NBA FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Picks – 1/23/17
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!
Pricing is FD/DK
Kemba Walker (7900/8100) – So, let’s talk about how bad Kemba was on Saturday in a perfect situation against the Nets at home. Seriously, it doesn’t get much better than that. Unfortunately, that just proves that sometimes things in DFS aren’t going to be perfect. Maybe Kemba is a guy who plays better when he has to step up to the competition. He will get just that tonight as the Hornets take on John Wall and the Wizards at home. The Wizards have been one of my favorite teams to target in DFS, so I think we could very well get that big outing from Kemba that we were expecting on Saturday.
Derrick Rose (6700/6400) – Rose has been playing some awesome basketball as of late, and I don’t think it will end here. Jeff Teague is defensively inept, and Rose should continue his stellar play. He’s definitely got 40 point upside in this contest, and he’s shown that it’s even higher than that as of late. I am trying not to get too over excited about Rose, because we know his downside is much like Anthony Davis. You can’t look at it that way, though, and I am all over the Rose play tonight.
Raymond Felton (4900/5600) – I know he didn’t hit 5x value last time out against the Nuggets, but I am going to play Felton at this price all day against the Hawks. Dennis Schroeder is one of the worst defenders in the league, and even though Felton might not get the start, or it might be situational, he should still see a ton of run, and he has a lot of room for upside here. I wouldn’t rule out a 30 point outing, and I think the worse case scenario is what we saw on Saturday.
Nicolas Batum (7300/7700) – I should start this off by saying that I really love this Charlotte/Washington game tonight, and I think I’ll have more than a few iterations of a game stack. Batum has been playing some pretty solid basketball as of late, and really all season. The price is way too low for what I think he could end up doing, and for that, I would much rather use him than some of the higher priced options like Giannis and Harden.
Bradley Beal (6700/6700) – Jumping off what I said above with Batum, I would like to mention Beal. He’s not the consistent option that Batum is but in terms of tournament plays, he’s a great one because he can got hot from deep and the points just start to add up. I love the price, and on a night where a site like DraftKings is running some big contests, I think I’d rather use a balanced lineup approach in an effort to hope that each of those plays goes off for a big night.
Dejounte Murray (3800/4100) – Here is one exception I would be willing to make, and I only wish that Murray was shooting guard eligible on DraftKings like he is on FanDuel. His price is way too low, and I’m assuming that Tony Parker will be out again tonight. If he is, Murray has a great matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, and I think he should be able to rattle off 20-25 points, making him a really nice play tonight with a safe floor and a higher ceiling for the price.
Kawhi Leonard (9800/9400) – I would have to say that it is getting a bit hard to want to buy in on Kawhi at this price, as I don’t know how much more upside there is left in this price. I would say that he’s been so good lately, and that the Nets are an awful team that he should be able to carve up pretty easily. I think that he should be a good bet for 40 fantasy points today, but he really needs to be far closer to that 50 point mark to make me feel comfortable. I’m siding with cash game playability due to the floor, but I don’t know how much upside is left for tournaments.
Otto Porter (6300/6200) – The small forward position is one that the Hornets just don’t do really well at guarding, and Porter is the kind of player I want in a matchup like this. His ability to stuff the stat sheet makes him a great tournament play, because if all facets of his game are doing well, he’ll probably be posting a game of 7x value. He’s one of the few players that is usually a good play for cash games, but always has that huge upside for tournaments as well.
Caris LeVert (4300/3900) – I think that the vast majority of DFS players will take one look at the matchup and run, but not this guy. This guy is either crafty or stupid. I can definitely see San Antonio blowing the doors off of Brooklyn, and if that is the case, LeVert could end up with minutes in the mid-20’s. If he sees that type of time, he could easily have a game of 7x-8x value, which is something that is going to win a tournament. The downside here is that he sees 15 minutes and has 11 fantasy points.
Tobias Harris (6100/6200) – Harris is a top cash game play most nights, and tonight is no different as the Pistons have a home meeting with the Sacramento Kings. He typically doesn’t have a ton of upside for tournaments, but he should still be considered because there will be some nights where the chalk hits. I would expect him to hit right around the 30 point mark, making him a good options for what we want tonight.
David Lee (5100/5500) – David Lee is a great play right now at this price. The matchup couldn’t be better, and I am assuming that he should be able to cross the 30 point marker tonight. The Spurs could decide to rest some of their starters with this game being one that could be a blowout, and in that case, Lee could be even better. Either way, he’s got a ton of upside at a low price.
Jon Leuer (4500/4300) – Jon Leuer is back, and it didn’t take too long for him to post a nice game against the Wizards. Things are just as nice tonight against the Kings, and with seeing minutes in the mid-20’s and averaging around a point a minute, Leuer could be a great option in both cash and tournaments. He’s great salary relief if you think the best strategy is going to be loading up on studs tonight.
DeMarcus Cousins (10900/10500) – Cousins is a beast, and even though the Pistons play more of a defensive type of game, Cousins should still be able to come close to the 50 point mark. His upside is into the 60’s every night he is on the court, and I think we’ll see him flex his stuff tonight. Andre Drummond is good, but Cousins is an entirely different kind of good. I would expect a huge double double out of him tonight, and I’m going to load up on him in my tournament lineups tonight.
DeAndre Jordan (8400/7900) – I refuse to give up on DeAndre Jordan, despite the fact that the Hawks have been pretty good as of late. Blake Griffin could be back, but I don’t think that really brings his value down that much. He’s still got 50+ point upside tonight considering he hit the mid-30’s in just 27 minutes on Saturday. He’s a tournament only option for me, but has tons to like.
Al Jefferson (3900/3000) – I’m mentioning Jefferson tonight because the I didn’t bite the bullet against the Lakers, and think he could have a similar game against the Knicks. He’s got to be considered on DraftKings at minimum price, because he could end up posting a 10x value game if things go right. I wouldn’t use him any more than here or there, but I think he can help stretch your budget.