MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/27/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Max Scherzer (25200/12000/13000) – Max Scherzer takes the mound today for the Nationals as they go up against the Cubs. Frankly, I haven’t been impressed on a whole with the Cubs this year, but even if it was the 2016 Cubs, I’d still play Scherzer. He’s probably the best pitcher behind Chris Sale on the year, and with his strikeout rate, he could have a huge night tonight.

Luis Severino (19600/9200/10100) – Severino is still one of my favorite pitchers, despite having back to back poor outings. He gets a White Sox team tonight that does struggle with right-handed pitching, so he should be in for a good showing. The price is very nice considering what the upside could be, so I’ll take some shots with him tonight.

Sean Newcomb (13200/7700/6700) – Sean Newcomb might not be a big strikeout pitcher thus far. Big deal. He’s more than a serviceable option, and he’s taking on a San Diego team that just doesn’t do well against lefties. The price is very good on him, and even though he is going against the Padres, the lack of name value could keep ownership low. I’m willing to buy in tonight, and I think he makes a fair tournament option.

INFIELD

Justin Bour (7200/3000/3700) – Robert Gsellman has been horrible this year. He’s been rocked in more games than any pitcher should, but that makes him a great target tonight. Bour is a guy I think in particular who could take advantage of him, especially considering his .361 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate. I can see a nice game coming from Bour tonight.

Justin Turner (9300/3900/4700) – There is little question in my mind that Jesse Chavez makes for a great pitcher to target as well. On the year against righties, he’s allowing a .385 wOBA, 39.1% fly ball rate and 39.7% hard contact. Turner is great at making solid contact, and I think he should put forth a well rounded effort tonight.

Buster Posey (7600/3400/4000) – Well, the fun with Jeff Hoffman sure was fun while it lasted. He’s now posted two really poor outings, including one that was just an absolute joke, and now takes on a team that he had a tough time with two starts back. The 43.8% fly ball rate and 40.8% hard contact don’t paint a pretty picture, and a guy like Posey should be able to dominate this matchup tonight.

OUTFIELD

Ender Inciarte (8000/3300/4200) – I feel like we always talk Matt Adams when we talk about Braves lefties, so why not drop Inciarte in there tonight? He’ll be going up against Jhoulys Chacin who just can’t seem to slow anyone down. His .390 wOBA against lefties and his 37.4% hard contact rate should put Inciarte in a position to succeed tonight.

Shin-soo Choo (7800/3600/3900) – Mike Clevinger is another guy I don’t mind picking on. His hard contact might not be enormous, but his .355 wOBA and 52.3% fly ball rate against lefties certainly aren’t good. Choo has been swinging a hot stick as of late, and makes a reasonable tournament option tonight.

Khris Davis (8000/3600/4100) – Khris Davis is a frequent mention in these breakdowns, and he gets another strong matchup tonight. Mike Fiers has been better recently against righties, but his .374 wOBA, 37.4% fly ball rate and 32% hard contact still aren’t great. I like the upside that Davis brings to the table in this matchup, so I don’t mind using him tonight.

 

Slate Strategy

Big slates are great, and tonight is no different. There are so many different ways to go with pitching and hitting.

In total, there are about a dozen pitchers I really don’t have reservations playings and about a dozen pitchers I wouldn’t mind having exposure against. That should certainly make things fun.

It really feels tough to stomach Severino’s price on DraftKings tonight. I feel like you could end up spending down with guys like Aaron Nola and Newcomb that maybe don’t have the upside that Severino has, but they really let you exploit the hitting that is out there.

I can’t wait to see Cleveland see heavy ownership and Tyson Ross pitch a gem. Why? Because that’s just how baseball works. More than any other sport, variance is king.

Don’t be afraid to go after Carlos Martinez at Chase Field. He’s a good pitcher, but that seems like a stadium he is built to fail in.

Top Stacks

Tampa Bay Rays [Dickerson/Smith/Morrison/Longoria]

Miami Marlins [Bour/Stanton/Gordon/Yelich]

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