CFL DFS Picks for DraftKings – 2017 Week 2
Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s CFL Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!
Week one of the CFL season was an up and down affair. We saw two of the best receivers in the game, Adarius Bowman and Emmanuel Arceneaux, completely shut down, while guys like DeVier Posey and Brandon Zylstra completely dominated in their matchups. Jonathon Jennings was also a huge bust. For me personally, it was a bittersweet week. My cash games put up a salty 66 points, while I came one awful offensive line away from taking down the Kickoff on DraftKings:
I’ll take the 2nd place prize, no questions about it.
This week, I think will be even more crazy than week one. I would expect to see the ownerships of guys like Zystra, Posey, Robbie Ray and a few others to increase dramatically going into this week. This sets up to be a great week to take advantage of those situations if you feel like repeat performances are not likely. Additionally, we could see guys like Bowman and Arceneaux at lower ownerships than they deserve, so I think we could very well end up seeing interesting results with a lot of guys being over valued based off of big games last week.
I want this to be more of an article that gets updated rather often as opposed to just sitting the same until the end of the weekend. I am going to do my best to update each of these games as news comes out regarding them. As always, we will post the CFL Team Depth Charts as they are released.
Ottawa RedBlacks @ Calgary Stampeders
Ottawa: Joshua Stangby ended up being a big surprise this first week. Not only did he manage to grab a touchdown on 5 catches with 7 targets, but he was a surprise in the return game. He basically had the game I expected Diontae Spencer to have. It’s only been one game, so I don’t want to go crazy with him, but he’s on the radar. Brad Sinpoli and Greg Ellingson both managed double digit targets. William Powell left the game early, which lead to a big game for Brendan Gillanders. Powell practiced on Monday, so we’ll have to wait for the depth charts to come out to get some idea of what is going to happen here.
Depth Chart Notes: You do see Joshua Stangby’s name all over the place. In my opinion, I think that makes him a stable option. William Powell is listed at the top of the depth chart once again. I really wonder if it was an injury that kept him out of the entire second half, or if they want to ease him into the year. If that’s the case, we’ll continue to play him and only get a limited amount of football from him. Outside of that, we see much of the same.
Calgary: Roy Finch is suspended for two games. He was one of the most, if not the most, productive return man in week 1. I’m not sure as of this writing who that benefits most, but once the depth chart and notes come out, we can get a better idea on who could get the return yards. DaVaris Daniels got good news on his MRI, but he is likely to miss this week. Rory Kohlert and Jarrett Boykin are on the 1 game IR. If they return this week, they could muddle the receiving unit, but one would imagine that Marquay McDaniels (15 targets) and Kamar Jorden (11 targets) should be safe.
Depth Chart Notes: Trey Williams will be returning punts and kicks, but ultimately, he won’t be much of a factor in things, and you can’t play him. With the injury to DaVaris Daniels, Marken Michel will be put on the main roster. Michel was the top receiver for the Massachusetts Minutemen this past season, and was second fiddle to Tajae Sharpe the year before. He could make an impact similar to how Daniels did last year, BUT he is not in the player pool either. That one is a bummer.
BC Lions @ Toronto Argonauts
BC: There wasn’t a lot to like last week, as the BC offensive line looked to struggle considerably. The few things I like are that Arceneaux still led the team in targets despite struggling to do anything with them and that Chris Rainey looks to have a role on this team outside of special teams. There’s always a silver lining.
Depth Chart Notes: Honestly, nothing.
Toronto: Brian Jones and Khalil Paden should come off the 1 game IR this week, but we’ll have to see how the depth chart reflects that. S.J. Green looked great, as did DeVier Posey. That was one hell of a week to start the year off!
Depth Chart Notes: Huge news here, as Brandon Whitaker will not be starting for Toronto. James Wilder Jr. will take the start this week. The value is huge ($3200), but there is no guarantee the production will be there. His ownership is going to sky rocket this week, and this rushing attack was not good last week. I’m standing pat that I think BC is going to control this game on both sides of the ball. While everyone will flock to Wilder, especially in tournaments, I’m going to construct my roster entirely different.
Montreal Alouettes @ Edmonton Eskimos
Montreal: If the Alouettes continue to use a receiver by committee approach this year, it’s going to render them completely useless. Five receivers saw between 4-6 targets in week 1. B.J. Cunningham and Nik Lewis looked the best this week, but there is no guarantee that will continue moving forward. This just isn’t a situation I love.
Depth Chart Notes: Everything sets up the same as last week. Outside of Tyrell Sutton, this just isn’t a situation I love.
Edmonton: J.C. Sherrit, the Eskimos linebacker, went down with an achilles injury in Week 1, and the play at the position didn’t look as good afterword. As I said above, I hope people are off of Bowman after his awful game, because this is a great time to get him at low ownership. I could easily see the bounce back happen. I’m not ready to rule Duke Williams and Brandon Zylstra out of the conversation, though.
Depth Chart: Van will be returning kicks, but really all the important pieces remain the same. I am growing concerned with my Bowman ownership, but I think I’m going to stay put.
Winnipeg BlueBombers @ Saskatchewan RoughRiders
Winnipeg: This is our first glimpse at the Winnipeg offense this year, and it gets a Saskatchewan team that had a very tight, low scoring game with Montreal on Opening Night. Andrew Harris is a great running back, and I wouldn’t hesitate to use him here. The offense is very interesting, so I’ll be paying a lot of attention to the depth chart before cementing my final opinion.
Depth Chart Notes: This is the first time we are seeing Winnipeg this year, so nothing to compare it with. I REALLY like the spot for Darvin Adams this week, and I am hoping to see a monster game from him.
Saskatchewan: Kienan LaFrance should come off the IR this week, and at his price, makes a compelling play against Winnipeg. If not, Cameron Marshall could fill that void. I would hope that this game will be higher scoring that last Thursday and I’m pretty confident in that happening.
Depth Chart Notes: Rob Bagg is back, but Kienan LaFrance is not. Even though Bagg is back, Demski is still listed as a starting receiver and kick/pun returner, which in my opinion, makes him a great value.
With that said, here are some of my favorite plays for the week:
Bo Levi Mitchell (10400) – Bo Levi Mitchell is one of the surest bets you can make in CFL DFS. He very rarely has a bad game, especially when those games are at home. One thing I noticed about all the games last week is that everyone was really slow to get going. I think this game is going to be highly spirited, and I am expecting both teams to come out firing from the first play of the game. Mitchell should easily surpass the 300 yard mark, and I’m expecting him to have at least 3 touchdown passed. I see a big week ahead for him and he makes a great starting point in your lineups.
Trevor Harris (10100) – I think a lot of players might opt for Ricky Ray and his cheaper salary, but I’m not sold on Toronto being that good yet. It is a situation where I am fine with being on the wrong side of it this week. Harris was so low owned this past week that it was kind of pathetic. His price comes up, putting him with Mitchell and Mike Reilly, so I could see this repeating itself again this week. I can see him going toe to toe with Mitchell, and it wouldn’t shock me to see them put up similar stat lines. The big deal is the likely gap in ownership and the $300 that can be used to differentiate your lineup elsewhere.
Chris Rainey (6600) – What can I really say? Basically all of the high dollar backs (you know, the ones that many others told you it was not a good idea to play even though at least one was on every single winning lineup) are in good spots yet again, so I want to pivot a bit. I’m really convinced that BC is going to take it to Toronto, and as they get worn down, they aren’t going to have an answer for Rainey. He has a relatively safe floor because he’s going to be the main return guy, but he’ll also get some touches out of the backfield or as a receiver. If you manage to get him on a week where he scores a touchdown, and you play the BC defense, you get the double dip, and a great score in your lineup.
Tyrell Sutton (6100) – Edmonton just didn’t look good in the run game last week, and even though I think I like Jeremiah Johnson more than Sutton, he should still be in position to have a solid game this week. He’s probably the most steady member of this Montreal team, and that is a team I just don’t see carrying much ownership this week. If he can get in the endzone, you are likely in a position where you get a nice score with low ownership.
Marquay McDaniel (8400) – I was so happy when I saw McDaniel’s price this week and it wasn’t high. He looked awesome, aside from a costly catch, and should be primed for another double-digit target game this week. I think he’s going to get into the end zone as well. If he is able to do that and get over the 100 yard mark, you could be looking at the highest scoring receiver on the slate. The price just really isn’t that high considered what you are getting.
Greg Ellingson (6900) – Ellingson just had a game where he had 13 targets, and put up over 100 receiving yards. That was a great start to the season. There is no doubt that Trevor Harris will continue to look his way this week, and he should be able to replicate what we saw him do in week one. If he manages to do that, it will be a good game. I am expecting this OTT/CGY game to be nothing but non-stop action, which should yield some quality fantasy performances. Ellingson is my favorite on Ottawa.
Nic Demski (4300) – I started writing up Namaan Roosevelt before I realized how cheap Demski was. Sure, this could be one of those one week performances that never happen again, but really, I think it can continue. He went 7-87 in the first week, which at this price is amazing. Considering guys like Zylstra and Posey saw their price jump huge because they either went over 100 yards or caught a touchdown, Demski didn’t see his budge. He’s likely only benefitting from injuries to other receivers, but he seems to be a favorite of Kevin Glenn. That’s enough for me to look his way again this week against Winnipeg.
BC Lions (4700) – One thing I am buying in on this weekend is that the Toronto Argonauts and their offensive explosion where a bit of a fluke. I think that it could be semi-popular looking to play a QB that threw for 500 yards and hopes that he does it again with more than one touchdown. I’m not buying. Yes, I get that Marc Trestman knows how to run and offense and get the best out of a 37-year old Ricky Ray, but that performance isn’t something he should be doing on a weekly basis. Taking the other side of the coin could be an excellent tournament play this week. It also never hurts to get the upside of a potential Chris Rainey return, either.