NBA DFS Picks – 12/17/16
Saturday night NBA DFS is going to be very interesting, to say the least. We have two games with spreads of 14 or more. The Indiana/Detroit game has a low total, but screams double-OT to me, but Atlanta/Charlotte is one that I would be fine avoiding, aside from a tournament play here or there. These picks will be used to help you create cash game and tournament lineups that should aid you in winning your games tonight.
Pricing is FD/DK
Kyrie Irving (7300/7300) – The Vegas total and spread implies a high scoring game where the Cavs should run away with things. Even though the Cavs are well rested, and the Lakers are traveling on a back to back, I somehow see this game being much, much closer than it should be. I think the Cavs big three will be forced into big minutes after taking the night off on Wednesday, and each of them should be able to hit value in this one. Kyrie’s price is fair and this is a good matchup against D’Angelo Russell who is still developing as a player.
Patrick Beverly (5400/5200) – Don’t look now, but Patrick Beverly almost finished with a triple double last night, and gets arguably a better matchup tonight against the Timberwolves, in the game of the night I am most looking forward to seeing. I think he should be a good bet to pass up the 25 fantasy point mark, and anywhere in the 30’s is a legitimate landing spot for where his total ends on the night.
Brandon Jennings (5000/5500) – The Nuggets are an ideal matchup, and I just can’t trust Derrick Rose. I have a sneaking suspicion that he will play, but something tells me this could end up being a matchup that Jennings benefits from more. You cannot risk using Rose or Jennings in your cash game lineups tonight, but I think they both have the ability to be played in tournaments. I would go with Jennings of the two as he should have far less ownership that Rose.
James Harden (11800/11600) – The total on this Timberwolves/Rockets game is the second highest on the slate, and it also includes one of the tightest spreads. I think this game should be close and high scoring, and my gut tells me we could see this game exceeding the score of the Warriors/Blazers game. Harden is going to be the guy I build my lineups around today, and I think he’s a good bet to threaten, or potentially amass, a triple double tonight.
Zach LaVine (6500/6700) – LaVine has been playing very good basketball in the last few weeks, and I don’t see things stopping tonight. It could be that the Rockets choose to put Patrick Beverly on LaVine to try to slow him down, but LaVine’s size could pose a problem for him. I think he’s got a floor of around 30 points, and if everything goes how I think it might, you could certainly see him finish the night with close to, or exceeding, 40 fantasy points.
Gary Harris (4800/4700) – Gary Harris makes my shooting guard decision very tough, as he is priced at a point where he could hit 8x value tonight. The Knicks are “good” at defending the shooting guard position, but so are the Blazers, and he dropped almost 40 fantasy points on them. I think he is a good bet to come very, very close to the 30 point mark, and it is clear to see where the upside is at in a matchup like this.
LeBron James (102000/9800) – James makes for a great cash game play, because even if this game does turn into a blowout, it is highly likely that James will have done enough to come very, very close to the 50 fantasy point mark. If the game stays close, we are talking really unlimited upside. We’ve seen LeBron break the 70’s this year, and he could very easily get into the 60’s in a matchup like this, making him a great option in either format, especially at his price.
Andrew Wiggins (6400/6300) – I think my favorite plays on the Wolves side tonight is likely to be Wiggins. He’s really coming into his own, and is showing why he was one of the most highly touted draft picks in recent times. He is starting to become less scoring dependent, and is putting together games with more boards, assists and steals, which is vital to someone of his mold. He’s another guy who I see as having a 30 point floor, and in reality if he gets hot shooting, he’s got 50 point, and tournament winning upside, at this price.
Evan Turner (4700/4800) – The Warriors are huge favorites in the late game tonight, which could bode well for Turner. Depending on how things are going, Turner is the sixth or seventh man, but should see enough run in a junk time situation that he should be able to have a reasonable floor. He’s not my favorite option, but if you have only a little bit of budget left at the position, he’s the guy I would go to.
Kristaps Porzingis (8000/7500) – Kristaps was horrible on Thursday night with Carmelo and Rose out, but both are expected to be back. In a perfect world, Rose sits out and Carmelo plays, and that is when and how I could see Kristaps having his best upside. 40 points does seem like a lot for him to get to, but I think he could do it, or come close to it, in a matchup with the Nuggets tonight.
Nikola Jokic (5900/6800) – Jokic failed to come through once he was put in the starting lineup. In my personal opinion, Mike Malone does not know what he is doing, and it will become more evident as time goes on for those who might doubt that. Jokic should not be starting, as he is a far more potent option when he comes off the bench. With Harris back, more offense has returned to the starting five. Anyway, I think Jokic has enough upside here to be worth a look, but that price on DraftKings is a little scary.
Jon Leuer (4600/4200) – Hey, Jon Leuer is playing really, really well. He’s had over 30 fantasy points in consecutive games, and the team will be taking on an Indiana team that is horrible on the defensive side of the ball. He still needs just over 20 to make value, but the price is the important factor here, as it allows you to fill your lineups elsewhere.
Karl-Anthony Towns (8900/8700) – I really hate the center position tonight, as I just see a bunch of tough matchups and coin flips. I will put Towns as my top center because, even though he hasn’t been very consistent this year, he does have arguably the most upside. The price is tough, especially if you are looking to try to slot in Harden or LBJ, but this game could end up being a shootout, which means Towns could be in for a big night.
Dwight Howard (7600/7000) – Howard for the most part has been very god this year, and gets a Charlotte team tonight that should have no answer for him. Cody Zeller will get bullied around and Howard should be able to eat the boards tonight, giving him a very, very safe floor. If they work the offense through him, he could end up with 50-fantasy point tonight.
Kyle O’Quinn (4900/5300) – O’Quinn is coming off a horrible game that just didn’t go their way Thursday when they played the Warriors, but this is a much better bounce back spot. I think he is a risky cash game play, but I get it, because he could end up exceeding value like no other at the position. This game should be good and close enough that he sees more than minutes in the early teens tonight.