NBA Daily Fantasy Breakdown – 3/12/16
Welcome back to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. Tonight we are looking at a 9 game slate, which is pretty good for a Saturday night.
Six of the nine games tonight project totals over 210. Those are, in ascending order: OKC/SA, NO/MIL, WAS/DEN, HOU/CHA, ORL/POR and PHO/GS which projects at almost 230. This game is a particularly interesting one to break down, as Vegas expects the score to be roughly 118-100 in the Warrior’s favor. While that may be the case, it could very well be a 25 point gap in the third quarter and both sets of starters could sit. This list also does not include the Memphis game, which they are a major underdog in against Atlanta. Memphis only has 8 active for the game tonight, aside from Alex Stephenson who they signed and COULD play, but there are no indications he will. If I was going to guess, I would say that Matt Barnes and Tony Allen are the riskiest of the bunch. If this game turns into a blow out, I would imagine that they would be the first taken out. I would assume the next out of those would be either Green or Stephenson. Even though I have green listed here, I would like to point out Jarrell Martin could end up being a fine punt option, considering the likelihood of a blowout, combined with how poor is at rebounding and defending bigs.
On to the action!
John Wall- I will admit having a bit of a tough time trying to come up with which stud point guard I would want to put in my lineup. I am probably not going to play Steph and Westy in my cash games due to another potential blowout in the first and the Spurs in the later. I think that Lillard, Holiday and Kemba are all fine options on this slate, but I like Wall’s upside the most here. Denver has done a horrible job defending, well, just defending all year [or three], and Wall is a guy that would project to eat them alive. Mudiay has improved his offensive game throughout the year, but he is still turnover prone, and Wall is prone to snatching the ball. He is a great, possibly overlooked, option to start your teams with tonight.
Emmanuel Mudiay- I know I just kind of broke Mudiay apart above, but I think he still has a ton of upside on his home court in a fast paced situation. He is going through a five game streak of just being awesome, and they are giving him a ton of run. Washington has their struggles on the defensive side of things as well, which leads me to believe that this should be a fast paced, high scoring contest that I want to have exposure to.
CJ Watson/Toney Douglas- Both Elfrid Payton and Norris Cole are currently both on the wrong side of questionable, and if they are out, this opens up two terrific value plays under the 4k mark. Both guys exceeded the 20 point mark in their last matchup, and are in position to tonight as well. I think either guy makes a fine choice for the price.
James Harden- Harden predictably struggled against a very sound Boston frontcourt last night, and I fully expect him to take his frustrations out on Jeremy Lin tonight No combination of Kemba, Lin or Batum is going to slow Harden down, and I expect a big bounce back performance tonight.
Khris Middleton- For me, this is all about the competition: a tired, shorthanded Pelicans team. Here is the beauty of things: The Bucks can’t slow the competition down to save their lives, so this game should stay close! All three of the Milwaukee Three are in play tonight, and I love Middleton to have a big game.
Lance Stephenson – Stephenson is just a fun guy to watch, and it looked like he regained some of the spark he had in Indiana last night against the Pels. I very much see him in play tonight at his price. He is going to be looked upon to provide offense off the bench, and I think he is going to capitalize off his momentum from last night.
Giannis Antetekounmpo- If I would have told you at the beginning of the year that the Greek Freak would be approach 10k on some sites, you would have laughed at me. 7.5k? Sure. 8k? That’s a stretch. Well, when most of your team gets injured and most of the rest of them would barely fill out a college team, then you start having to do things yourself. And when you start doing things yourself, you end up coming close to 70 point performances. Tonight is one of those nights he profiles to do just that.
Nicolas Batum- Fantasy sites just cannot seem to agree on what Nic Batum is, constantly swapping him between the 2 and the 3. One thing we can agree on is that he is in a great position and at a great price tonight against the Rockets. Both teams are coming off games last night, but I don’t think that will slow either one down.
Hollis Thompson- As I tweeted out earlier, Thompson, Landry and Noel are the only “bigs” left on the roster. I guess you can count Elton Brand too, but he’s not going to play more than low teens. While the matchup is not great, the opportunity is surely there. Thompson should see minutes in the mid thirties and does not have to do much to make value.
LaMarcus Aldride- Aldridge has been a different ball players lately and that means good things for San Antonio. His price has come up a ways, but ultimately, he is contributing and they will need him tonight to knock off this Thunder team.
JaMychal Green- Green got off to a very slow start last night, but ended up picking it up. He has exceeded value in each game since coming into the starting lineup, and will start again tonight due to injuries to Zach Randolph. Atlanta has not defended bigs well this year, and with Green playing like a man possessed, he could be in for a big night.
Carl Landry- The vet has found himself in a position that he probably didn’t think he would be in when he signed with the Sixers – in the starting lineup. Things happen in basketball, and tonight, he is taxed with picking up some minutes. Thompson and Landry need 37 fantasy points combined to make value, and I think they are capable of doing that tonight with no other bodies available.
Hassan Whiteside- Center isn’t my favorite position tonight, but I will still run with Whiteside. Toronto is not exactly the team I want to play against in daily fantasy, but I think you have to look past that with Whiteside. He has been great coming off the bench, and should be in good position tonight to make value.
Andre Drummond- Drummond could very well destroy this time in just a few minutes. I have been saying for awhile that I have been waiting for that big Drummond game to happen and it just hasn’t. Well, I think tonight is going to mirror Monday night’s Cavs/Grizzlies game, and I think an undermanned Philly team is going to play strong at home, and Drummond will have to go hard for 4 quarters.
Nikola Jokic- Man, I am getting really sick of Denver’s rotations and fast. Jokic LOOKS to be a good play, but it is REALLY easy to get burned playing big men in Denver. He is probably the one who can exceed value by the largest spread tonight, but he is also the most likely to crash and burn. I think Gortat and Wall could certainly get him in foul trouble, and he has a big problem with that right now.
Good luck tonight!