NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings – 2017 Bojangles’ Southern 500
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NASCAR Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!
Welcome back and thanks for reading another edition of our NASCAR DFS Breakdowns.
This weekend, we will be in Darlington at an intermediate track as the race to the playoff ticks down with just a few races left to qualify. This could result in some drivers being willing to take some extra chances, but for the most part, I am not going to go overboard on narratives and things of that nature.
There are 367 laps being run at this race, and the pole sitter has led over 158 on average over the last five years, with the pole sitter actually leading over 200 in the last three years. This makes the pole sitter at this race an attractive option. The pole sitter actually has the highest finish at this race, with it being 6.2. Over the last three years, the pole sitter has finished 2, 2 and 1. That is even more going in favor of the pole sitter.
Otherwise in this race, I am looking for guys who can finish near the top/lead laps and place differentials that can finish between 12th and 15th. I know that sounds very specific, but you typically are not going to get a lot of value from guys finishing at 30 no matter how cheap they are because the points you get for finishing 30th do not amount to much.
Kevin Harvick (9700) – Did you think I was going through all that pole sitter talk without making the pole sitter my top pick? It does not hurt that Harvick has managed to have very good success here as well. He is the fifth highest priced driver on the slate, which also feels like you are getting a major discount. He has been the fastest car out there all weekend, and while anything can happen in NASCAR, Harvick sure does look like the man to beat this week.
Denny Hamlin (9900) – Hamlin comes in as the fourth most expensive driver on the slate, but his success at this track has been awesome. He will be starting ninth, and I think he can win the race. At the very least, he should be able to finish above where he is starting, which gives him nothing but upside this weekend. HOWEVER, it is important to note that if Harvick does not lead every lap (he is very, very unlikely to), that means someone else will – and history says it won’t be someone starting this far back. The top three positions (Harvick/Truex/Busch) are all most likely to do that. That will not pull me off Hamilton though.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (7600) – I really debated here if I wanted to go with Junior or not, BUT I am kind of feeling like the week off and the realization that things are coming to an end for him might give him that extra push, just that little extra, to make him viable. You cannot use track history with Dale because he has been a dumpster fire this year. I have to believe that medically he is not right, knows it, but does not want to quit in the middle of a campaign. Anyway, he has solid upside starting 22nd.
Chris Buescher (6600) – I feel like Buescher is a solid value pick more often than he is not, and this week is no different. In his only trip here, he finished 17th – 12 places higher than where he is starting this week. He is always in the conversation to finish in the top 15, and if he does this week, he will return tremendous value.