NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings – 2017 I LOVE NEW YORK 355
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NASCAR Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!
The regular season of NASCAR is winding down, and the circuit continues this week at Watkins Glen. The last several races of the season are always fun, because they go to a bunch of different track types which really makes the drivers stay on their toes. The road courses are representative of only two races this year, and are by far the least representative of track types on tour.
Watkins Glen might be a 355 mile race, but the reality of the situation is that it will only encompass 90 laps. That is simply not enough to warrant playing drivers based off of the potential for laps led. Realistically, the highest amount of laps led should be around 30, which does not translate to more than 7.5 fantasy points – not exactly the amount of points that we really want to put much stock into. The race could see a few different drivers with around 20 laps led, which reduces any upside there.
There will be upside for place differential points, though. Over the last 5 years, on average, 22 spots saw a positive place differential. Not all of them are sizable, but it still shows that we will see some cars in the 20’s and 30’s moving up in the race. All of this comes down to qualifying though. We need to see where drivers end up. Hopefully, we get lucky and some of the drivers qualify poorly or not at all.
An interesting state here is actually from the pole position. In the past five years working from 2012 forward, the finishes for the pole sitter have been: 33/31/34/24/15. That is very, very bad. There is no guarantee that it will continue to work that poorly, but it certainly gives me pause. Granted, some of the pole sitters in those races were not top tier names, but a few were.
I will update this after practice.
Kyle Busch (10500) – It should come to no one’s surprise that Busch makes it on this list. Yes, Truex and Larson have been better this year, but that is only because so much has worked against Busch. Now that he has this win under his belt, I fully expect to see him rip off a few more. He has done it here before and I think he could do it again this week.
Joey Logano (8700) – It has been a frustrating season for Logano, and I am hesitant to put him here because, much like Dale Jr., every time it looks like things are turning around, he crashes down to earth. He has a ton of success at this track, and if things go his way this week, he could find himself a top the leaderboard and in the playoffs.
Danica Patrick (5600) – Danica has been in extremely good form as of late, and I believe she now has 5 straight top 15 finishes. She has done decent at this track before, but I am far more concerned in how she has been driving as of late. I am hoping that she shows speed in practice and qualifies poorly so that she is a good source of place differential. Either way, unless she qualifies in the top 10, I will have ownership on her this week.
Michael McDowell (7000) – McDowell is another driver who has great track history, at least within the last two years here. That has caused his price to jump pretty considerably here. The problem is that he is a driver who will go out at a track like this and qualify 12th, ripping any huge upside from us. We will have to see how things land in qualifying.
Danica qualifying at 25th makes her a lock for me. Remember, this is not a full field. She has top 15 potential again this week. Kevin Harvick starts 20th, making him another lock this week. He will be very popular, as well. Kyle Busch gets the pole position and a big no thank you from me. He might have won yesterday, but made a ton of mistakes in pitting and even spun out, and that was with a much lighter field. Keselowski, Logano, Bowyer and Hamlin are one of my favorite cores this weekend. Yes, Hamlin and Bowyer will start from the back, but they have very fast cars, and I have full confidence they can get into the mix early enough to vie for better positioning. They all turn highly in our projections. So does Cole Whitt, if you are looking for a flier. Matt DiBendetto could be the biggest trap play this week. He is starting last but only has an average finish of 30 here, so I just do not see a ton of upside. I do not know where to head with Dale Jr. He qualifies super late, but that car has been trash this weekend. He has some upside but his ownership could trump that. Kyle Larson might have qualified high, but I am not big on his finishing point, so this could be a week without Larson for me. That is about it for now. Feel free to hit me up with any specific questions on Twitter.