NASCAR Preview – 2017 AAA Drive For Autism at Dover International Speedway
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NASCAR Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!
The Coca-Cola 600 certainly was an exciting race for what is typically one of the least exciting races of the year. The addition of an extra stage really added to the excitement and ultimately dictated who won the race. Congratulations to Austin Dillon for not only getting his first Cup victory, but also winning at one of the biggest stages in NASCAR. That sets the table nicely for this week as we go to the Dover International Speedway for the AAA 400 Drive for Autism.
The track at the Dover International Speedway is at 1 mile oval track made of concrete. The straightaways are 9 degrees banked and the turns are 24 degrees banked. The width of the straightaways are 48 feet, while the turns sit at 58 feet. The length of the straightaways are 1076 feet, making this a fun track for all of those who are participating in this race. There are only 39 drivers entered into this race, meaning that all of them will start so we don’t have to worry about a driver potentially being ousted during qualifying.
I want to take a look at five drivers who we could possibly use this week. It’s too soon to know for sure how each of these drivers will actually play out in terms of the race, because without practice and qualifying, all we have is past data to rely on. I will be doing another article after qualifying, most likely on Saturday morning, that illustrates who my favorite picks for this late are. For now though, we’ll focus on five drivers that I am looking at this weekend.
Jimmie Johnson – It’s no shock that Johnson is the highest priced driver on the slate this weekend. He has a ridiculous history at this track, winning 10 out of 30 times he’s appeared here. The last four races saw him win one time, but outside of that he has not necessarily finished all that well. He is undoubtedly going to be one of the highest owned drivers, especially considering he just does not qualify well for just about any race. He’s always a good bet for place differential points and as his history here shows, he can win easily. He’s a great start for your cash games, but it could be smart to pivot off of him in tournaments depending on where he starts.
Martin Truex Jr. – After dominating at Charlotte for a second year in a row, but being unable to win this time, Truex sees his price fall almost $1,000 on DraftKings. That’s insane. It’s not like he hasn’t had some success at this track, winning twice in 22 attempts, including once last year. He’s finished in the top 20 in 4 out of the 4 last races here and led 365 total laps. He’s usually has one of the fastest cars on the track, and especially if he is near the top he’s a big-time laps led and fastest laps play. I would expect for him to be extremely popular as well, as this price does not represent his skill set.
Clint Bowyer – Bowyer’s another guy that I like here this week. He hasn’t been overly impressive at this track, but he does have two top fives in 22 attempts and 19 of 22 races he’s finished in the top 20. He’s gaining almost six spots per race, which is important. His price is extremely affordable at 8800 on DraftKings and I think he make sense in either cash games or tournaments. I would expect him to be a fairly popular play at this price point with some success on this track, but he’s still someone that I’m interested in this week.
Kasey Kahne – Kasey Kahne will probably be my favorite value play this week, as long as he qualifies below 15th. He has 4 out of 4 top 20’s, including three top tens and two top fives in his last four races at Dover. He’s gained an average of 11 positions during that time, and even though he has not seen a ton of success lately, I could still see him putting up a nice number on DraftKings this weekend. Again, people will certainly weigh his history heavily at this track, especially if he qualifies in the twenties, which will make him a chalky play, but it could end up being a situation where you’ll need to have him in order to win the big bucks.
Danica Patrick – I cannot believe I’m going here this weekend, as I don’t think I’ve had any ownership of her all year, but if Danica Patrick qualifies low. I will have an absurd ownership position on her. She’s had a ton of bad luck thus far this year and I really do believe that it will turn around eventually. She’s shown speed and the ability to move up in traffic in some races and has generally done fairly well on 1 mile intermediate tracks. The price on her is very low and she gives you the ability to lock in the more expensive drivers, especially assuming they qualify high. We are not expecting her to win the race, but if she ends up starting between 25th and 30th, she can see as many as 10 spots in place differential, which is a very big number.
Hope you enjoyed! Look for our actual picks Saturday.