MLB DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings – 4/29/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s MLB Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Prices listed are FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

PITCHERS

Yu Darvish (23200/10300/11900) – Honestly, this isn’t exactly the best slate as far as pitching goes, but you probably knew that once you saw who was on the mound. Darvish is the highest quality pitcher, despite the fact he has been horribly inconsistent to start the year. The park ins’t great to boot, but the Angels lineup isn’t exactly overly threatening. I’ll take some shares of him tonight, because he’s the one I feel like I can at least somewhat trust.

Matt Cain (15300/8200/7700) – We’ve talked a lot about Cain thus far this year, and most of the time we’ve talked about how bad he is. Most of the time, we are wrong. He’s been decent this year, and the Padres aren’t exactly a scary offense. The price, at least on FanDuel, is more than I’d like to spend, but he’s a good option in tournaments because he’s got enough upside to take down a tournament.

Brandon McCarthy (17400/8000/8900) – McCarthy has one of the higher K/9’s on the slate tonight [Dan Straily is the highest…wow] and he gets a good matchup against a Phillies team that still isn’t great. They can cobble together some good games, but I don’t mind taking the discount here and stacking my lineups with hitters once again tonight.

CATCHER

Robinson Chirinos(6000/2600/3000) – Jesse Chavez has come through for me a couple of times, but this is a time I am not afraid to back off of him. He’s giving up a .414 wOBA, 37.8% FB rate, 28.6% HR/FB rate and 43.2% hard hit rate. That means he can certainly end up giving up some big games here, and I do not mind whatsoever rocking Chirinos in some of my lineups tonight.

FIRST BASE

Brandon Belt (7200/3200/3700) – I really wanted to tap a couple of different lefties from the Giants today against Jhoulys Chacin… except they all suck. Well, except Belt, and he’s even someone I’m not willing to bite on in cash games, so it’ll be tournament only exposure for me. A .375 wOBA and 34.8% hard hit rate show that damage can be done to him, and Belt could be the one to deliver it.

SECOND BASE

Jonathan Villar (8800/3400/4500) – Jaime Garcia is always one of my favorites to pick on, and tonight will be no different. Villar looks to have the bat waking up, and last year, his damage was being done from the right hand side of the plate. We’ll see him priced much higher than this through the year, so it feels like a discount.

THIRD BASE

Mike Moustakas (6000/3300/3100) – For the second straight night, Mike Moustakas comes in as one of our favorite plays. The upside for him in pretty nice against Phil Hughes. A 38.2% fly ball rate and 52.9% hard hit rate to left handed bats isn’t a good thing for him, and a guy like Moustakas who can hit well finds himself in a really nice position tonight.

SHORTSTOP

Chris Owings (8100/3500/4200) – How good is Chris Owings right now? Seriously, he’s been absolutely awesome on his home turf, and I can’t see a reason why things would be any different tonight. Tyler Anderson is giving up a high fly ball rate as well as a ton of hard contact, so we might see another big Chris Owings game.

OUTFIELD

Khris Davis (7600/3600/4000) – I feel like I just threw down a bunch of the same guys from yesterday, but that’s how the matchups played out. Davis has a ton of power upside, and Joe Musgrove has been giving up an absolute ton of contact to that side of the plate. He’s worth a look in tournaments for sure.

Yasmany Tomas (8000/3600/4100) – Again Tomas makes this list with a matchup against an average to poor left-handed pitcher. The Diamondbacks have been one of the best, if not the best, offense as of late, and I could see this being a situation where the Diamondbacks go off once again.

Delino DeShields (6600/2500/3400) – It’s always tough to say how teams will play things, but with Chavez actually giving up so much contact to righties, it wouldn’t shock me to see DeShields get into the lineup tonight. He’s a cheap bat, on a day where maybe it isn’t exactly needed as much, but it never hurts to put another bigger bat out there.

 

Slate Strategy

Really tough slate for pitching tonight, to say the least. Darvish has been disappointing overall, so it’s not just as easy as locking him in and moving on. It’s tough when you are considering options like Matt Cain and Brandon McCarthy. One guy I overlooked because of the matchup and park is Zack Greinke. Maybe I’m the only one here, but I still think he’s a good pitcher, and even though the circumstances stink [matchup/park], he’s still a guy I have no problems with in tournaments.

In terms of hitting, there aren’t a ton of situations I am in love in either. San Francisco is injured so badly, that they can’t take advantage of a good matchup in my opinion. Atlanta and Milwaukee could be a nice place to look to be honest, so I don’t mind tossing in some bats from that game. Ultimately, the Diamondbacks, as usual, look to be a top offense to look to.

Top Stacks

Arizona Diamondbacks [Goldschmidt/Pollock/Owings/Lamb/Peralta]

Milwaukee Brewers [Thames/Braun/Villar/Perez]

 

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