MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/31/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Luis Severino (23100/10100/11900) – Severino has the highest ceiling of any of the pitchers on the slate today. He has been relatively dominant this year, and gets a tough test with the Tigers tonight. I do not think this is something that will be too far over his head, and he should be able to put together a nice line tonight.

Sonny Gray (22800/9500/11700) – Sonny Gray has turned the ship, but let’s hope that he does not get traded prior to this contest. He is taking on a Giants team that is not a high strike out team, but is not very good either. I think he is a safe option, or at least as safe as you can get in baseball, but does not carry the upside of Severino.

Alex Cobb (14400/7800/7300) – Cobb is another guy  who has been able to turn his year around and has been posting some very solid outings. There is no doubt that the opponent tonight, the Astros, is less than attractive, but good pitching will always prevail. If he has his stuff going, he could certainly end up being one of the top plays of the night.

INFIELD

Justin Smoak (9600/3900/4900) – Smoak and his teammates get the benefit of taking on James Shields tonight. In case you are unaware, Shields is very bad. Against lefties this year, he is allowing a .440 wOBA, 51.8% fly ball rate, 20.5% HR/FB ratio and 31% hard contact. He is pretty sure to cough up some runs, and Smoak is someone who could benefit from his weaknesses tonight.

Mike Moustakas (8400/3600/4300) – It is incredible that Ubaldo Jiminez has managed to stay in the big leagues this long. He is awful. Just bad. Against lefties this year, he is allowing a .412 wOBA, 37.3% fly ball rate, 30.3% HR/FB ratio and 34.8% hard contact. It is incredible to think his HR/FB rate is so high, so he is someone you will want to target tonight. Moustakas is crushing the ball and makes a logical target.

Jose Abreu (8000/3600/4200) – 2017 is a season I am sure that Marco Estrada likely wants to forget. He has been very, very bad. Against righties, he is giving up a .371 wOBA, 50.8% fly ball rate, 11% HR/FB ratio and 31% hard contact. Abreu has all the talent in the world, and I could see him having a huge game tonight.

OUTFIELD

Michael Brantley (9600/3900/4900) – We know that the Indians are one of the better offenses in all of baseball, and tonight, they get a great matchup against Doug Fister. Even though he has not pitched a lot this year, the results have not been good. Against lefties, he is giving up a .445 wOBA, 44.4% fly ball rate, 18.8 HR/FB ratio and 31.6% hard contact. Brantley can be frustrating, but he also has nice upside.

Steven Souza Jr. (9200/4000/4800) – The Rays will be taking on the Astros and Charlie Morton tonight. He has not been awful all things considered, but this Rays team can play the role of heartbreaker. Morton is allowing a .363 wOBA and 33.3% hard contact on the year. The fly ball rate is not high, but a lot of them go for home runs. Souza can do that, so I want some exposure to him tonight.

Khris Davis (9000/4000/4600) – This seems to be a good spot to use Krush. He is going up against Matt Cain, who is not the best pitcher to begin with. He is giving up a .356 wOBA, 36.5% fly ball rate and 31% hard contact. I think Davis is the most likely player to have a big game in this game.

 

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