Welcome to our MLB Daily Fantasy Breakdown! Today, we have a nice slate of Tuesday baseball.
I feel back, afresh and anew, after taking the long weekend off. I normally won’t do that, and I probably won’t do it the rest of the year, but it did feel good. Tonight’s slate is going to be an interesting one, as I think one popular pitcher will carry some risk, but I’m not quite sure if it will be enough to warrant not playing him, at least in cash games. Let’s make tonight a good one, as there are a number of great contests that are being offered on FanDuel. If you don’t have an account, sign up for one here.
Today, we will break everything down position by position. If you like what you see, don’t hesitate to follow us on Twitter @researchandwin and let us know we helped you or yell at us for leading you down the wrong path.
With that out of the way, let’s move on to the picks:
MADISON BUMGARNER – At first, I was all in on Madison Bumgarner. Then, I looked at the game logs, and I was all out. Then, I sat down and settled myself down, and realized I should be back to close to all in. Here are the fantasy point outputs for Bumgarner in his last few meetings with the Rockies in San Francisco: 58/55/78/36/39. Not too shabby, right? He isn’t Kershaw expensive, so you can still build a reasonable team around him, and his realistic range in this matchup is probably 40-60. The Rockies looked rough in Los Angeles, and aren’t exactly tearing Jake Peavy apart right now [it’s the third inning as I am writing this]. At this point, he is a guy I will probably put in all my cash games, but may have less than normal ownership in tournaments. He only has one game where he gave up no runs, and the rest were either 2 or 4. Several of the Rockies bats have done reasonable well against him, including Gonzalez and Blackmon, so I think this could be a situation where he ends up giving up 3 runs but still getting the win. I think you could find better points per dollars plays tonight.
CARLOS CARRASCO – I am really tempted to use Carrasco in my cash games tonight, but I am always weary of that Detroit offense. Still, I remember Jhoulys Chacin completely shutting them down on Memorial Day. That is something no one should ever forget. I think that if Carrasco has his stuff, it is going to be very difficult for anyone to get to him. No, he is not likely to have 14 strikeouts again, but this is always the team that Scherzer racked 20 up on earlier this year. He is by far my favorite tournament option, and I may even end up having him in my cash games by time it is all said and done.
MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ – Yes, I am serious. First of all, it’s a price thing. I tend to try to find a guy under $6.5k every night to try to build some “big bat” lineups. A lot of the times it doesn’t work out extremely well. Sometimes, I end up seeing things right and the cheap pitcher ended up with 40 points and the bats go off. I honestly just don’t like picking on teams. I think it is kind of a silly idea. I look for specific matchups that we can exploit, and this is one. He will give up some runs [I think Howard, Odubel or Blanco will hit a home run], but I think that the Braves can get to Eflin, and if they do, Folty can end up with those very important 12 points.
WELLINGTON CASTILLO – Is his bat finally waking up? Two homeruns in three games after being invisible for most of May and June certainly gives me hope. Despite having a really poor run over those two months, he is still hitting left-handed pitching well, and he gets a poor lefty tonight in Christian Friedrich. I would expect for Arizona to score some runs, and there is a good chance Castillo can be a part of it.
SANDY LEON – Leon is criminally underpriced at just $2.5k. He is the far better hitter right now between he and Christian Vasquez, so I’m hoping the Red Sox do the right thing and put him in the lineup tonight. A.J. Griffin may be pitching well this year, but I’m going to go with Leon on the left side of the plate with the short right field porch tonight.
FREDDIE FREEMAN – I don’t know why I am locked in on Freeman tonight, but I absolutely am. Eflin hasn’t been horrible against left-handed hitters this year, but I still don’t think he is going to out pitch Freeman. I don’t know that I’ve had Freeman in more than a handful of lineups all year, but that is almost certainly going to change tonight. He is priced higher than I’d like to play, but he is still someone I want to have ownership of tonight.
DAE-HO LEE – Lee is still under $3k, and as long as he is, I will want to have some piece of him in tournaments. Dallas Keuchel is still a good pitcher, but I think he will have his hands full with this Mariners lineup, and one of these lefty-killers is going to knock one out tonight. Lee will definitely be low owned and makes for a great tournament play tonight.
BRIAN DOZIER – This is a must play for me. He might not end up being the top scoring at the position tonight, but his price is ridiculous considering the talent level and the matchup. Sean Manaea is still a developing pitcher, but Dozier is a developed hitter. He is an easy cash game plug and play, and will be in a lot of my tournament lineups as well.
DEVON TRAVIS – Travis will be one of my favorite tournament options tonight. While Young typically struggles with lefties more than righties, he can still be hand from the right side of the plate. Travis actually hits righties better anyway, and tonight provides a major opportunity for him to have a big night at low ownership. His price is very attractive and I will have a good amount of him in my tournament lineups.
DANNY VALENCIA – I feel like this edition is the righty vs. lefty edition, but here we are again with another righty vs. lefty matchup. Valencia has cooled down after having a really strong month of June, but the talent is still there. Tommy Milone is a pitcher we should look to attack tonight, and Valencia is a great way to do it.
EVAN LONGORIA – Longoria is a bit of an expensive play at the position, but he’s in a great matchup against a diminished Tim Lincecum. He will be another pitcher I look to attack tonight with these Tampa bats, and, even though he hasn’t exactly been on fire lately, should find success in this matchup tonight.
COREY SEAGER– Seager is another guy who is in a great spot today against Chris Tillman. Seager has a tremendous amount of power, and Tillman is starting to slip back to his old form, in which he gives up homeruns. I am hoping for one of those classic [can you say classic if he’s only been playing this long?] Seager double dong nights en route to making us tons of money.
MARCUS SEMIEN – Semien is tournament only for me, as I could see him striking out at each at bat. He can be undisciplined at times, and his batting average is evidence of that. Still, I do believe Milone to be a bottom tier pitcher and I think he could have a good game, with an extra base hit and a run batted in.
MICHAEL SAUNDERS – I wrote up Travis as a great tournament option in this game, but I think Saunders is definitely the guy I want to have in my cash games. I’ll work to get a few of the lefties in my lineup tonight, but Saunders carries that power upside we want. His price is fair enough that you can fit him with whoever you want at pitcher and still have flexibility. He is one of my favorite plays of the day.
YOENIS CESPEDES– Expect pretty high ownership for Cespedes tomorrow on FanDuel as his price is absurdly low given the matchup. $3.2k is just laughable going against a pitcher who struggles with giving up home runs. I might have Yoenis in all my cash game and tournament lineups tomorrow.
MIGUEL SANO – Sano is an excellent play tonight at just $2.8k. Sean Manaea is no threat at all, and I think there is a great chance that he goes yard tonight. I will pay that amount everyday of the week for my shot at a huge game. I expect him to be popular as well.
ODUBEL HERRERA – Herrera has seen his price jump to $3.7k but is still a great play tonight against Foltynewicz. I think I am likely going to go elsewhere in my cash games, and so will many others, but that makes him an excellent target in tournaments. I think Folty is going to have a good game, but I think Odubel will give him trouble.
MARCELL OZUNA – Ozuna is an excellent tournament play tonight at just $2.6k. He has been killing left-handers all year, and there is no reason why he shouldn’t continue tonight. Matz is a good pitcher, but he has struggled in his last several games. He’s had some nice ones, but he’s also left some pitches over the plate. If he does that with Ozuna, we’ll never see the ball again.