Welcome to our MLB Daily Fantasy Breakdown! Today, we have a nice slate of Saturday night baseball.
Today, we will break everything down position by position. If you like what you see, don’t hesitate to follow us on Twitter @researchandwin and let us know we helped you or yell at us for leading you down the wrong path.
With that out of the way, let’s move on to the picks:
ZACK GREINKE – The pitching slate at night is much better than that during the day. My top play at pitcher today is Greinke. He is a poor environment, and to start the year, he really struggled, but in his last few starts, he has really come around. The Padres, despite putting up 10 runs last night, are still a poor offense, and Greinke is not Robbie Ray. I would expect him to put up a nice game tonight and shut the Padres down.
NOAH SYNDERGAARD – Syndergaard would be my number two on the night, behind Greinke. The opponent is a little tougher and the pitching opposition in Kenta Maeda is tougher, despite struggling in his last few starts. The Dodgers offense can be shut down, and Syndergaard at home has always been a matchup we like to exploit.
DANNY SALAZAR – I had a pretty lengthy write up done on Chen before I realized I did not like him. While the Braves are a bad offense, they still have a few guys I can really see giving him troubles. The Orioles provide an interesting offense for Salazar. They are the definition of boom or bust. If Salazar is off his game, he’s going to give up 8 runs. If he is on his game, he will have double digit strikeouts. I am opting for the latter today, and he is the one I feel best about playing in the afternoon slate.
JONATHAN LUCROY – I’m going to the well once again with Lucroy. He had a monster game last night, and there is nothing to make me believe that he won’t again today. Alfredo Simon is a poor starter, and the Brewers should have their way against him. Lucroy profiles as a top ten overall hitting based on our projections today.
CHRIS HERMANN – Cesar Vargas has not looked awful, but I expect these Diamondback bats to come out firing tonight against him. Poor excuse to play Diamondbacks? Sure, I don’t think it’s statistically backed up necessarily, but it is what I see happening. I am just excited for Chris Hermann to be back in the lineup tonight. He is the third most expensive catcher on the slate tonight, but well worth it if his stroke is there. He is well rested after the club faced several lefties in a row, and should be in a good position to dominate tonight.
JUSTIN BOUR – Bour has become a serviceable first base option when a right handed pitcher is on the mound. Aaron Blair has played very poorly during his initial run in the majors and tonight will likely be no different. I expect Bour to have a very strong game and produce well at his price point.
ADAM LIND – Lind is still reserved more for tournament play, as he has had a rough start to the year. He is still a guy likely to hit 20+ homeruns, and only has 5 at this point. 80% of his homeruns in 2016 have come within the last 8 games, so he is being faced with both better opportunities and is taking advantage of them. Lind has 2 home runs, 5 doubles and 17 strikeouts in 45 at bats against Phil Hughes, so we could see either another good game or a golden sombrero. That is why he is tournament only for me.
DEREK DIETRICH – I’d have to admit that I liked Dietrich a lot better when he was just above minimum price. Still, his price isn’t unreasonable and gets a good matchup today. He should bat second and I expect the Marlins to be one of the higher scoring offenses of the day. It has been awhile since he has taken one out of the yard, and Aaron Blair could definitely let that happen.
ROBINSON CANO – Cano profiles as one of the top overall hitting plays of the day against Phil Hughes. Hughes is a disaster waiting to happen, and this Seattle offense can certainly take advantage of him. The Mariners offense looks to score around 4.5 runs according to Vegas, and Cano has a premier lineup spot. I expect hi to easily pay off salary tonight.
HERNAN PEREZ – This is mostly dependent on his lineup spot, which I am thinking will probably be unfavorable today. Against a lefty, he could slot in the second spot, but against a righty, it is likely that Scooter Gennett will continue to occupy the two hole. It is still possible for him to hit second, with Gennett struggling lately, and if he does, he is almost a no brainer to me against Alfredo Simon for an offense I think could score a ton of runs today.
KYLE SEAGER – Seager has been going through a bit of a slump, but he still profiles well in this matchup. The top 6 for the Mariners are all possibilities for me tonight, and Seager has a power upside that could end up taking him a long way. I don’t like him as much as Cano in cash, nor do I like him as much as Lind in tournaments, but could still certainly end up outscoring both.
JONATHAN VILLAR – Villar is basically a no brainer play today. He has done extremely well in the leadoff spot for Milwaukee, and should see five at bats at least tonight. This offense could steamroll Simon and end up with that awful Reds bullpen. I will likely have a stack of Brewers, even in my cash games.
CARLOS CORREA – Correa at this point may seem unappealing, and I understand why. Still, he is a top tier player, and his price is now starting to decline. With more usable stud pitching on this slate, people may not want to look his way if spending up, making him a great option within tournaments. Weaver is a shell of himself, and we could certainly see an offensive explosion out of Houston tonight.
RYAN BRAUN – If Christian Yelich plays today, he profiles as our top hitter, but I’m not sure that will be the case. With Yelich out, Braun is our top hitter of the day, in a great matchup against gas can Alfredo Simon. Yes, we have beat Simon up in this article, but with absolute good reason. This is an interesting BvP play, as Braun is 0-8 with no strikeouts against Simon. What does that mean? Well, he’s putting the ball into play, and with the power of Braun, at some point, those balls in play will land deep in or out of the park for extra base hits. He is my favorite play on the day, and I am expecting a monster game from him.
NOMAR MAZARA – Mazara has been as hot as anyone in baseball over the last week, and a matchup against Juan Nicasio should help him continue his roll. He should slot in the second spot, and I think the opportunities for 5 at bats exist. I don’t think this offense should perform as poorly as it did last night, and Mazara should have a solid game.
CAMERON MAYBIN – Maybin has been on fire since coming off the DL, and nothing about Jesse Hahn makes me think it won’t continue today. He’s got great speed, and even some power upside, but ultimately, he is hitting with one of the top offenses in baseball. He is an easy buy for me today.
ICHIRO SUZUKI – Suzuki is way too cheap and likely hitting leadoff today against a poor pitcher in Aaron Blair. He is an easy play in cash games due to his low price and likelihood to cross the plate tonight. If he can get one hit, one steal and a run, that’s 12.2 points; a fine showing for someone just above minimum price.
GEORGE SPRINGER. – The Astros offense as a whole is untrustworthy, but you cannot deny the fact that they are in a good spot tonight. Springer will bat first or second depending how the coach feels tonight. He has upside in every way we want, and I a guy I am probably looking at more for tournaments for cash games, but has a big upside tonight.