Welcome to our MLB Daily Fantasy Breakdown! Today, we have a nice slate of Saturday baseball.
I have been working tirelessly on creating a projection system. As of today, I am still pretty far away from that, but I’m getting there. I will probably roll out pitcher projections first, and then move to hitters. It is very important to me to get realistic figures. If I think Mark Trumbo is going to hit two homeruns [like I did on Thursday!], I don’t want to create a projection system that puts him at 9 points. It needs to accurately reflect my thoughts mixed with analytics.
I am under a bit of a time constraint today, so with that being said, I am not going to provide game by game breakdowns, but rather look at specific situations.. If you like what you see, don’t hesitate to follow us on Twitter @researchandwin and let us know we helped you or yell at us for leading you down the wrong path.
With that out of the way, let’s move on to the picks:
PITCHERS I LIKE:
RUBBY DE LA ROSA – I still feel dirty every time I suggest him. The first thing is that his 2016 numbers do not match his career numbers, at least to some extent. His slider has been landing and he has shown great control over his pitches – in the games he has dominated at least. He was a guy we liked to target previously in DFS, because he wasn’t pitching well and he played in a hitter’s park. The biggest decision here is deciding if you think 2016 is a breakout year or if it the start is an anomaly. I am learning toward him having a career year. His price is low, and even though the Giants have put up decent run totals in the last few games in Arizona, this could certainly be a let down spot for them. He is my top tournament play of the day, unquestionably, as he has one 60+ and 2 40+ fantasy outings, with some pretty bad ones in between.
KEVIN GAUSMAN – Gausman again had hypes coming into the 2016 season, and this year it is starting to show. The negative is that he might not be a high strikeout pitcher. He is priced in that spot where perhaps this will cause you to overlook him. The Tigers have looked mostly dead at the plat over the last few nights, but the bats have not. If Gausman gives you 7 innings, 5 runs, 2 allowed and gets his first win, which is does appear Vegas expects him to get, 42 points for a sub 8k player becomes I believe a great value to allow you to build up elsewhere.
ALEX WOOD – Is Wood finally turning a corner? He seems to be with strikeouts. That is the first positive. I like having some juice in the late games, as often times they are lower owned. I think this sets up well for Wood, at his home park, against a Cardinals team that hasn’t come out on the winning side yet this series. The Cardinals will put Mike Leake on the mound, who I believe will have a hard time with the lefty bats, and I think we could see a nice outing from Wood at a lower price.
PITCHERS I AM PICKING ON
BOSTON/HOUSTON – Expect high ownership of players on both sides of this game. Boston is the hottest team in baseball, and they are sending out a gas can to try to keep the Astros from scoring. Good luck. Vegas has a total of 11 on this game, which is the highest of the day, including Coors. I don’t blame you if you roll out lineups with just players from this game.
HITTERS I LIKE:
ADAM JONES: Well, hello there! Adam Jones has fully broken out of his early season slump and is still priced like he’s in one. This is a no brainer today for me. Play Jones until he cools down again.
JACKIE BRADLEY JR: He’s definitely the hottest hitter in baseball right now, but he is priced like it. I didn’t imagine we’d be paying near 4k for him, but with the results he is putting out, I am fine with it. I see another big outing for him, as he is now 6th in the order with Big Papi out today.
DANNY VALENCIA: Valencia is a known lefty killer, who has taken a slow start to the season. I am not on the Matt Moore is a bust train by any stretch of the imagination, BUT I do think he is going to give some runs up today. He will almost certainly have invisible ownership with so many games on the slate, and if he double dongs again, he’s going to win you big bucks. There is also the big concern for a whammy.
TROY TULOWITZKI: In case you haven’t noticed, I tend to play guys who are streaking. Well, that is when I am winning at least. Every now and then I depart from this, and I go through prolonged losing streaks. Tulo is hitting the ball well right now, and is honestly the only Blue Jay I have any interest in rostering today.
CHRIS OWINGS – It is always a good strategy to find one low priced guy to maximize your output on your other bats. Owings very rarely gives you nothing – over his last 10 games he has only goose egged once, several less than both Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson. His next lowest is multiple 6.5’s, which isn’t the worst for a slightly above minimum player. He has homerun upside, and he is in a hitter’s park, which means his drought will end soon. I am definitely all over him today in both formats.
Thanks for reading, and we will be back tomorrow with our normal breakdown.