NBA FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Picks – 1/21/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Pricing is FD/DK

POINT GUARD:

Kemba Walker (7900/8000)  – I don’t know if it is going to be any easier for me today than playing Kemba Walker at home against the fastest team, and one, if not the worst, defensive teams, in the league. The upside here is past 50 points, and while there is not guarantee that he’ll get there, you’d have to think things look pretty good for him to make it past 40 tonight. If that is his floor, he’s almost a lock at this price. I cannot imagine what they will do to try to stop him, but it won’t be enough.

Derrick Rose (6600/6400) – I really hate what’s going on in New York right now with the rotation, because it doesn’t seem like anyone is really trustworthy to use in cash games. In tournaments though, I love the matchup for Rose, and I think he should be able to come through around the mid-30 mark, and we know that if he gets rolling that he has upside for much more. I am not going to blame you if you jump for the matchup and go for him in cash, but I just don’t like what I see right now.

Raymond Felton (4600/5700) – I have no idea why Felton’s price dropped like this, but this is an easy plug and play for me tonight. He should have no problem crossing 25 points against the Nuggets, and quite honestly, I could see him going as high as into the 40’s. This is going to be one of my favorite games to stack tonight, because I think you can know exactly where to go in terms of which players to grab.

SHOOTING GUARD:

Devin Booker (6500/6700) – Booker has been on quite the roll as of late, but is still best reserved for tournaments, as he ends up being far too reliant on his shot falling in order to hit value, with the exception of last game where he had more than normal rebound and assist totals. The price is challenging for someone who could need 30 actual points to hope to hit value, but if his shot is landing and he’s doing those other things, he can be a real threat in tournaments.

Will Barton (5700/6500) – At his price on FanDuel, and in the matchup he’s in against the Clippers, it’s really tough to not just lock Will Barton in tonight. He should be able to soar past 30 and he is a real threat to manage to hit the 40 point mark. He will be very highly owned, even on a relatively large slate. He’s truthfully pretty close to my top play of the night when you consider price and opportunity.

Tony Allen (4600/4400) – Allen most likely won’t end up with high ownership, but you never really know. The price here is really good, and in a game like this, Harden is almost guaranteed to turn the ball over 5 times. I would expect Allen to notch a few steals here, and I think he will be busy around the rim, and he’s got a really strong shot at crossing the 30 point mark, which he has once already against the Rockets this year.

SMALL FORWARD:

Jimmy Butler (9800/9100) – As I am writing this, the Bulls are down 25 points with nine minutes left in the second quarter. That is not a misprint. Needless to say, I expect Butler to be well rested as he gets ready for Chicago to host Sacramento tonight. With no Rudy Gay, there is less resistance against him, an he very well could end up as one of the highest scoring players of the day.

Kawhi Leonard (9600/9200) – Kawhi Leonard isn’t exactly in an easy matchup tonight against the Cavs and LeBron James, but he has been rolling lately, and I think he’s just the type of player that gives LeBron problems. He’s had some pretty good games against him in the past, and while I’m not touching him in cash games at this price, I think there is a good chance I’ll be using him a lot in tournaments.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (4600/4000) – Hollis-Jefferson has been making a case for more minutes, as has Caris LeVert. I think I still prefer RHJ, as I think his overall game is a little bit more defined and has more depth to it than LeVert. The price is excellent, but I am concerned about the minutes he is going to see. They seem to vary, as well as not being very high to begin with. Still, he manages to put together some pretty nice games in the time he is given, and the matchup is nice for him as well.

POWER FORWARD:

Nikola Jokic (9900/9300) – Who would have thought two months ago when Jokic was struggling, moved to the bench and sub $5k that he would be sitting on the doorstep of $10k right before the All-Star break? It’s tough to argue about paying this price with how he’s been playing, and he’s been totally and completely matchup proof. He’s going in a ton, if not most, of my lineups tonight, and I have a feeling that I will not be the only one doing that.

Paul Millsap (8200/7700) – If you don’t want to pay the price for Jokic, Millsap is in a really good position tonight against the Sixers. He should be able to call his shot here, and I wouldn’t doubt seeing him coast over 40 with little effort. There is certainly the ability for him to cross the 50 point mark, but I would give Jokic a much higher odd of doing that. I think pairing them is a nice route to go in tournaments.

David Lee (4900/4800) – Pau Gasol is out for the foreseeable future with a hand issue, so it looks like we’ll be seeing a ton of David Lee. He’s more athletic than LaMarcus Aldridge, and he is likely going to be a pain to Aldridge owner in season long leagues because of the motor he plays with. The matchup isn’t great for him against the Cavs, but with his floor being so high and his price being so low, it just makes sense tonight.

CENTER:

DeAndre Jordan (9100/7800) – DeAndre Jordan is unquestionably my top play of the day until he hits $10k, which could happen sooner rather than later. He and Felton are an easy pairing for me tonight, as Felton has good chemistry with him. The likelihood I see here is another 50 point outing, which is absolutely awesome at the price he’s at. Jokic is mostly an offensive player, and isn’t that threatening on the defensive end, so I think Jordan should have a field day with him.

Dwight Howard (7000/7300) – I don’t think that Howard has near the upside of Jordan tonight, but I do think he has a pretty safe floor. The Sixers aren’t good at defense, and I think Howard is certainly someone that will give Embiid some problems. The upside here is over 40 points, but I do think the floor is safe enough that we can consider using him in cash games.

Tyson Chandler (5700/5200) – Last up tonight is Tyson Chandler, who has been playing really well this year. New York isn’t exactly threatening right now, and I am convinced that Chandler will be able to grab more boards than usual in this one. He should be able to fall around 30 points, and his upside is over 40, so I think he’s someone that we can safely consider in any format tonight.

Thanks for reading! Don’t ever hesitate to reach out in the comments, follow us on Twitter @researchandwin or email us at host@researchfantasy.com!