn’t add his name to that. On DraftKings, the story is a little different as the price is dramatically different.
Nerlens Noel (4600/5700) – On Wednesday night, Noel was over 65% owned in the large entry tournaments that I was in. That’s absurd. If Embiid is out again, I think we will see much of the same thing, despite his price coming up some. The matchup against the Rockets is a nice one, and it will be a pace up matchup for the Sixers. Noel should see plenty of chances for rebounds and blocks in this game, and should very easily exceed 5x value, with upside for 10x at the price on FanDuel.
Marc Gasol (8700/8000) – Marc Gasol is playing some of the best ball in the league right now, and is coming off an absolutely huge game. While it is unlikely that he’ll reach the point he was at last game, the matchup against Portland is an attractive one that he should be able to take advantage of. The price is still fair for what he’s capable of, and he’ll make a lot of my lineups in both formats.
Brook Lopez (7400/6500) – Lopez seems risky on paper, as the Cavs are the Cavs, and Brooklyn is, well, awful. However, the Cavs have been playing more like the Nets than World Champions as of late, so this could be a great spot to get a guy like Lopez with his high upside at a low cost. I suspect he’ll see laughably low ownership, and on DraftKings, he’s a no brainer for me in at least some of my tournament lineups, as he could end up at 50 points if the game stays close.
Willie Reed (3900/4700) – Right now, Hassan Whiteside is questionable with an ankle issue, and if he is to miss, throwing Reed out there in your tournament lineups is going to be something that I do without hesitation. We’ve seen him put up some big games without Whiteside this year, and the Bulls and Robin Lopez aren’t the most intimidating matchup. I think I’d stick to using him in tournaments though.