NBA FanDuel & DraftKings DFS Picks – 1/11/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Pricing is FD/DK

POINT GUARD:

Damian Lillard (9000/8500) – I think the first place I want to start at the position is Damian Lillard. Even though he is on a back to back and playing the Cavs, he is at home, and they as well are on a back to back. Kyrie isn’t going to be able to handle him, and I could see him having an absolutely monster game against them tonight. Yes, he’s got a huge price tag, but I think he should be able to put together a good enough game to make him well worth the price.

Patrick Beverly (6000/5600) – I do like to pick on Ricky Rubio and the Wolves at this position, and Beverly is a great player to target for cash games because he does so much on the court that allows him to put together some big fantasy outings. I think he should be able to get the job done tonight, and carries a nice price tag. He is capable of putting up 40 point games even with James Harden on the court.

Brandon Jennings (4900/4900) – I am likely wrong, but I cannot imagine that the team will just do nothing about Derrick Rose just skipping out on them. Yeah, I know, he had to pay a fine, but I cannot help but imagine that there will be more to the story. Jennings has played well enough in his absence, and even along side him, though, that I cannot imagine him not getting extended run. I don’t think I’m looking this route in cash games, unless Rose is out, but he’s in play in tournaments.

SHOOTING GUARD:

James Harden (12400/12000) – I love this game tonight, and I can guarantee I will doing some game stacks, especially on DraftKings where you get a little more positional flexibility. Harden is just a man amongst boys right now, and I think he should be able to keep his strong play going tonight. The price is increasing, but you can’t really complain when he is able to continue to put up those big numbers.

Courtney Lee (4200/4000) – It is very unexciting at all points in time to put Courtney Lee in your roster, but honestly, the position is awful, and unless some value opens up [like value where the guys is likely to go over 5x], then Lee looks like a great play. I think he’s someone I will certainly have in a lot of my cash games because I just don’t think he’ll ruin things for you, but he’s also very unlikely to be able to be the reason you win a tournament.

Jamal Crawford (4000/4100) – Crawford had a horrible game the last time the Clippers played, and it caused his price to fall just a bit. That is music to my ears, because I do not believe for a second that things will continue like that. With Blake Griffin still out, Crawford’s scoring is necessary for this team to stay in games, and I think there is a really good chance that he will be able to cross that 20 point mark tonight.

SMALL FORWARD:

LeBron James (10100/9700) – LeBron is always in play, because he just has a really safe floor. He’s got a nice ceiling, too, but if one player on this slate was to hit 70 fantasy points, LeBron wouldn’t be the first name you mention. Still, at under $10k on DraftKings, he’s someone that I wouldn’t really hesitate to use in my lineups tonight, as I think there is a very good chance he’ll have a big game against the Blazers.

Jae Crowder (5000/5200) – Crowders play has been all kinds of awful as of late. He used to be a guy we didn’t even bat an eye at, and just slotted him into our cash game lineups and moved on. As of late, though, he’s been working up some real stinkers. The Wizards aren’t great at defending the position, and I think some players at this point could be sick of the inconsistency, so his ownership could dip quite a bit. I’ll roll him out in some tournament lineups tonight, but isn’t going to make my cash games.

Shabazz Muhammad (3500/3800) – So what happens if Zach LaVine doesn’t play? This really is a good question. One would think that Kris Dunn would see more run, and Tyus Jones FINALLY saw some time on the floor as well. But could the Wolves decide to shift Wiggins up to the two and use Muhammad a bit more? I’m hoping so, because we’ve known him to have some decent fantasy production in the past. It’s tough to say if we’ll know early in the day, but I’m crossing my fingers he’ll see an expanded role.

POWER FORWARD:

Kevin Love (8100/8100) – I am sitting here just trying to imagine Al-Farouq Aminu trying to body up on Kevin Love and I’m just laughing. I actually think there is a good chance I will shift most of my tournament play from this game to Love, as I could see him just absolutely eating this front court alive. The price has come down a little bit, but nothing excessive, but I am pretty sure we could see a fifty burger here.

Kristaps Porzingis (7900/7500) – The whole Knicks team was just awful last time out, and I’d have to imagine things will change tonight, or at least we should hope. I don’t see Ilyasova giving him too much trouble, and I think he’s primed for a nice game after struggling the last time out. The sky is the limit here, but I think for a few hundred dollars more, I would probably rather have Love in all formats.

Ersan Ilyasova (5900/6100) – So even though I don’t think Ilyasova is going to be able to stop Porzingis, I still think he is going to be able to put together a solid enough game. At this price, he’s been doing pretty good, and I think he’s a pretty logical cash game play. I think he should finish out somewhere between 25-35 points, making him the ideal target for the cash format.

CENTER:

Karl-Anthony Towns (9500/9500) – There is no way I can see Towns being stopped tonight. In fact, when he gets going, it’s lights out for everyone else on the team. If LaVine were to sit, you would think his upside jumps considerably, as LaVine is a pretty high usage guy in this offense. I think this is a high upside situation for him, and I think he’s got a good enough floor to be used in cash games as well.

Joel Embiid (7500/8000) – At almost $2k cheaper on FanDuel, I can see most moving toward Embiid, and I understand. I think Embiid has a good shot at hovering around the 40 point mark, but it is difficult to see exactly how he will be able to do much more than that with his minutes limit. I think I’d probably prefer him in cash to tournaments, as I don’t want to use a guy who can’t play over a certain amount of minute.s

Montrezl Harrell (4800/5300) – Perhaps the guy that will be used most in this slate will be Harrell, who has been pretty electric since Clint Capela went down. For no apparent reason, FanDuel decided to cut his salary for this game, which I think will force a lot of people’s hands into using him tonight. I don’t blame them, as he could end up with close to 10x value if things fall right. If you want to spend up elsewhere, here is how to do it.

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