MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/15/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Chris Sale (27200/11500/14100) – For the third day in a row, the Phillies, the worst team in the league (or close to it) against righties, will take on a lefty. Sale is without question the best lefty they have faced thus far, though. Here’s what you can expect: 2-3 runs scored against him (Tommy Joseph/Aaron Altherr decent tournament punts) and probably 10 strikeouts. That’s what he does. If he’s able to shut them down, that number could jump, but I don’t see it being lower than that.

Jordan Montgomery (16800/7600/8600) – I think this might be the only time Montgomery will be on this list this year. The slate is short, pitching, as usual, doesn’t abound and he isn’t costly. He’s put together some solid games in a row, and gets an Athletics team that hasn’t been doing well for themselves lately. Their 25.4% strikeout rate gives him a bump in that category, so he makes a nice tournament play.

Jeff Hoffman (14800/6600/7500) – Jeff Hoffman has been awesome as of late, and he gets to take on the Giants, but this game is in Coors. Most of his activity has taken place outside of Coors, though he does have a nice 8 strikeout game against the Dodgers there. He hasn’t faltered since entering the starting rotation, and while the Giants aren’t a great matchup, with the way he’s been pitching, he could still be worth a look in tournaments.

INFIELD

Alex Avila (8000/3300/4100) – Alex Cobb is on the mound tonight for the Rays, and it presents a good matchup for the Tigers. He’s been a little bit worse off against lefties, so we’ll go with Alex Avila in this spot. Cobbs 38% fly ball rate and 42% hard contact will make for a good matchup for Avila, who is having the season of his life right now.

Didi Gregorious (8100/3500/4200) – The Yankees continue their west coast swing, and land in Oakland tonight. Sonny Gray will be making the start for the Athletics, and he just isn’t someone I shy away from. Didi has been hitting the ball very well, and still gets overlooked at a weak position. I don’t expect that to be the case tonight, and he’s going to be one of my favorite targets.

Whit Merrifield (7200/3300/3600) – I love picking on Ricky Nolasco, but damnit, why does it have to be the Royals? The 40.8% fly ball rate mixed with 41.4% hard contact rate paint an ugly picture, but Whit is one of the guys I feel like I can trust in this situation. He’ll be a go to in tournaments tonight.

OUTFIELD

Charlie Blackmon (10800/5100/5500) – I’ve been going to Mr. Blackmon for a few days now, and he continues to point his finger and mock me with his 0-for’s each night. Tonight, he will be back at home in Coors, taking on a lefty who is horrible against lefties. Sure, he doesn’t face as many, but it should not be as bad as a .482 wOBA, 40.3% fly ball rate and 50% hard contact. GET IT DONE CHARLIE!!

Mookie Betts (10200/3700/5200) – Mookie Betts is white hot right now, and gets to take on Nick Pivetta who doesn’t stand a chance against right-handed hitting. Pivetta’s .428 wOBA, 37.7% fly ball rate and 38.9% hard contact paint a picture of a guy who gets hit and hit hard and Betts will likely dominate again tonight.

Aaron Altherr (7800/2900/3900) – Like I said above, there is a decent chance Sale gives up a few runs. One of my favorite strategies with elite strikeout pitchers has been to pair one bat against them in a small amount of tournaments that I think could go deep. No, I didn’t play Roberto Perez against Clayton Kershaw, because that’s insane. It isn’t as insane to think Altherr couldn’t rip one off of Sale tonight.

 

Slate Strategy

Thursday is a night I like to take off a lot. Friday tends to be a bigger slate, and I get the rush of PGA DFS during the day, but I like this slate.

Sale is the clear cut top option, and it isn’t even close. Gio Gonzalez against a team of lefties sounds tempting, but I don’t like using him. He’s has blow-up written all over him.

There are a few other pitchers I could see using in addition to those on the list tonight. I think the best thing to keep in mine about pitching tonight is that you might not see many high scores, and it might be about picking the least damaged one.

From there, I will use Boston righties specifically against Nick Pivetta. I think Mookie Betts is a free square on FanDuel at that price. Be prepared for 80%+ ownership in cash games.

Ricky Nolasco, Zach Davies and Matt Strahm would be my next targets.

Top Stacks

Boston Red Sox (Betts/Pedroia/Bogaerts/Ramirez)

Los Angeles Angels (Maybin/Simmons/Calhoun/Young Jr.)

 

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