MLB DFS PICKS – 8/17/16
Welcome to our MLB Daily Fantasy Breakdown! Today, we have a nice slate of Wednesday baseball.
As usual on Wednesdays, we’ll have our action split into two slates. There are definitely some pretty interesting options, especially for tournaments today, so that is likely to be where most of my action ends up. I wish I can say I’m able to actually watch a lot of the day games, but with NFL and CFB almost here, and NHL and NBA not too far behind, I’m mostly busy. I’m excited to see the MLB season wind down, as it has been a good one, but it is my least favorite sport. Until then, we’ll keep grinding away and making money! Let’s make tonight a good one, as there are a number of great contests that are being offered on FanDuel. If you don’t have an account, use our link to sign up for FanDuel.
Today, we will break everything down position by position. If you like what you see, don’t hesitate to follow us on Twitter @researchandwin and let us know we helped you or yell at us for leading you down the wrong path. Also, make sure to check out our baseball research portal by clicking on this sentence.
With that out of the way, let’s move on to the picks:
YU DARVISH – Darvish remains basically the most consistent option in all of baseball. His floor is very, very good, but his ceiling isn’t exactly as high as we’d like it to be. In cash games, he is an easy plug and play. In tournaments, I am still a little concerned about the fact that he hasn’t gone past 45 points yet this year. Oakland isn’t a team I love to target, but at the same time, Darvish is one of the best in the game and can have a good night against absolutely anyone. He’s my across the board cash game play, but I’ll likely have limited ownership of him in tournaments.
CHRIS ARCHER – Archer is easily the highest ceiling pitcher of the night. He has very good strikeout stuff, and gets to take on one of the worst offenses in all of baseball in the San Diego Padres in his home park. The problem is that Archer just randomly has outings where he looks like he’s a deer in headlights. We’d like to think that wouldn’t happen against the Padres, but there is not guarantee that is the case. I wouldn’t use him in cash games with Darvish on the hill, but he’s my top tournament pitcher.
HOMER BAILEY – Bailey has pitched three games so far. The outcomes of those games have been 41, 6 and 63. He definitely has some pretty serious upside, and the Marlins are definitely down a notch with Giancarlo Stanton hitting the DL. They still have enough on their side that will make things tough on Bailey, but I think he makes a nice, cheaper tournament option with some serious upside. If you want to save cash and build teams with bigger bats, he’s your guy.
WELLINGTON CASTILLO – Castillo was just activated from a short-term DL, and started things out with a bang. This year isn’t what he expected it to be, but it is definitely better than it started for Beef Wellington. Jonathan Niese wasn’t great in Pittsburgh, and I doubt things are going to change for him in Chase Field. Castillo makes an excellent play tonight.
YASMANI GRANDAL – Grandal is one of the catchers with the highest upside. There have been many 25+ point performances from him on the year, and tonight against Jake Thompson could see him add to that list. I love this situation for him, and he is priced fairly for what he brings to the table tonight.
MIKE NAPOLI – Napoli has been very good this year, and is soon to cross over the 30 home run mark, if it hasn’t already happened by this writing. Anthony Ranaudo is in for a world of hurt against the Tribe, who is one of the best offenses in all of baseball. He isn’t as expensive as he should be, and will make it into a lot of my lineups tonight.
ANTHONY RIZZO – Jimmy Nelson just has not been very good at all, and running into a tough Cubs offense is very much unlikely to make it any better. Rizzo has tournament winning upside in a matchup like this. He isn’t even the most expensive option at the position, and he makes a fine play in both formats.
JEAN SEGURA – For what it is worth, most, if not all, of the Diamondbacks righties are going to be in play tonight against Jon Niese. Segura can contribute in so many different ways, from hitting with a little power and stealing bases. I expect Arizona to be able to put some runs on the board, and Segura should be a big part of that.
JACE PETERSON – Peterson is one of those guys that pretty consistently gets overlooked in DFS because of the fact that he plays for the Braves and it isn’t the best player at the position either. Fortunately, we only need to be concerned about his performance on one night. Kyle Gibson could find himself in a tough spot against a few Braves bats, and Peterson is my favorite.
ADRIAN BELTRE – Beltre has been pretty good in recent history, and he gets a very nice matchup tonight against Sean Manaea. Father time isn’t flowing Beltre down much at all, and he is priced totally reasonably for what his upside is in this contest. He is by far my favorite play at the position tonight.
JORGE POLANCO – Polanco had a pretty nice run after Eduardo Nunez got traded to the Giants, but since that run, he has cooled down considerably. Nonetheless, he gets a very good matchup tonight against Mike Foltynewicz, who has been pretty poor against hitters on the left side of the plate. We know Polanco can do some damage, and he makes for what should be a low owned option at the position.
COREY SEAGER – Seager is no stranger to our daily fantasy breakdown, and a matchup against Jake Thompson isn’t going to take him off our list. Seager is just an amazing ball player and hitter, and this is yet another excellent opportunity for him to prove that. He’s a double-dong waiting to happen, but can produce big outings without home runs.
CHRIS OWINGS – I had no intentions of havings Owings here, but he’s priced too cheap for this matchup and could still go overlooked. In case you can’t tell, I am a big fan of the Diamondbacks today, and I might not even be done yet. Owings is better suited for tournament play because he can disappear, but he does have some upside at this price.
JOC PEDERSON – Pederson’s price has moved upward, and there no disputing it, as he has put together some very good outings in his last few games. I’ve already gone over Jake Thompson, but it is clear that our algorithm really likes the Dodger lefties tonight. I don’t mind a stack of all of these guys and Utley.
MATT JOYCE – Joyce is always a toss up to make the lineup, but if he does, this is an excellent situation against Matt Cain. We’ve seen Joyce really improve at the plate this year, and he is still a very good hitter against right-handed hitting. He’s going to be one of my favorite tournament plays if he is in the lineup tonight.
YASMANY TOMAS – I knew I had one more Diamonback to go! Basically, the script for tonight appears to be play Diamondbacks and Dodgers. You can never go wrong with Double D’s! See what I did there? Anyway, Tomas is an excellent power hitter, and is very cheap on the night. He is probably my favorite play on the team.
STEVE PEARCE – Pearce is kind of the ultimate tournament play tonight, as he is taking on David Price, who has not been a stud pitcher this year, or at least what we though he would be. Pearce is a monster against lefties, posting an ISO over .300 which is pretty considerable. He’s priced right, and I can definitely see him taking Price out of the park tonight.
KOLE CALHOUN – Calhoun makes the breakdown for two days in a row, which is very uncommon. It’s all about matchup, and I don’t think Cody Martin is going to be able to handle him. His price went up a little bit, but there is enough value that I think you’ll be able to fit him in your lineup tonight.