MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 6/13/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Clayton Kershaw (25200/12500/12900) – It’s a day of the week ending in y, so of course Clayton Kershaw is on this list if he is pitching. The Indians actually profile as a good opponent for him. They don’t have a super high ISO or HH%, but the strikeouts are a bit low. Kershaw will certainly offset that, and he makes the top pitching option on this slate.

Jason Vargas (16000/8500/8300) – Vargas has a few good weeks to start the year, but then for the most part has just been not very solid. The matchup tonight is a decent one, except, again, the strikeouts. 20.3% isn’t the worst, I guess, but we still want more. The wOBA, HH% and ISO are all very low, so this should represent a fair matchup for him, but it will be in tournaments only.

Scott Feldman (14000/7900/7000) – This should be fun. Feldman has been all over the place this year, posting either 40+ point outings or sub-10 outings. The opponent could be better here though. He gets the Padres and their laughably high strikeout rate of 26%. If his stuff is on, you’re getting a great point per dollar play. If he’s off, well, you’re done. That’s baseball though.

INFIELD

Robinson Cano (8400/3100/4400) – What can we say about Kyle Gibson? The first thing we can say is that he’s markedly worse against lefties in terms of fly ball rate. He’s allowing almost 40% against them with a 40% hard contact as well. Cano can make contact with the best of them, and he’ll be someone I drop into a lot of my lineups tonight.

Miguel Sano (9200/4100/4800) – On the flip side of the game, Christian Bergman is bad against righties. His 47.7% fly ball rate with 33% hard contact rate set up poorly against someone like Sano. He’s been featured in our breakdown over the past few nights and I think he could be in for a solid game tonight.

Manny Machado (8100/3800/4100) – Machado was back in the Orioles lineup last night, so one would expect for him to be in there again tonight. I really like getting him there against mid to lower tier lefties. That’s what Derek Holland is. His .381 wOBA, 44.7% fly ball rate and 44.4% hard contact should cause him to give up some deep shots here, and I think we’ll see Machado put together a nice game tonight.

OUTFIELD

Ender Inciarte (7200/3600/3700) – Joe Ross had a really nice game last week, and I expect that to push his ownership position up a bit. While he could be improving, he still struggles with lefty bats. His .408 wOBA, 34% fly ball rate and 38.5% hard contact aren’t good and it could allow for someone like Inciarte to come through with a big game tonight.

Charlie Blackmon (10800/4900/5500) – Gerrit Cole hasn’t been good at all against lefties this year. A .385 wOBA, 36.2% fly ball rate and 42.8% hard contact are all bad. Blackmon can do a ton of damage in so many ways. He makes for a solid cash game play even outside of Coors Field tonight.

Khris Davis (9000/3900/4600) – Jose Urena has been an average at best pitcher as of late, but still can get hit. The hard contact is only 30% against righties, but Krush can change that in the blink of an eye. He’s a tournament option only, but he doesn’t always carry a ton of ownership, and makes a solid play tonight.

 

Slate Strategy

Clayton Kershaw. In your cash games. Even though he’s expensive. You know why? Because there is virtually no chance what happened to Stephen Strasburg last night will happen to him.

In your tournaments, I’m all about playing the matchups and making uncomfortable decisions. There are a number of pitchers like David Price, Vargas, Tyler Chatwood and Marco Estrada that all fall into that category. I think we can find some gems at low prices today, so I am not going to stress to much about how I’ll get value into my lineups tonight.

There are quite a few pitchers I don’t mind picking on tonight. Trevor Bauer could be in for some trouble, and I really like the Dodgers tonight. The White Sox and the Orioles could be strong plays as well tonight. I’m a big fan of those stacks.

Really, I see about a dozen teams I’ll have some exposure to tonight.

Top Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers [Bellinger/Seager/Grandal/Taylor]

Baltimore Orioles [Machado/Trumbo/Jones/Mancini]

 

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