MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/4/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Chris Sale (24800/11400/12800) – Sale is coming off his worst performance of the year against the White Sox, who actually do hit left-handed pitching pretty well. He gets an Orioles team today that is in a similar situation, but not exactly as nice. The near 25% strikeout rate is what stands out here to me. The 36.1% hard contact rate is somewhat concerning, but I could see this being a nice bounce back game for Sale.

Luis Severino (17700/9300/9100) – Even though the Blue Jays aren’t exactly striking out a lot this year, they are still a good matchup for righties. I am a big believer in Severino, and I think he could end up being a great play today. I hate throwing the top priced options out there, but I do think that is going to be the way to go with things today.

Matt Moore (15600/7700/8100) – With Robbie Ray having his start pushed to Tuesday, that leaves us with a shortage of pitching I have any interest in. Moore has been everywhere this year, but I’ll take some shots with him against the Phillies today. The price is reasonable, and, while I don’t think he has a ton of upside, it could be good enough for SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

INFIELD

Joey Votto (9900/4800/5100) – Votto is always someone that we can use in our cash games, and I don’t mind him in tournaments today, despite the fact he’ll see high ownership. Julio Teheran has been awful against lefties this year, to the tune of a .374 wOBA, 44.8% fly ball rate and 36.8% hard contact rate. This is a great place to start building tonight.

Eric Hosmer (7500/4100/3800) – Trevor Bauer is always a fair pitcher to target in daily games as well. There will be games where he comes through for his owners, but a lot of the time is going to be filled with disappointment. Bauer’s .375 wOBA, 38.4% fly ball rate and 42.1% hard contact show the upside for Hosmer tonight.

Gary Sanchez (9000/3400/4600) – Marcus Stroman is a solid pitcher, but honestly, he’s likely to give up a home run or two in this game. I don’t think he’ll get beat up, but he’ll give up a few runs. Sanchez provides a good bet to be involved in that scoring, so we’ll give him the nod here.

OUTFIELD

David Peralta (8000/3400/4100) – Vance Worley isn’t a good pitcher, though we’ve really yet to see him get beat up bad in any of his starts this year. He’s a bullpen arm, and doesn’t have the volume to really trust the numbers we’ve seen this year. Fortunately, he’s been around for awhile, so we know he does have lefty struggles. Peralta will make it into a lot of my lineups today.

Yasiel Puig (7500/3100/3800) – I was very happy to have a lot of Jimmy Nelson shares on Friday night, but I will have no Zach Davies shares today. He’s been horrible against righties this year to the tune of a .421 wOBA, 30% fly ball rate and 33.7% hard contact. Puig is someone who can get a hold of one and take it deep, and I love the matchup today.

Matt Kemp (10200/3800/5200) – Typical of a new big league lefty, Amir Garrett has struggled with right-handed hitting. He’s allowed a .366 wOBA, 39.5% fly ball rate and 39.3% hard contact this year against righties, and at this ballpark, that is not good. I’ll have a lot of Kemp tonight, and I think he’ll finally come through for us.

 

Slate Strategy

I think unless you see a ton of value with hitters today, we are going to have to take chances with pitching. There aren’t a ton of exciting options available for us that come cheap, but I think someone will come through today. We might not seeing coming, but did we see Edinson Volquez pitching a no hitter yesterday? Nope.

I like Sale and Severino, even though they do have risk associated with their matchup. I didn’t cover Justin Verlander here, and even though he hasn’t been dominant this year, I do think he’s still talented enough to come through today.

This is one of those days where I can see picking on far more pitchers than I want to use. Typically, I can make a case for more pitchers than hitters, but today certainly doesn’t fit the bill. It’s going to be all about figuring who is going to give up the biggest games.

Top Stacks

Detroit Tigers [Cabrera/Castellanos/Martinez/Upton]

Cincinnati Reds [Votto/Duvall/Suarez/Mesoraco]

 

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