MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 5/15/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Chase Anderson (13600/8500/6800) – With this being a much smaller slate than normal at just seven games, I am going to cut the picks down significantly as well. Actually, I am half tempted to just not play this slate, as it is gross, but I would still have to write about it, which means I have to research. If I research, I might as well play, know what I mean? Anyway, pitching REALLY sucks tonight, and we have some tough choices to make. I’ll take a risk with Chase Anderson against a team like the Padres in that cavernous stadium. They strikeout a lot [Dylan Covey looked like Nolan Ryan, just sayin’…] and thus we find Anderson on our list.

Luis Perdomo (13200/6600/6600) – On the flip side of things, we know the Brewers can be taken down with a lot of strikeouts as well. PetCo isn’t as bad for lefties as righties, and with a lot of their star power on that side of the plate [Thames, Villar, Shaw], it could be a trap. Fortunately, Perdomo is an excellent ground ball pitcher, and that negates a lot of the potential for a huge night on offense for the Brew Crew. Like I said, this isn’t a great night for pitching, but we can make it work for us!

CATCHER

Brian McCann (6400/2900/3200) – McCann gets a really nice matchup tonight against Dan Straily who just hasn’t been on point against left-handed bats this year. The fly ball rate and hard hit percentage are up there, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see McCann get ahold of one tonight.

FIRST BASE

Danny Valencia (6400/3600/3300) – Valencia almost lost his job to Dan Vogelbach earlier this year, and while his play still isn’t sharp, he is someone I don’t mind in tournaments against lefties. Sean Manaea is still having issues with right-handed bats, and we know Valencia has been trouble for lefties through his career.

SECOND BASE

Jonathan Villar (8800/3500/4500) – I probably won’t have much exposure to the Brewers tonight, as I think the chances of them smashing Perdomo aren’t great, but I do like Villar. The ability to get on base and still is something I could see Perdomo struggling with, so I want to have some shares of Villar.

THIRD BASE

Jake Lamb (9200/3500/4700) – Zack Wheeler is coming off his best game of the year, but I’m not ready to anoint him a good pitcher yet. We know the potency of this Arizona team, and a guy like Jake Lamb could be trouble for Wheeler tonight.

SHORTSTOP

Tim Anderson (6600/2500/3400) – Jesse Chavez has actually struggled quite a bit with right-handers this year, with above 40% in the fly ball and hard hit category. Even though Anderson is off to a slow start, he’s still got the ability to come through with a big game here and there.

OUTFIELD

Mike Trout (10500/5400/5400) – There is no way Mike Pelfrey is a good pitcher, and there is no way I will have no shares of Trout tonight. We aren’t spending on pitching, so why Trout wouldn’t be in most of our lineups is beyond me. I’m all aboard today.

Jose Bautista (8700/4000/4400) – Jose Bautista hits home runs now. That’s a great thing. Bartolo Colon is not a good pitcher. Do you see where I am going with this? I am going to ride the Bautista hot streak until the breaks fall off.

Nelson Cruz (8700/4900/4500) – Cruz against a lefty has been a thing in DFS for as long as I can remember. There is always a good chance Cruz will take them deep, and even though he’s expensive, he’ll be near the top of my player pool tonight.

 

 

Slate Strategy

It’s pretty clear that you can do just about anything you want on this slate. Neither site really priced players too far out of control to make sure things stayed within boundaries, so you will see a lot of stacked lineups tonight.

The two pitchers I really like are below $7k. That gives me over $4,500 at each position to spend. I can basically play everyone that I want. While I won’t have across the board ownership of Perdomo or Anderson, I will have some higher percentage shares. I would definitely spend more time analyzing hitting than pitching, though.

I can see there being a case to lock Mike Trout in. Doing that on DraftKings with the above mentioned pitchers allows for just under $4,500 per player. That will get you just about where you need to go.

This is actually a rare slate where the vast majority of the games are on the west coast, so that’s interesting. I’m actually not a huge fan of the MIL/SD or LOS/SF games, which really breaks my exposure down to just 5/7 games.

This should be really interesting.

Top Stacks

Seattle Mariners [Cruz/Valencia/Segura/Dyson]

Toronto Blue Jays [Bautista/Pillar/Carrera/Morales]

 

 

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