MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 7/15/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Madison Bumgarner (20400/11000/10500) – Madison Bumgarner makes just his fifth start of the year, and he does so against the awful San Diego Padres. He’s been pitching in the minor’s, so I don’t think we’ll have much of an issue with a pitch count. He’s a great play in all formats tonight.

Jimmy Nelson (18900/9100/9700) – Nelson is getting his stuff together and he gets an excellent matchup against the Phillies. This is typically clockwork, except for the fact that he’s taking on Aaron Nola, a great pitcher in his own right. He should be able to go deeper into this game, and the upside is pretty sizable.

Aaron Nola (17100/8800/8800) – Speaking of Aaron Nola, I also really like him tonight. The price is right, and the opportunity is there. Yes, the Brewers are a team that can put some runs up on the board, but they can also strikeout a ton. I’m banking on this being a very low scoring game, and Nola is one of my top options.

INFIELD

Jake Lamb (9300/3700/4800) – Mike Foltynewicz isn’t one of those pitchers we shy away from when we see him going against some quality lefties. Jake Lamb qualifies as that, even though Folty’s hard contact isn’t super high at 32%, his wOBA of .371 and a fly ball rate of 42% make Lamb look like a quality play tonight.

Brian Dozier (8000/3100/4100) – Joe Musgrove is another guy I like to go after, specifically with righties. On the year, he’s allowing a .381 wOBA, 39.4% hard contact and 34.1% hard contact against righties. Even though I’ll always like Dozier better against lefties, I don’t mind using him tonight against Musgrove.

Jose Abreu (7600/3600/4000) – We’ve sadly hit the point in his career where Felix Hernandez is just not very good anymore. It’s sad from a career perspective, but works out just fine for fantasy purposes. Against righties on the year, Felix is allowing a .380 wOBA, a 32.9% fly ball rate, 30.8% HR/FB ratio and 32.1% hard contact all point toward a guy like Abreu having a big night at the plate.

OUTFIELD

Corey Dickerson (8000/3500/4100) – JC Ramirez is getting his clock cleaned right now by left-handed bats. He’s giving up a .381 wOBA, 37.3% fly ball rate, 26.3% HR/FB ratio and 45.8% hard contact. It’s hard not to like Corey Dickerson tonight, and he’s one of my favorite plays tonight.

Nelson Cruz (9300/4300/4800) – Derek Holland is being pounded by righties, and Nelson Cruz is a lefty-killer, so this lines up just as well as you could possibly want it to. On the year, Holland is allowing a .386 wOBA, 42.7% fly ball rate, 18.6% HR/FB ratio and 40.9% hard contact. That’s a lot working in Cruz’ favor, making him my top play of the night. UPDATE: Derek Holland has been moved from the rotation, but I think Cruz is still viable tonight.

Matt Kemp (6300/2700/3200) – Patrick Corbin isn’t a pitcher that we should go out of our way to avoid. He’s keeping the fly balls under 30% right now , but he’s giving up a decent amount of hard contact at 35%, and has given up a fair amount of home runs this year. Matt Kemp jumps off the page to me as someone who could come through big tonight and will make a number of my tournament lineups.

 

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