MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/28/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Chase Anderson (18800/9100/9700) – I just can’t trust Stephen Strasburg. I get it. If you want to take the chance in tournaments fine. I just don’t trust him. I don’t love this matchup here for Chase Anderson, but he’s been pitching really well. The matchup is actually horrible, but that doesn’t mean he can’t put things together. I’d love to inundate you with stats that back this up, but let’s be real: stats fail in baseball constantly. He’s doing well, and I like his chances of continuing that tonight.

Masahiro Tanaka (16000/8900/8300) – Tanaka is another guy I really don’t trust, but he seems to be getting into the swing of things now. This is actually a much better matchup than Anderson, and the strikeouts have been coming around for Tanaka as of late as well. I don’t think I’d hesitate to use him in cash games based on how everything breaks down tonight.

Ivan Nova (12800/8100/6400) – The Rays are a good team to grab exposure to on some occasion, specifically when an average or better pitcher is on the mound. Yes, they can score with the best of them and their ISO and HH% stay pretty high, but so does their strikeout rate. Nova isn’t a high K% guy, but he is a guy who just comes out of nowhere and goes 7 2/3 innings with 5 strikeouts and one run allowed. I’ll take that as an SP2.

INFIELD

Eric Sogard (7800/3000/3900) – Luis Castillo only has one game of MLB data to go from in 2017, but I still see him as being someone who we shouldn’t have reservations about picking on. Sogard has been playing way over his head this year, but I think he’s still worth a look tonight. The stats are in his favor, but are limited due to lack of playing time by Castillo.

Ryon Healy (6800/3100/3500) – I really don’t like baseball, so it’s only DFS (and one season long league) for me. I don’t pay a ton of attention to the whole spectrum of what is happening. I was amazed to see Healy at 17 home runs thus far on the year. He gets a great matchup tonight with David Paulino and his 51% fly ball rate and 41% hard contact against righties. I can see a big game coming.

Salvador Perez (7600/3200/3800) – It’s really not often that I’ll go to the Royals, but it makes sense tonight with Daniel Norris on the mound. Norris is actually a good enough pitcher, but I like how this sets up for Salvador Perez. Norris’ 35.2% fly ball rate and 41.5% hard contact against righties can cause him some trouble tonight, and I like Perez and his upside.

OUTFIELD

Mookie Betts (9900/3900/5000) – I was right about Parker Bridwell the other night, but I don’t feel the same about Adalberto Mieja tonight. He’s been giving up big games all year, and a .350 wOBA, 35.7% fly ball rate and 36.8% hard contact aren’t something to hang your hat on. Betts might not be having the greatest year, but this is a good matchup.

Nomar Mazara (8100/3400/4200) – I want Trevor Bauer to be a good pitcher, and he is at times. But when he’s not, it’s ugly. On the year, he’s allowing a 38.3% fly ball rate and 36% hard contact rate to lefties. Mazara has been able to have his way as of late, so I think there is clear upside there for him to have a strong game.

Max Kepler (6400/2600/3300) – This could be a bit of a long shot play, but with how Rick Porcello has been pitching this year, it could happen. He’s allowed a .351 wOBA, 49% fly ball rate and 46.2% hard contact against lefties this year, and while Kepler hasn’t been consistent, I could still see him getting over here.

 

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