Welcome to our MLB Daily Fantasy Breakdown! Today, we have a nice slate of Monday baseball.
So, while it has some nice offensive possibilities, the pitching possibilities aren’t exactly the greatest. It always seems like days after nice pitching choices, we get saddled with some difficult choices. I’ll keep the format the same as yesterday, and highlight pitchers within a price range that I would use and others I would stay away from.
Today, we will break everything down position by position. If you like what you see, don’t hesitate to follow us on Twitter @researchandwin and let us know we helped you or yell at us for leading you down the wrong path.
With that out of the way, let’s move on to the picks:
This is a slate that actually has some pretty good pitching on it, so I will break this down a little different today:
9.1k and over – Only three pitchers qualify for this category today, so you kind of see exactly what you’re working with here. I wouldn’t use Tanaka, as he doesn’t offer enough upside in the matchup. Matz normally isn’t a guy I’d want to take against a team like Pittsburgh that hits righties well, but they are dealing with some injuries, and because of this, he’s on my radar. Jon Lester is easily the top option on the day, and will probably end up in most players cash lineups, and with good reason.
7.1k – 9k – Chris Archer always makes a nice tournament pitcher, and the Diamondbacks just struck out like 18 times yesterday. I just don’t like the stadium and probably will have very low ownership of him. Michael Fulmer is interesting, as Toronto can strikeout a bit if they aren’t making hard contact with the ball. Matt Shoemaker has nice upside against a Yankees team that isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. Trevor Bauer should be mentioned if only out of the sheer fact that his offense could light Paxton up pretty well. He does have some upside too, but he just isn’t my favorite and this game could yield a high total. Surprisingly, I don’t mind Jon Niese against a beat up Mets squad. I would only have tournament exposure to him, but he could end up surprising some people.
Under 7k – This tier definitely has some pitchers I will look to pick on. First and foremost: Robbie Ray. Evan Longoria has been rolling and this matchup seems to be a great opportunity for him. Mike Bolsinger against the Rockies is another guy I will target somewhat. The Royals are in a good spot against Mike Wright. Christian Friedrich… isn’t he interesting? What do we know? He isn’t a high strikeout pitcher. But he isn’t a pitcher I can see getting blown up. Most important, he is a pitcher that is under 6k. It isn’t very often that you are able to select a pitcher that has a reasonable matchup [Atlanta] in a pitchers park. If you are the type who likes to zig when others zag, even in in cash games [not naming any names, but me], and you think the top bats are how you have to go tonight, here is your guy.
YAN GOMES – Yan Gomes is the easy cash game play today against a poor lefty, an atmosphere in which he should strive. The Indians should be one of the top performing offenses on the night, and I love Gomes at his price.
CHRIS HERMANN – If you want to count on Gomes as the cash game play at the position, I think a common sense tournament play will be Hermann. His price dropped $600 due to inactivity, but he came off a successful game yesterday which saw him collect three hits and cross the plate, against a platoon headlined by Jake Arrieta. Chris Archer COULD shut this offense down… or he could give up 8 runs. I’m leaning toward option B tonight.
MIKE NAPOLI– Mike Napoli REALLY likes to play in Cleveland apparently. The Tribe has been on a pretty extensive home stand, and in his last ten games, Napoli has hit double digit points 9(!) times, with his lowest output in those games being 15.7(!). These are numbers someone who is 4.5k should look like. This matchup is another good one, and Napoli makes a nice cash game play tonight.
DAE-HO LEE – Lee hits right handed pitching very well, and even though Bauer doesn’t necessarily profile as a big time fly ball pitcher with a high HR/FB%, it does line up well for Lee. He should only be considered in tournaments, but I expect him to be low owned again tonight, and one of these nights he is going to come through.
JURICKSON PROFAR – Profar has been outstanding since his most recent call-up to the majors, and as long as he is under 3k and batting leadoff, there is no way I’m going to go anywhere else. He may not have the upside of some others, but he’s had a great deal of consistency. Mike Fiers should be picked on in this one, and I like several of the Rangers tonight, starting with Profar.
BEN ZOBRIST – Zobrist actually has a slightly better matchup than Profar, but when I’m looking at my cash games, I will first look at matchup and then use recent performance as my tie breaker. That means I will probably end up with more Zobrist in tournaments, as he has a much higher ceiling and in a better situation.
EVAN LONGORIA – As mentioned above, Robbie Ray should be eaten alive in this game by the hot swinging bats of the Rays. Longoria in particular has been swinging a very hot stick, hitting five homeruns in the last 4 games. You want to say to yourself that the pace cannot continue, but then he goes into a hitters park in Arizona and you have to consider him. I’m expecting a huge game, home runs or not.
NOLAN ARENADO – Nolan can make no noise sometimes, and that’s why we have to look at him as a tournament only option. Mike Bolsinger has actually been a reverse splits pitcher on the year, and Nolan has hit righties well. I smell yard tonight for Nolan, and you could possibly get him with less ownership than normal.
JAVIER BAEZ – Baez has been mashing lefties, and actually saw his price drop from Sunday to Monday. I’ll gladly take that $100 savings for a guy in a great matchup that could bring a high level of value to your lineups. He is a great option in both cash and tournaments.
CARLOS CORREA – Correa makes the tournamPent section because Colby Lewis has not been a bad pitcher to start the year. Yes, that feels weird to say. We would expect that a regression would take place some time soon, and I am betting that it happens tonight against the hot bats of the Astros. Correa has finally found his swing after a bit of a slump in May, and should be considered in both formats tonight.
STEVE PEARCE– Pearce has slowed down considerably from his torrid pace at the beginning of May, but this is still too good of a matchup to pass up. Pearce should have his way with Ray and add to the list of Rays who will have big nights.
CAMERON MAYBIN – Maybin has showed no signs of slowing down, and I just don’t see JA Happ to be the one to stop him. He makes an excellent cash game play, but ultimately his ceiling is limited, as he doesn’t have a high probability of hitting two home runs in a game.
JOSE BAUTISTA – Fulmer has actually struggled with righties to start his MLB career, and he could run into a big problem here, with the majority of the big Blue Jays bats standing on the right side of the plate. I much prefer Bautista in tournaments than cash games, because Fulmer is good enough to give them trouble tonight.
IAN DESMOND – Desmond makes a great play tonight, batting out of the two spot. This Texas team vastly improved when Odor came back, as it allowed them to remove a stagnant Prince Fielder from the situation, and the team has been playing well. Desmond looks like a man on a mission, and I don’t see Mike Fiers putting a stop to him.
DEXTER FOWLER – The Cubs should be another stackable team against a poor pitcher in Adam Morgan. Fowler has both power and speed, and if you’ve read my articles before, you’ll find that I love finding guys with both of those things. If he doesn’t have the power going, he is a good candidate to snap a bag. This is the type of combo that makes him lethal in DFS.