NBA DFS Picks – 11/18/16
Pricing is FD/DK
Stephen Curry (9400/9100) – Point guard is definitely top loaded tonight, which is exciting to me, because I think we could see ownership percentages spread out a bit more. After a slow start to the season, Curry has looked to be in MVP form over the last several games. This price is fair for what he is capable of , and I think that this could be a game where he could break the 50-point mark on FanDuel. I expect him to on DraftKings due to the 3-point bonus.
Kemba Walker (8500/8200) – Kemba is easily playing the best basketball of his career right now, and with little doubt I will use him in my lineups tonight. Dennis Shroeder isn’t a defensive monster by any means, and I think that Kemba should be able to create space and call his own number whenever he wants. It doesn’t hurt that this game is on his home court, where he has been markedly better over the course of his career.
Ish Smith (5400/5500) – Kyrie Irving isn’t one that is known for his defense, and Ish is someone that really likes to move with the ball, which has resulted in some pretty good performances thus far this year. His price is reasonable in this game, as I think he should get enough shots up and facilitate enough that he will be able to put up a good enough score to make you feel glad you put him in your lineup.
DeMar DeRozan (9200/8600) – Honestly, DeRozan might be the best guy going in the NBA right now. I surely did not see this coming, and I know we’ve been saying it for like two weeks, but it’s going to stop at some point. I don’t think it will be in this game against Denver though, so I think you should feel free to use him. I obviously like the price far more on DraftKings than FanDuel, but I’d play him on either site.
J.J. Redick (4500/4500) – I’m a big fan of playing guys while they are getting hot, and that is exactly how Redick looks right now. It doesn’t hurt that the Clippers will be playing the Kings, who are just awful against opposing shooting guards. I love the price on both sites, and I’ve got my fingers crossed that the Kings are able to stay in this game so Redick ends up with a full allotment of minutes.
Seth Curry (4100/5200) – It was announced today that J.J. Barea will be out for around 6 weeks. On top of that, Deron Williams is currently questionable, and the Mavs actually signed another guard, so you have to assume that he’s probably on the wrong side of that questionable tag. There is definitely a big enough difference in price between FanDuel and DraftKings, and the opposition isn’t exactly the best with the Grizzlies playing slow, unexciting basketball. Still, he should get all the minutes he can handle and makes for a very nice play tonight.
Kawhi Leonard (8500/8800) – You will almost never go wrong taking a guy from the top like LeBron or Durant, but for tonight, at this price, I’ll gladly go with Kawhi against the Lakers. It’s really funny, because last year, we would have said something like “he’s a good play but this is a blowout spot for the Spurs”. I don’t think so this year. I think the Lakers will stay in this game and Kawhi should have plenty of chances to score tonight.
Rudy Gay (7300/6800) – I basically never like Rudy Gay, because he burns me ever time I take him. Thus far this year, though, he has been pretty good, and if the Kings are going to stay in this game, Rudy Gay is going to have to do a lot. I could see him having another big game, because the Clippers do struggling with wings, and he’s a discount on DraftKings.
Bojan Bogdanovic (4300/4700) – I like to throw one cheaper option out there, so I’ll toss out Bojan tonight in what should be a fun, high scoring game against OKC. You’d think that Bojan would be putting up better numbers than this right now, but it is what it is. He’s got a upside, for sure, so you could end up getting a game of 30-points or more, which is why he is on this list tonight. He makes a nice value play.
Blake Griffin (8800/8300) – Anthony Davis looks to be questionable still for his game tonight, so if I am spending up, I will have to do it with Blake Griffin, who ends up in a favorable position against the Kings. He has been very good this year, and I could definitely see this team putting up some points in this game. The price is especially nice on DraftKings, as this is another game where we could see a potential triple-double from him.
Kenneth Faried (6300/5900) – Faried has been an absolute monster since entering the starting lineup, and this is someone who we should ride while they are hot. His price on DraftKings is especially attractive, as I could see Denver struggling somewhat with a talented Toronto team. I still think Faried is likely to notch another double-double in this game, and he has a ton of upside as well at his price.
Terrence Jones (5000/6200) – If Anthony Davis is out, Terrence Jones is a guy that becomes a plug and play, at least on FanDuel. DraftKings was extremely reactionary to Jones’ most recent play, and this saw his price rise more than I really want to consider playing, as it does eliminate some of the upside. Portland could very well be on tired legs after playing a fast paced game with Houston last night.
Pau Gasol (6200/6000) – If you are looking for 40-50 points with little room for upside, than by all means, DeMarcus Cousins is your guy. I am not even saying that in a manner to discourage you from doing it. My thing is that I find I do best when I put guys in my lineups that have some room for upside. That is where Pau Gasol falls tonight. He is prices to where he needs 30-31 points to make value in a matchup where he has 38-43 point upside. At that point, we are talking about 6.5-7x value, which is exactly what I want in both cash games and tournaments.
Myles Turner (6100/6000) – I know a lot of people, myself included, were very excited to see Myles Turner this year. Outside of the monster first game, he has been relatively disappointing. He’s come through in 2 of his last 3 games, so I am willing to give him a chance in what should be a favorable matchup against the Phoenix Suns. I think we could see him in a position where he could come close to 40-points, and he makes for an excellent tournament play at this price.
Lucas Noguiera (4100/3900) – For a three game span, Noguiera was an excellent value play. Then, two poor matchups against the Cavs and the Warriors slowed his roll. This is a great buy low situation in tournaments, as many will have forgotten about his hot play. Additionally, his price has fallen some, so he no longer needs to do as much to reach value. I think he could eclipse that 20 point mark, and against a team like Denver who will charge the rim and aren’t always safe with the ball.