MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/7/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Zack Greinke (24000/10700/12400) – It’s a toss up at the top between Greinke and Keuchel, but I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to Greinke, who is in a much better matchup. Even though this is at Chase Field, the Padres strike out a lot more than the Royals do, so Greinke should be able to rebound from his last outing. The upside is certainly there, and he’ll be among the highest owned players tonight.

Jimmy Nelson (15300/8900/7900) – Nelson came through for me in a big way on Friday, going strikeout for strikeout [almost] with Clayton Kershaw. Perhaps this is just trying to go back to the well too quickly, but the Giants aren’t the best hitting team in baseball. They don’t strikeout, but they could struggle in the same way the Dodgers did with Nelson last weekend. I won’t trust him in cash games, but he’s worth a look in tournaments.

Alex Meyer (12000/7300/6000) – If Jake Odorizzi pitches, he’s worth a look, but I’ve seen conflicting reports of that. Meyer hasn’t been bad or good thus far this year, and we know this Tigers lineup can just go cold out of nowhere. His ceiling is probably 6 innings and 7 strikeouts, but at the price, he could be worth a look.

INFIELD

Kyle Seager (7200/3300/3600) – Kyle Seager gets Adalberto Mejia tonight, in what should be a pretty solid matchup for him. On the year, Mejia is allowing a .455 wOBA and 37.5% hard contact. The fly ball rate isn’t high, but I can still see Seager coming through here. This hasn’t been a good year for him on a whole, but I think the ship could get right tonight.

Chris Davis (9000/4000/4600) – Chris Davis is a guy who just doesn’t end up in my lineups a lot. He always has upside, but still, he just doesn’t end up there. Chad Kuhl has been a disaster against left-handed pitching, allowing a .442 wOBA, 48.8% fly ball rate and 38.8% hard contact rate. That sets up well for Davis, who could add to his home run total tonight.

Brian Dozier (7200/3400/3600) – Dozier, much like Seager, hasn’t really gotten things going so far this year. This is a promising matchup against Yovani Gallardo, who is allowing a .406 wOBA and 38% hard contact to right-handed hitters on the year. The price is right for Dozier, and I’d be willing to take some shots on him in tournaments tonight.

OUTFIELD

Dexter Fowler (9600/3300/4900) – I’m waiting for the Cardinals to do something in this series, as they have mostly just been present and nothing more in Cincinnati. Bronson Arroyo is on the mound, and his .393 wOBA, 53.7% fly ball rate and 36.6% hard contact bode well for Fowler, who cannot be trusted in cash games at this point.

Aaron Hicks (8800/3400/4600) – Rick Porcello can be best described as all over the map this year. He hasn’t been very good at all, and his .347 wOBA, 33% fly ball rate and 40.2% hard contact rate back that up. With Hicks playing solid baseball right now, and not criminally overpriced yet, I’ll be willing to take some shots myself.

Giancarlo Stanton (9200/4200/4700) – Cubs pitching has been unpredictable so far this year, and it could be bad news for John Lackey tonight. His 36% hard contact against righty bats could end up being all that Stanton needs to get things done tonight. I’ll have quite a bit of him in my tournament lineups tonight.

 

Slate Strategy

I love the idea of stacking Keuchel and Greinke tonight. There will without question be enough value on the slate to do it and not lose a ton on bats, and I could see monster games coming from both of them.

Yu Darvish needs to do something impressive. Thus far, he’s been average at best. The Mets aren’t a team that profile well against him, so he could end up with another headache tonight. That doesn’t mean I won’t have some exposure to him though.

I am always a fan when somehow the Rockies get shifted to the early slate. It will inevitably create more unique lineups on the night slate as a result. We get plenty of Coors games a year, so I think we can all deal with one night off.

Mike Pelfrey has made it three straight games looking like a competent pitcher. I fully expect that to come crashing to a halt tonight.

Top Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays [Dickerson/Kiermaier/Souza/Morrison]

Baltimore Orioles [Davis/Smith/Machado/Jones]

 

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