MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/25/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Madison Bumgarner (18900/10200/9700) – I really had to think long and hard about putting Bumgarner on this list. To say that 2017 has been a horrible disappointment on just about every level for him has to be has to be sugar coating things. However, I think he is still one of the top pitchers in the game, so I do not want to write him off just like that. The Pirates aren’t a high strikeout team, but I think Bumgarner should be able to pitch around them.

Seth Lugo (15200/7800/7700) – This pitching slate is not exactly very friendly, but I suppose at his price, Lugo has some upside going against the Padres. Yes, it is an easy target kind of deal with him, but we basically know what we are getting with them. Lugo might not have a ton of upside, but he is still in a favorable position.

Jon Gray (17400/6900/9000) – Speaking of pitchers who just cannot get things going their way in 2017, why not talk about Jon Gray? The injury derailed him right off the bat, and now he is in a position where he is taking on a Cardinals team that has some bats that can do damage. The price is fair, and the risk is there, but I cannot help but believe he is going to break out of this soon.

INFIELD

Jake Lamb (10400/3800/5300) – Mike Foltynewicz is just an easier target to pick on for left-handers. On the year, he has allowed a .373 wOBA, 42.5% fly ball rate and 33% hard contact against them. Lamb can certainly put a charge into a ball, and I think he should have some success at Chase Field tonight.

Daniel Murphy (9200/3900/4700) – I also don’t mind picking on Zach Davies tonight. This year, he has given up a .361 wOBA, 34.1% fly ball rate and 32% hard contact. The Nationals are a team that I could easily see taking advantage of all of that tonight, and Murphy is one of my favorite plays of the bunch.

Orlando Arcia (6400/2900/3300) – Edwin Jackson might only have five appearances to his credit this year, but things have not been good. He is allowing a .443 wOBA, 42.3% fly ball rate, 27.3% HR/FB ratio and 37% hard contact against righties. Arcia has shown the ability to get things done this year, and if Jackson continues to struggle, we could get cheap exposure with upside.

OUTFIELD

Mookie Betts (9900/4200/5100) – Basically this is very simple for me. Felix Hernandez can typically pitch through a game without giving us much upside, but also without giving up much in the terms of allowing fantasy points. I look at this and think to myself that one person is likely to get ahold of one and do some damage. For me, that is going to be Mookie Betts. I will not be playing him in cash games, but I do see the value of using him in tournaments.

Michael Conforto (10400/3900/5300) – Who struggles horribly bad against left-handed bats? Jhoulys Chacin, that’s who! The white hot Conforto will go up against him tonight, and should be able to dominate. Chacin and his .367 wOBA, 30.9% fly ball rate and 34.3% hard contact might not have stats that jump off the paper as bad, but he is a primary ground ball pitcher who cannot handle lefties. Load up on Conforto tonight.

George Springer (11200/4000/5700) – Nick Pivetta is a disaster against right-handers, so loading up on some Astros bats will make sense tonight. He is giving up a .429 wOBA, 44.5% fly ball rate, 28.6% HR/FB ratio and 45.1% hard contact. There is no reason to not buy into the Astros righties tonight. UPDATE: I typically write these the previous night as lineups lock to get them done early. Springer is out. The righties are in a good spot tonight, but do the Astros have enough to cause problems? Pivetta has shown decent upside recently, so I do not hate using him if you think the Astros might struggle.

 

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