NASCAR DFS Picks for DraftKings – 2017 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NASCAR Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!
The tail end of the NASCAR regular season will bring us to Bristol Motor Speedway yet again. This is a challenging one mile track which is a .533 oval track, with banking in corners of between 24-48 degrees and in the straightaways between 6-10 degrees. It is a concrete track. The straightaways are but 650 feet and the track is 40 feet wide.
This can be a track where accidents happen. In the summer race last year, there were a number of smaller accidents and one big accident that took out or damaged much of the field. As you can imagine, which many of the cars in close proximity to one another, a spin out in the middle of a group can dramatically affect the results of the race. That is not to say that you should focus your strategy into thinking about it when making picks because anyone can get into an accident. It just something to consider when you are watching your lineups on Saturday.
There are several elements to strategy. The first is current form. The perfect example of this is Joey Logano. He has been AWFUL as of late. Well, basically awful since the encumbered win. His practice times have been poor, and he could qualify low, which could put people on to him. Normally, I would get behind this but sometimes a driver is just bad. Dale Junior is another case of this. He has been in a good position so often this year but it has not lead to any real success. I would be cautious about investigating either of those options, despite where they start.
This is one of those hybrid courses when it comes to how you view the dominator statistics. It has literally been months since we have been at a track where we can consider using laps led as a very serious statistic for points. 500 laps will translate into 125 points, as well as 250 fastest lap points. This could very well be a situation where there is NOT much of a translation, as on a short track, the leader could face a lot of lap traffic. However, David Ragan will have far less fastest laps than Kyle Busch regardless of where they start from. Lap leaders are drivers you will certainly want to pay attention to this week.
It also never hurts to look at guys or gals who have qualified poorly or not at all. Kyle Larson has a habit of this. While lap leaders could certainly dictate bigger performances this week, I do not think it ever hurts to shoot for someone that has the upside to jump 10+ spots, especially if they are starting around the 20 mark. Let us use this example: If Kyle Larson starts 30th and finishes 20th, he gets 10 place differential points. However, he only gets 24 points for the 20th place finish. Sure, he might get 20 fastest laps, but those 46 total points will not cut it this week. In Michigan, that is a great score. When the winner here is likely to be nearing the 100 point mark, not so much. There is always a big difference between a guy like Larson and Chris Beuscher. The price on Beuscher allows that point total to be viewed differently.
There have been some interesting trends here over the last five years at this specific summer race. The first 15 positions all have negative place differentials, with the first five having double digit place differentials. The last five starting spots all have move up on average 10 spots. I do not think you can really look too deeply into this type of activity, as accidents sway things very seriously, but it is at least worth noting.
This was written prior to qualifying. I will post my favorite drivers once qualifying is over.
Note: Qualifying was really weird. This is going to be a very, very interesting week.
4 Guys I Am Playing:
Kyle Busch (10800) – Oh boy. Kyle Busch is starting 18th. That means we could see a ton of place differential points – or, we see him continue his ways at Bristol and not finish the race. I think it is somewhat ridiculous to assume that he is just always going to wreck here. He showed a ton of speed in practice. Worth noting, I heard a few different guys mention that they thought their cars were really good in race trim but not in qualifying trim. That could explain why the Busch’s and others qualified so poorly. I am willing to eat the ownership on him because he could get all the dominator points this week.
Jimmie Johnson (9300) – Johnson has been awesome here. He has the highest average finish at Bristol over the last 6 races with 5 top tens, including a win earlier this year. The price tag has come down quite a bit, and he is starting in a position where he is a good bet to grab those place differential points. Johnson is always a car that can move up quickly through the race and before you know it, he is leading laps. He could win here again this year, and I love the upside at his price.
Kurt Busch (8400) – The last two visits to Bristol have not been favorable for him, but before that, he was doing well. He is starting 25th, which leaves a lot of room for growth. I know I really have not hit on any lap leader dominators, but I do believe both Kyle and Johnson could be those guys. I would look for a guy like Busch at his price for high end place differential upside. I do not see him being a race leader, but a top ten is in play.
Matt DiBendetto (5800) – In five appearances here over the last six years, DiBendetto has managed four top 21 finishes, including a 6th place finish. With him starting 34th, that gives him a ton of room for upside. It would be very unlikely for him to finish in the top ten again, but a top 20 finish would give him a lot of fantasy points. If he can circle 35-40 fantasy points, he will allow you to stack your lineups with guys who are likely to be in position to lead laps.