Welcome to this edition of the CFL Daily Fantasy Breakdown!
Raise your hands if you have been getting killed by injuries so far this year. I have mine raised, as I’ve been a cash game owner of Trevor Harris, Curtis Steele, Weston Dressler, Quincy McDuffie and Nic Grigsby for a quarter and a half in the last two weeks. The picks have been pretty solid all things considered and I hope they continue to be.
This article will largely be based off the projections available on this site. It is important to note that it will take these projections a few weeks to smooth out. I will go through each position in this article and highlight a few plays I like, and then some others I would stay away from, despite what the projections say. The CFL is a bit of an anomaly at this point, and I don’t think it is fair to use last year’s statistics as a basis for this year. With that said, if you like what you see let us know on Twitter @researchandwin or on Facebook at Research Fantasy. Also, check out our CFL Research Portal. It is very useful in making fantasy decisions.
Bo Levi Mitchell ($10,300) – Calgary Stampeders vs. Saskatchewan Rough Riders
I think Mike Reilly is a fine play here as well, but I also don’t mind saving the $1,000 and dropping down to Mitchell tonight. The Rough Riders have been a slightly below average defense at defending the pass, but Mitchell has been very good on the year. He is playing his best football at home, and I think he’s most likely the guy I am going to be looking at for cash game exposure. I think there will be a number of routes players go, but Mitchell should be the safest.
Jonathan Jennings ($8,700) –BC Lions @ Montreal Alouettes
There has been no better quarterback in the CFL in the last two weeks that Jennings. He is averaging almost 40 fantasy points, which is absurd. The Alouettes have been playing pretty good defense this year, but in tournaments, I will absolutely be riding the hot hand, and his much too cheap for recent production price. Even if gets around 30 points, he is an absolute steal for the price. I expect fairly decent ownership on him in tournaments. Just be warned, his floor is pretty low, but that’s the type of player we target in tournaments.
Nic Grigsby ($6,300) – Ottawa Red Blacks vs. Edmonton Eskimos
I thought everything looked good for Grigsby to have a nice game this week, but a few things kept that from happening. First, Henry Burris was awful, and he couldn’t get the offense going. Second, Grigsby missed about a quarter and a half, and wasn’t part of the drives at the end of the game. Still, the opponents this week are a much better matchup, which gives me a great deal of interest in Grigsby. I think the offense should have more luck, and I look for Grigsby to be more involved than he was last week.
Brandon Rutley ($6,700) – Montreal Alouettes vs. BC Lions
The Lions aren’t a great on paper matchup, but Rutler is being utilized pretty well out of the backfield, so I will continue to target him. He’s priced better than some of the higher priced backs that I feel like he has a similar floor to. He should continue to be highly owned as he has been turning out pretty good production with Tyrell Sutton out of action. This could be the last week we can use him under $7k, so we might as well do it while we can.
Derel Walker ($10,900) – Edmonton Eskimos @ Ottawa RedBlacks
Over the last few weeks, we’ve seen the top priced receiver fall short in pretty good matchups. Will the same fate befall Derel Walker this week? I’m leaning toward no. He’s been very consistent, and Ottawa lost one of their top DB’s in their game against the Argonatus Sunday night, so it’s going to be tough to matchup against both Walker and Bowman. He’s going to cost a lot, but I think he’s got the highest floor and ceiling of all the receivers this week. As always, I love the combo of Bowman and Walker in tournaments.
Emmanuel Arceneaux ($7,800) – BC Lions @ Montreal Alouettes
Arceneaux finally had a really nice game last week, and I am looking for things to continue this week. He is priced fairly, and make an excellent cash game play. I would put his floor at about 15 for this matchup. Even though it may not look great on paper, I am expecting this BC Lions team to put up some points against the Alouettes and Manny should be one of the top contributors. I wouldn’t go as far to say as I see him as being the highest scoring receiver this week, but he should definitely be near the top.
Quincy McDuffie ($4,200) – Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Hamilton Tiger Cats
I really liked this play last week, and he had a nice first half before falling to an injury right before halftime. If he is able to go this week, he is in an excellent position. Even though the Tiger Cats are the top team in the league against the pass, we will be dealing with a situation where, in all likelihood, Weston Dressler and Darvin Adams will be out. That leaves he and Jace Davis as the top targets. I’ll default to McDuffie due to both price and the fact that he returns kicks.
Hamilton Tiger Cats ($5,100) – Hamilton Tiger Cats @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Overall, I like the matchup here for the Tiger Cats, who have been one of the best defenses in the CFL all year. They are priced like it, but with only $600 between this team and the lowest price team, and some real value options emerging, I don’t see a reason to take a chance with a lower priced defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw them in the mid-teens, but are ultimately hoping for another mid-twenties performance from them.