MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 5/12/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Rick Porcello (18800/9500/9700) – Porcello might not be in Cy Young form, but he isn’t a bad pitcher either. He’s actually been fairly solid, and he’ll be taking on a Tampa Bay Rays team that we know is capable of giving up big games to pitching. They can also work over a pitcher really well too, so there is definitely some risk here. He isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, either, but this team is.

Chris Tillman (17400/8300/8900) – Tillman has only pitched one game thus far this year, but he looked good. The second one will be against Kansas City, and we know they are not exactly a top tier offense at this point. I don’t mind going this route, as his price is fairly reasonable.

Miguel Gonzalez (15600/7400/8000) – Overall on the year, Gonzalez is a decent pitcher, so gets an offense in the Padres that isn’t exactly a great offense. These are Major League hitters, though, so they will have some nights where they really disappoint us. You can’t necessarily play it safe thinking that way, and I’m much more inclined to use Gonzalez tonight in hopes that he comes through with a game that pays off big time.

CATCHER

Buster Posey (7200/4100/3700) – What’s not to like about Posey? He’s having a great year, and he’s in a great spot tonight against Scott Feldman. With Coors on the slate, Posey always ends up a little lower owned, so there is some nice upside to him here.

Sandy Leon (6400/2600/3300) – Leon is the poster child of a tournament play. He’s been so hit or miss all year, but this is a nice matchup for him against Alex Cobb, who actually does struggle with lefty bats. I’ll take some exposure to him tonight.

FIRST BASE

Ryan Zimmerman (9600/4100/4900) – Nick Pivetta has only pitched two games, but he is getting hit a lot by righties. Ryan Zimmerman has really come around a lot this year, and this makes a great opportunity to use him. You can’t read too much into Pivetta’s numbers, but 50+% hard hit rate is never a good thing.

Yonder Alonso (7500/3600/3800) – It’s amazing how much Yonder Alonso has changed this year. His new swing is leading to a lot more fly balls, which are obviously turning into home runs. That’s a great thing. His price is rising, but he’s still worth a look against Andrew Cashner tonight.

SECOND BASE

Cesar Hernandez (7200/3500/3600) – Tanner Roark is a solid pitcher, but he is no exempt to getting lit up. While I don’t necessarily think that is what is going to happen tonight, I do think we could be in a situation where one or two bats could work out. Hernandez is a nice option that I don’t mind in any format.

Brad Miller (7600/3000/4000) – Brad Miller looks awful so far this year, but that doesn’t mean it will last. What better way to turn things around than the reigning Cy Young winner in Rick Porcello. I won’t have a ton of exposure, but things have been looking slightly better for Miller, so he’s worth some exposure.

THIRD BASE

Yunel Escobar (6900/3400/3500) – Jordan Zimmerman has been pretty bad this year. He’s getting his a lot, giving up fly balls and giving up hard contact. We don’t typically think of Escobar as a home run hitter, but he’s gone there three times in four games. Even if he doesn’t go deep, he could still have a nice game.

Anthony Rendon (7600/3500/4000) – Like I said with Zimmerman, Rendon is in a great spot tonight. Pivetta is giving up quite a few home runs already to righties already this year. Rendon can take a pitcher deep, and he’s usually one of the lesser used members of the Nationals.

SHORTSTOP

Corey Seager (10800/4300/5500) – Seager might have had some good baseball games, but quite frankly, he’s sucked when it comes to daily fantasy. One would believe that he should be able to turn things around sooner than later, and today brings a great opportunity against Tyler Chatwood in Coors.

Aldedmys Diaz (8400/3100/4300) – Eddie Butler is getting the start for the Cubs, as they search for someone competent at the pitching position. Diaz, much like Seager, hasn’t been great, but this is too good of an opportunity to pass up. I’ll take some ownership in this matchup no questions asked.

OUTFIELD

Mike Trout (10400/5000/5300) – Mike Trout at home against a low end righty at this point in his career is about as close to a lock as it gets. It does get better, as Coors could actually lower his ownership. I have no issues buying into him tonight, and he should make a lot of my lineups.

Jay Bruce (8800/4100/4600) – Matt Garza hasn’t fared well in the 2017 season, and things could get worse for him tonight. He’s struggled against lefties to the tune of a .442 wOBA. While the fly ball percentage isn’y huge, the hard contact is, and that could be a problem. Bruce makes a nice play tonight.

Michael Conforto (8400/4200/4300) – If Bruce makes a nice play, we might as well throw Conforto in there as well. He’s been nice to start off the year, and is in just as strong of a position as Bruce, except he gets to lead things off. I’ll take a lot of him tonight.

Corey Dickerson (7800/3400/3900) – Porcello is giving up over 50% fly balls and over 40% hard contact to lefties. That’s not a great combination. I wouldn’t run with Dickerson in cash games, but he certainly makes sense in tournaments tonight.

Ben Gamel (7600/3400/3800) – I’m not sure if Joe Biagini will pan out, but he was poised to be a good pitcher. As he’s getting his feet wet, I don’t feel bad about taking some shots against him. Gamel has produced at least reasonably well so far, so why not keep things going tonight?

Slate Strategy

With so many games on the slate, there are quite a few pitching options to choose from. I know Clayton Kershaw is on the mound, so Colorado for me is going to be an avoid situation. I won’t have much Kershaw, but I also won’t take many Rockies. IF, and i mean IF, Kershaw rolls, he goes deep into games, so the hope of getting to the bullpen might be destroyed.

Hey, maybe the Dodgers can show up tonight. That would be nice. It’s 10-2 right now, so this statement could be obsolete by this morning, but they sure didn’t show up to play. I am absolutely fine with going back tonight though.

Outside of Coors, there are plus situations across the board, from Chase to Miller to Yankee Stadium and more. Again, with this many games on the slate, Coors isn’t an absolute necessity. The odds are that there will be a higher scoring team elsewhere. The odds are also strong that individual players could end up better than stacks.

 

Top Stacks

New York Mets [Bruce/Conforto/Granderson/Rivera]

Los Angeles Angels [Trout/Escobar/Simmons/Pujols]

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