NBA FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Picks – 1/17/17
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!
Pricing is FD/DK
Kyle Lowry (9000/8600) – It feels like it has been so long since we’ve actually had a full NBA DFS slate, and tonight won’t give us one either, despite the fact that this is a pretty nice little slate. I like the way things set up for Lowry, or specifically how he plays, since he typically starts all the quarters, so if the game is headed to a blow out again, he should still see pretty close to his normal time. Nothing more here to say really, other than this is a great matchup.
Patrick Beverley (5300/5500) – Beverley had a few down games, but really game back in a big way against the Nets, to absolutely no ones surprise. The matchup gets a little more difficult as the Rockets take on the Heat. It’s still nothing that we are going to run away from, and I think at this price, it makes a lot of sense to throw him in your cash game lineups and spend at other positions tonight.
Emmanuel Mudiay (4500/4900) – Mudiay is a very frustrating option to put in your lineup each and every night he plays, but one would think there is a little more safety in things tonight as the Nuggets will be taking on the Lakers. He should be able to eclipse the 20 point mark tonight, and does have a pretty good upside at this price as well. I’m probably going to use him in my cash games, but really hope I don’t regret it.
James Harden (12300/12200) – One of the positions I could certainly make a case for using your budget at tonight would be at the shooting guard position. Harden is easily the most consistent player on the board tonight, so I think it makes a great deal of sense to start building your lineups with him. The price is up there, but he has been so consistent that is basically just doesn’t make sense to avoid him.
DeMar DeRozan (9400/8500) – DeRozan’s price keeps bouncing around, at least on FanDuel, and now he is priced back up over $9k, after two games that landed him in the mid-30’s. Alrighty, then. You do have to worry about a blowout here, but I think it should stay close enough that DeRozan should be able to come through with an outing that will make you happy you paid up for him.
Will Barton (4800/5600) – This is a tricky situation and I am not sure which way I am going to go with things. The Nuggets are truly an interesting team, as Gary Harris being out really doesn’t directly push any one player up to a must play situation. I think Barton and Jameer Nelson would probably be the two places I’d look first, and I think that Jokic should see slightly more ball handling. I think I’ll probably take the approach of using several of them in my tournament lineups.
Kawhi Leonard (8800/8800) – It’s really tough at the top to decided between Butler and Leonard, but I think I’d rather save the money and drop down to Leonard, who is in a bit of a better matchup. I think Kawhi could definitely build on his last outing, which saw him set his career high in scoring. I don’t think you have to build your team around him or anything, but he is a great place to start.
Wilson Chandler (5800/6700) – Chandler has been very solid lately, and I would imagine that we should see things continue tonight. His price does make you feel a little uncomfortable, considering that he is a guy coming off the bench. I think the team will need his scoring tonight as they take on the Lakers, and at his price, at least on FanDuel, I think he makes a good amount of sense to use.
DeMarre Carroll (4600/5200) – DeMarre Carroll has put up nice outings in four out of his last five games, granted all against poor opposition. The good news here is that the Nets are as bad as they come, so he should have a field day again. He’s going to be a popular option on a short slate in cash games, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the same thing happen in tournaments as well.
Nikola Jokic (8500/8100) – For me, it’s a pretty easy call tonight that Jokic is my player of the day. I am somewhat scared about when the other shoe is going to drop, but with how good he has been playing as of late, it’s tough to look the other direction. He’s a good bet to be able to get over the 40 point mark, and anything above and around 50 is likely as well. I would expect his ownership to exceed 60% tonight.
Julius Randle (6200/7200) – Randle has a few down performances in a row, but now gets a better matchup against the Nuggets. Let me rephrase that: the Nuggets have actually been pretty good at defending the position, but that is when Randle typically shines. OK, glad we’ve cleared that up. I would hope that he would not have an issue crossing the 30 point mark tonight, which is about what he needs to make 5x value.
Kenneth Faried (4300/4400) – I think one of my favorite tournament plays tonight will be Kenneth Faried. This just screams to me to be one of those matchups that he should be absolutely able to dominate. His price is way too low, and if he manages to get the minutes, he should be able to produce. He’s too volatile for cash games thought.
Karl-Anthony Towns (9400/9300) – I really thought Towns would be able to take advantage of Dallas and them not having anyone to matchup with him, but shockingly he just couldn’t get it done. His price dropped as a result, and now he gets to take on a San Antonio team that has given up some nice games to centers this year. Much like Faried, Towns is not a play in cash games, but it makes a ton of sense in tournaments.
Jonas Valancunias (6000/6200) – If you want to go a little bit cheaper to try to save at a position where I think you definitely can, I would look at Big Val. Make no mistake about it, Dwayne Casey will not make this easy on you. He will absolutely go out of his way to make sure that doesn’t get enough time on the floor to do serious damage. Val is going to have to get it done and get it done quick to really make an impact tonight, but he makes a ton of sense. I know everything I wrote makes you believe otherwise, but he should be able to close in around 30 tonight.
Robin Lopez (4400/4200) – Lopez has continued to put up some strong outings, and for the same reason I wanted to go to Towns the other night, I will go to Lopez. He’s a grizzled vet who perhaps won’t have some of the difficulties of Towns, but ultimately, has a much lower amount of points to achieve. I think I’d rather spend down here and look to spend up at other positions.