Welcome to our MLB Daily Fantasy Breakdown! Today, we have a nice slate of Friday night baseball.
I am going to stick with the game by game breakdowns today, as I think it worked well yesterday. If you like what you see, don’t hesitate to follow us on Twitter @researchandwin and let us know we helped you or yell at us for leading you down the wrong path.
With that out of the way, let’s move on to the picks:
OAKLAND ATHLETICS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Vegas has the total of this game as 8, with Oakland as a very slight favorite. Oakland is putting Rich Hill on the mound, and even though he is favored, I am staying away from him tonight. Also, the weather doesn’t look good, and the wind is blowing out to right. If anything jumps off the page in terms of Baltimore bats, it would be the Trumbo and Reimold. Rickard has slowed down and Jones is ice cold. He would make for a decent tournament play though due to his laughable price.
On the other side of the ball, we have a team with a fair amount of lefties against a righty that can be taken advantage of. Here’s the thing: Josh Reddick is the only player on the team with a wOba against righties over .330. I like him for cash games at a reasonable salary in a good park. There are some additional tournament options here as well.
CASH PLAYS: Reddick
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Vogt, Coghlan, Burns, K. Davis, Rickard, Jones, Trumbo, Reimold, Machado
BOSTON RED SOX @ NEW YORK YANKEES
This is expected to be a lower scoring game at 7.5 total and the Yankees as a slight favorite. I like Porcello in tournaments only, because he has pitched well, but he is pitching in a ball park that favors lefties and that is the vast majority of what the Yankees bring to the table. All the lefties are in play, but my favorite are McCann and Gardner, if he plays. I think they are both fair cash game plays.
Michael Pineda is on the mound, and he is just not good this year. He has been giving it up to both sides of the plate, so there are plentiful options here for both cash games and tournaments. I think even though they are expected to lose, I actually like a Red Sox stack tonight.
CASH PLAYS: McCann, Gardner, Pedroia, Ortiz, Bogaerts, Shaw, Bradley
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Ellsbury, Beltran, Teixeira, Betts, Ramirez, Holt
LOS ANGELES DODGERS @ TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Vegas has this game set at a 8 total with the Blue Jays as a reasonable favorite. I love Kenta Maeda, but I prefer him in LA than in Toronto. I am not crazy about going overboard with the Blue Jays bats, but I think their top four need to be rostered in tournaments in case they continue the run they started yesterday. I don’t see that happening, but I still want to have ownership of them.
I don’t really like the idea of playing Stroman in any format tonight. This LA team is full of lefties and I could see them easily taking advantage of Stroman this evening. I don’t like them in cash games, but I think there is merit in tournaments.
CASH PLAYS: none
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Utley, Seager, Gonzalez, Grandal, Pederson, Saunders, Donaldson, Bautista, Encarnacion
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ MIAMI MARLINS
Vegas sees this as being a very low scoring game with Miami as a reasonable favorite. I like Velasquez tonight in tournaments, as I do think he could shut this team down and rack up the K’s. I just don’t want to have a piece of him in cash though. There really two guys I’m considering in that. I think there are a few plays in here in tournaments for Miami tonight.
Wei-Yen Chen isn’t a bad pitcher, but he very much struggles with righties. It isn’t like the Phillies are a great offense, but they aren’t horrible either. I really like Maikel Franco today, and maybe a few others. Again, I don’t like anyone enough to make them cash game plays, but I would consider them in tournaments.
CASH PLAYS: none
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Herrera, Galvis, Franco, Yelich, Stanton, Bour, Dietrich
KANSAS CITY ROYALS @ CLEVELAND INDIANS
This is another game with a low total of 7, with the Indians being the favorites. My general take on this game is that I don’t really love the pitchers, and I don’t really like the hitters. I could see this being a low scoring game [with that being said it’ll probably be the highest]. I think both offenses are competent enough that it could make it tough on the pitchers to put together good outings. I would rather go other ways in this game. I do think there could be some tournament plays though.
CASH PLAYS: none
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Moustakas, Hosmer, Perez, Santana, Kipnis, Lindor, Brantley
TEXAS RANGERS @ DETROIT TIGERS
This is another pitching battle tonight. Vegas has the total at 8, with Detroit being the favorite. Cole Hamels hasn’t started the year well, but it isn’t all bad. I think he’s a tournament consideration here. I do think there are a few guys here I want to have some exposure to, in both cash in tournament for the Tigers, mostly Kinsler and J.D. Martinez.
On the flip side of the game, I think Jordan Zimmerman is a decent option, but I at the same time believe that he is due for some regression. I think the Rangers make for an interesting tournament play tonight, but I wouldn’t go too heavy on them
CASH PLAYS: Kinsler, Martinez
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Cabrera, Upton, Martinez, Castellanos, Odor, Mazara, Moreland, Hamels
MILWAUKEE BREWERS @ CINCINNATI REDS
Vegas has this game as a 8.5 points total, and I’m going to tell you right now, I will be absolutely shocked if it doesn’t hit 10 points. Cincinnati are the favorites here. I don’t see either pitcher getting a win, or doing anything worth rostering them. I think everyone on the Reds are playable, but the closer to the top of the order the better. Joey Votto is one of my favorite plays on the slate, and I love him in cash games.
On the Milwaukee side of things, I would look at the top six of the order. These guys are mostly reverse splits hitters, and absolutely mash right handers. I still like Villar and Nieuwenhuis even though they are lefties. This should really be a high scoring game, and you need to grab as much of it as you can.
CASH PLAYS: Villar, Braun, Lucroy, Cozart, Votto, Phillips, Bruce
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Carter, Presley, Nieuwenhuis, Hamilton, Suarez, Duvall
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ ATLANTA BRAVES
Vegas has the total for this game set at 7 with the Diamondbacks as heavy favorites. I agree with that. Much, if not all, of Greinke’s woes have come from pitching at home. He is not at home. I still maintain that the Braves are pesky, but I really like Greinke tonight. The only guys I will have pieces of from Atlanta are Markakis and Mallex Smith.
In terms of Diamondbacks, I think there are a few plays against young Aaron Blair. He will be good, just not yet. I would suggest Lamb being the premier play, with Peralta close behind. I like them both in cash. There are a variety of tournament plays here too, especially considering Goldschmidt’s recent price decrease.
CASH GAMES: Lamb, Peralta, Hermann
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Markakis, Smith, Goldschmidt, Segura, Drury, Greinke
SEATTLE MARINERS @ HOUSTON ASTROS
Vegas sees this as one of the highest scoring games of the night at 9, with Seattle being a small favorite. I like Walker tonight, but only in tournaments. The Astros top four can all be considered here, as well as Evan Gattis if he plays. I like them more as tournament options though.
I will have no exposure to Doug Fister, but I will absolutely have exposure to many, many Seattle bats. My favorites are Cano, Seager and Smith, but all the rest are absolutely options in tournaments.
CASH PLAYS: Cano, Seager, Smith
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Aoki, Cruz, Martin, Altuve, Springer, Correa, Rasmus, Gattis, Walker
MINNESOTA TWINS @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Vegas has a pretty high total for this game at 9, with Chicago being the favorites. Contrary to the last two games, I can see this game going under what the total is. Nolasco isn’t as bad as he seems by advanced statistics, so I am not really inclined to pick on him tonight. I think Abreu, Cabrera and Frazier could all be tournaments plays though.
I think Latos has pitched well this year, but I feel like it isn’t going to be long lived. I don’t absolutely love anyone from Minnesota tonight, but I will certainly have them in my tournament lineups.
CASH PLAYS: none
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Abreu, Frazier, Cabrera, Santana, Dozier, Sano, Park, Arcia
PITTSBURGH PIRATES @ ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
The Vegas total for this game is 7.5 with St. Louis as the favorites. I don’t like Liriano in any format tonight, but I do like several bats from his opponent. I think Diaz, Piscotty, Holliday and Grichuk are all good plays in tournaments and cash games this evening.
I like Carlos Martinez tonight in both formats. I think there are a few Pirates bats I would consider here in tournaments, but they are all guys hitting from the left side of the plate, ruling out Cutch and Marte.
CASH PLAYS: Martinez, Piscotty, Diaz, Holliday, Grichuk
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Jaso, Polanco, Joyce, Gyorko, Carpenter
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Vegas has this game set at 7.5 runs, with Tampa Bay being a favorite. I don’t like Chris Archer much this evening, but with his strikeout capabilities, I will have him in some tournament lineups. He has been pretty bad on the road this year, so I will target some of the Angels, mostly in tournaments tonight.
I don’t know a ton about Cory Rasmus, but I am not going to be heavily targeting against him with some better matchups tonight. I think there is a case to use some of the lefties in tournaments, but I am not in love with playing any Rays in cash games.
CASH PLAYS: Soto
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Archer, Forsythe, Longoria, Dickerson, Souza, Trout, Pjuols, Calhoun
COLORADO ROCKIES @ SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Vegas set the total for this game at 7 tonight with the Giants as heavy favorites. Chad Bettis is on the mound, which means the Giants should be in your lineup. There are a heavy amount of them that I like tonight in both cash and tournaments that I will highlight below. This is easily one of my favorite teams to stack tonight.
I don’t see the Rockies putting up an absurd number of runs tonight like they did last night. In fact, the only guy I am considering tonight is Nolan Arenado because he is Nolan Arenado and he does work.
CASH PLAYS: Bumgarner, Span, Posey, Belt, Pence, Crawford, Blanco
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Arenado
NEW YORK METS @ SAN DIEGO PADRES
Vegas sees this as the lowest total of the night at 6.5, with the Mets as heavy favorites. I would tend to agree with that assessment to some extent. I don’t think Syndergaard is a must play in cash. While both of his victories have come on the road, he is still a pitcher I prefer much more at home. I will still use him a lot tonight, but I don’t think it’s a cut and dry situation. Also, I don’t think he’s a lock for the win. That takes the wind out of a lot of sails on a site like FanDuel where the win is so important. I still think he is a good option, and I’m not going to take anyone against him, even in tournaments, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up 1-0 the opposite way.
Drew Pomeranz is unquestionable my favorite tournament play PERIOD tonight. His price is absurd, and he actually has a game where he scored more points than Thor, so he does have a nice upside. The biggest deal is that he’s just so cheap. Let’s say he were to give up 2 runs, but go 7 innings and rack up 7 K’s but not get the victory. That’s still 36 points. In a situation where he is so cheap, and COULD get a win because after all he is a good pitcher, I cannot understand why you would want to look elsewhere. His worst performance to date is 22 points. For the price, ask yourself, would you really be upset if that is what you got out of him and got to load up with bats you had a lot of confidence in? I put him in the 30 point range tonight, with early 40s not being out of the question if he grabs the win.
CASH PLAYS: Syndergaard
TOURNAMENT PLAYS: Pomeranz
Finally, and most importantly, make sure these picks are playing. Typically, I don’t have much time to go back at post updates, and I don’t want anyone to play someone that isn’t playing because I had them written up. Also, I like to discuss DFS on social media, but I normally only use the RF account, so hit me up @researchandwin on Twitter and we can talk shop!