MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 5/7/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Chris Sale (24600/11900/12600) – Chris Sale is above and beyond the best pitcher on the slate, and it’s not even close. He might be the best pitcher to start the year out. The Twins have been pretty good this year all around, but you don’t face pitchers like Sale all the time. Yeah, Coors is on the slate, but the pitching isn’t the greatest. I think it’s easier to find offense than to find good pitching. Pay up, and move on.

Jose Quintana (18900/9000/9800) – Quintana seems to be getting hit footing at this point. The Orioles, who were able to hit lefties a lot last year, haven’t been great this year, striking out at a 27% clip. That is too good of a matchup for me to pass up in tournaments, and I do think I’ll have a lot of Sale/Quintana stacks.

Tanner Roark (16800/8300/8700) – This is all about matchup to me. The Phillies just aren’t good, and even though Roark does have some issues against lefites, but overall I think he should be able to shut the Phillies down. I think he makes a pretty nice option in tournaments today.

CATCHER

Chris Hermann (8100/3000) – I’ve been waiting to use Hermann in this series, so hopefully today will be the day. This is an idea hitting environment for him to be in, so I want to have exposure to him, even though it’s highly unlikely he’ll be low owned. There’s nothing special about the matchup, just the park.

Rene Rivera (4500/2500/2300) – Even though Jose Urena isn’t giving up hard contact, he is getting hit a lot by righties. Rivera has been done quite well for himself with Travis d’Arnaud on the disabled list, and should be in your lineups if he is playing on Sunday.

FIRST BASE

Matt Carpenter (7800/4100/3900) – Carpenter has looked really solid during this series with the Braves, and with R.A. Dickey on the mound, it doesn’t look like anything will change. He won’t have a ton of ownership because the position is stacked, but he has huge upside.

Justin Smoak (5600/2800/2800) – Alex Cobb is giving up a wOBA to lefties of .423 and hard contact at 40%. Smoak has actually been hitting pretty well as of late, and he’s another guy who is highly unlikely to see high ownership today.

SECOND BASE

D.J. LeMahieu (9000/3600) – Taijuan Walker is an unpredictable pitcher, and this is not a good environment for him to be in. LeMahieu is usually the one that is left out of Rockies stacks, and today could be a day he makes people pay.

Jonathan Villar (7600/3200/4000) – Hopefully Francisco Cervelli is catching, because he is awful at throwing out base runners. If Villar manages to get on base, he could rack up a few steals today.

THIRD BASE

Mike Moustakas (7200/3400/3600) – Trevor Bauer gives up way too much hard contact and way too much action to opposing teams, but this is the Royals we are talking about. They are pretty much the most disappointing team in baseball. I still like Moustakas as a possible home run threat today.

Josh Harrison (6900/3400/3500) – A .479 wOBA and 40.7% hard contact puts Zach Davies on this list, and Josh Harrison as well. He can light a pitcher up as we’ve seen through this week, and can be considered in your tournament lineups tonight.

SHORTSTOP

Xander Bogaerts (8700/3500/4400) – Ervin Santana might have a 0.66 ERA, but that isn’t going to last forever. Bogaerts is finally starting to see the ball well, and even though I do think Santana is a good pitcher, I think Bogaerts will be able to get to him.

Andrelton Simmons (6000/2900) – Mike Fiers is awful against right-handed hitters. A .487 wOBA, 53.1% fly ball rate and a 40.6% hard hit rate puts Simmons squarely on my radar tonight.

OUTFIELD

Mike Trout (10000/5200) – Oh please Mike Trout, please play today! Trout is a monster at home against right-handed pitcher, so this is kind of a match made in heaven. That is, of course, if he manages to play.

Ian Desmond (9600/4200) – I mentioned LeMahieu above, but if we are fishing for home runs, Ian Desmond is someone we can look to. Walker is definitely an erratic pitcher, so it could happen tonight.

Giancarlo Stanton (8000/3800/4200) – Matt Harvey is getting hit really, really hard by righties, and this is the wrong righty to go up against. Stanton is always a threat to go deep.

Randal Grichuk (6800/2900/3500) – Grichuk has been pretty solid in the Atlanta series so far, so why not throw him out there today? He’s affordable and he definitely has some upside against R.A. Dickey.

Ezequiel Carrera (5200/2600/2600) – If Carrera is in the lineup, I like him a lot. Any exposure to cheap bats on a Coors night is a great thing, so Carrera is an excellent option to get us there.

Slate Strategy

This is definitely shaping up to be an interesting slate. The pitching is kind of all over the place outside of Chris Sale, and is going to make things really interesting for tournaments today.

Speaking of Sale, I think I may end up across the board ownership of him. Especially with Brian Dozier questionable, that lineup could end up looking pretty ragged and Sale could end up with another dominating performance. The cheap pitching options are uninspiring, but we’ll get something figured out by the time we have to set lineups.

On one pitcher sites, this isn’t a huge deal, but it is on two pitcher sites. Sale and Quintana give you roughly $3,500 on each remaining position, while Sale and Roark allow $3,600. It’s possible that further research opens up a cheaper option.

On the hitting side, there are a lot of options, including Coors, to choose from. I am seeing the Red Sox as a sneaky stack against a pitcher who looks better than he probably is.

Top Stacks

Boston Red Sox [Bogaerts/Benintendi/Betts/Moreland]

Toronto Blue Jays [Carrera/Smoak/Morales/Pillar]

 

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