MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/19/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Clayton Kershaw (26000/12500/13500) – When Kershaw is on the mound, he goes in at least some of our lineups. He’s a cash game staple. The Mets really aren’t a tough opponent for the most part, though you would rather see them striking out more than 21% of the time. Still, he’s the best thing going on the mound today. Kluber is close, but I like Kershaw a lot tonight.

Jon Lester (20400/9900/10500) – Lester is all over the place this year, but there is a ton of upside with him tonight against the Padres. They’ve been striking out 24.5% of the time against lefties, and they just aren’t making good contact at all. He’s a decent savings from Kershaw with a far worse floor, but has potentially a bigger realistic ceiling tonight.

Zack Wheeler (13800/8200/7000) – Zack Wheeler hasn’t been great at any point in the year, but I’m willing to use him in tournaments tonight against a Dodgers team that is coming back from a road trip. Sure, they have a day and a half to recoup, but that isn’t always enough. They definitely aren’t a great matchup, but he could get it done for you tonight.

INFIELD

Eric Thames (9300/3800/4700) – This is going to be an interesting test for Gerrit Cole tonight. He hasn’t been great this year against lefties, and that is with half of his games in a pitcher’s park. As this game move to Miller Park, a definitive hitting environment, his .372 wOBA, 36.8% fly ball rate and 41.4% hard contact could be a problem. Thames has four home runs in his last five games, so the upside is there for him as he is starting to really see the ball again.

Robinson Chirinos (6800/2900/3500) – Marco Estrada is much like Gerrit Cole: a average pitcher going into a poor pitching environment. Estrada will head to Texas, where his 46.2% fly ball rate and 29.6% hard contact will be put to the test against a righty like Chirinos. The upside is there for Robinson, and he could very well send one deep, which is one of Estrada’s bigger issues.

Eugenio Suarez (6000/3100/3100) – Jake Odorizzi isn’t a poor pitcher. The situation with Odorizzi is that when he does get hit, there is typically a lot of damage done. His wOBA might be low, but his 39.2% fly ball rate and 44.0% hard contact show that when he gets his, it’s in the air and it probably goes far. Suarez can certainly come through with a big game tonight.

OUTFIELD

Mitch Haniger (8400/3500/4300) – Anibal Sanchez is one of the worst pitchers in baseball, and undoubtedly, the Mariners will be one of the top targets in tournaments and cash games tonight. Against righties, Sanchez is allowing a .507 wOBA, 42.9% fly ball rate and 55.6% hard contact to righties. Haniger has been a pleasant surprise this year, and is someone who could absolutely mash tonight.

Bryce Harper (10800/4600/5500) – Edinson Volquez is a pitcher that can have success in certain areas, but facing a team like the Nationals probably isn’t one of them. He’s giving up a .357 wOBA, 38.5% fly ball rate and 41.1% hard contact rate against lefties this year. We know Bryce Harper is good, so this pretty much means he’s our top player of the day.

Adam Frazier (9000/3400/4600) – On the flip side of the Gerrit Cole matchup is Matt Garza. Much like Cole, he struggles against lefties as well. Garza’s .352 wOBA, 41.9% fly ball rate and 36.4% hard contact won’t play well against the lefties in Miller. Frazier is in a good spot, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a nice game tonight.

 

Slate Strategy

This is a nice Monday slate. The only thing it really lacks is pitching. We are very top heavy with Kershaw, Lester and Kluber on the mound. All of those guys are viable options. Zack Wheeler could do well if the Dodgers experience some difficulties coming off the road, but really, that’s a tournament look only.

Jason Hammel has been pitching well as of late, so I guess he isn’t the worst option in tournaments. I’d love to be able to trust in Dylan Bundy, but after a nice start, he’s been starting to show the inconsistency we’ve known from him over the years.

Anibal Sanchez is highly likely to pull the Mariners to be the highest owned bats, with the Nationals following. Behind them, I would expect Houston to yield some bats that will carry heavier ownership.

Top Stacks

Seattle Mariners [Haniger/Cruz/Seager/Cano]

Washington Nationals [Harper/Murphy/Turner/Zimmerman]

 

Thanks for reading! Don’t ever hesitate to reach out in the comments, follow us on Twitter @researchandwin or email us at host@researchfantasy.com!