MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/29/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Clayton Kershaw (25800/12500/13300) – It’s that day of the week. Even though Kershaw hasn’t been as dominant over the last month or so, he’s still the top option to use in cash games and tournaments. The Angels might not strike out a ton, but at the same time this is Kershaw and the Angels lineup doesn’t look that great at all. I’m a buyer tonight.

Jameson Taillon (15000/8300/7500) – Taillon hasn’t been great since coming back from the DL, but he’s been serviceable. He’ll be taking on a Rays team that, as I said yesterday, can strikeout or home run with the best of them. I’m willing to take a shot on Taillon in tournaments, though I don’t know where I’ll land on him with cash game play yet.

Jaime Garcia (13200/7700/6700) – Jaime has seen better days as of late, but he gets a very nice matchup against the Padres tonight. While I don’t think he’s as good as Sean Newcomb, I still think Garcia should be in a favorable position tonight. He’s not someone I really want to look at in my cash games, but I like the upside in tournaments.

INFIELD

Travis Shaw (9300/3800/4800) – Homer Bailey didn’t look like he belonged in baseball in his first outing this year. While it’s highly unlikely to be that bad this time, it’s still not a favorable situation against a Milwaukee team that has some major power. Shaw has been a great hitter from a power perspective, and it wouldn’t be fair to use this year’s stats from Bailey since it’s only been one game, but Shaw could dominate again tonight.

Mitch Moreland (7800/3400/4000) – Kyle Gibson is one of my favorite pitchers to target with lefties, and tonight will be no different. His .399 wOBA, 38.5% fly ball rate and 39% hard contact show a guy that can get hit and hit hard. Moreland can do a lot of damage, and I suspect we’ll see one of those multi-homer games coming from him soon.

Joey Votto (9300/4100/4700) – Jimmy Nelson can be a good enough pitcher. He isn’t an absolute gas can. You know that isn’t how you want to start out describing a pitcher. He’s got a lot of good stuff, but if his control is off, bad things happen. Votto is still one of the best overall hitters in the game. He’s got a great chance in this game of cobbling together some hits and some RBI’s. That’s enough for me to consider him.

OUTFIELD

Aaron Judge (11100/4900/5700) – James Shields was looking better than 2016 in his first few starts of the year, but it’s hard to imagine that happening tonight. Judge is just a monster. Shields is a high fly ball pitcher, almost 45% to righties, and he gives up almost 34% hard contact. I suspect we’ll see Judge take one out of the park tonight.

Jose Bautista (8000/3900/4100) – I know people love stats, but I have one thing that goes above stats: Ubaldo Jiminez. Do you really need me to break down why you should play against Jiminez? Fine. High wOBA, high enough fly ball rate and hard enough contact. Also, he’s bad. There. I hope you’re happy.

Joc Pederson (8400/3800/4400) – J.C. Ramirez started off the year with some promise, but things have fallen apart quickly. He’s currently allowing a .399 wOBA, 39.2% fly ball rate and 45.1% hard contact. Pederson is not a reliable option for cash games, but does carry big time upside for tournaments.

 

Slate Strategy

Clayton Kershaw should dominate ownership tonight, and is ultimately the only pitcher I could see going 60/40 on FD/DK respectively. The choice to fade him is yours, but eventually, he’s going to have a monster game and this seems like one of those spots where players might think about getting off. His results have been good for anyone not names Clayton Kershaw. I just wouldn’t do it to myself.

Aside from that, we’ve got some solid options for pitching, so we should have no shortage of options there. I do wish we got some of the day time pitching options, but you get what you get.

The Dodgers and Yankees are both in good spots tonight, so I expect the ownership to start there.

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers [Bellinger/Pederson/Taylor/Forsythe]

Milwaukee Brewers [Shaw/Braun/Arcia/Pina]

 

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