Welcome to this edition of the CFL Daily Fantasy Breakdown!
This article will largely be based off the projections available on this site. It is important to note that it will take these projections a few weeks to smooth out. I will go through each position in this article and highlight a few plays I like, and then some others I would stay away from, despite what the projections say. The CFL is a bit of an anomaly at this point, and I don’t think it is fair to use last year’s statistics as a basis for this year. With that said, if you like what you see let us know on Twitter @researchandwin or on Facebook at Research Fantasy.
Trevor Harris ($11,200) – Ottawa RedBlacks @ Saskatchewan RoughRiders
Harris has been a fantasy monster this year, and all indications are that things will continue this week. The RoughRiders are the third worst in the CFL at stopping the pass, and this is a tough passing offense. Harris finished with 26 fantasy points this past week, despite not passing for a single touchdown. He did rush for one, which highlights his ability to contribute to his fantasy score in many ways. He will be highly owned once again this week, but has exhibited his reliability, especially in cash games.
Bo Levi Mitchell ($9,800) – Calgary Stampeders @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg has been getting absolutely blown away through the air. The next quarterback to step up is Mitchell. Mitchell is coming off a bye week, so he should be fully rested coming into this contest. Outside of opening week, Mitchell has a pair of 25-point games, which is good production for his price. This week, I like for Mitchell to flirt with his first thirty point game of the year, and should return excellent value for his price.
Andrew Harris ($7,600) – Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Calgary Stampeders.
Calgary has been about a league average defense against the running game, but that isn’t why we are talking about him here. Harris has been contributing at a high level through the passing game, and I think that is what is going to get him those points this week. I can see Drew Willy needing to dump passes off to him several times through the night, and coupled with his normal rushing production, should get him over the 10 point mark. I am going to go even further to say that I think not only will Harris see his first touchdown on Thursday, but also his first 20 point fantasy game.
Brandon Whitaker ($6,600) – Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes
Whitaker had a tough go of things over the first two weeks of the season, but has quickly turned things around with two back-to-back games eclipsing 19 points. This week, he will get an Alouettes team that is allowing 115 yards per game, which is by far the most in the CFL. The great thing about Whitaker is that he is used heavily in the passing game. With receptions being one point on DraftKings, you can get some easy points with check down passes. I think Whitaker should keep his streak of 19+ point fantasy games going.
Greg Ellingson ($8,100) – Ottawa RedBlacks @ Saskatchewan RoughRiders
Ellingson had an absolutely monster game against Toronto last week, grabbing 9 receptions for over 200 yards. I’m not expecting 200 yards, but I think it is quite possible to see him go over 100 yards again and grabbing his second touchdown of the year. I think Harris is a pretty good bet to pass for over 300 yards, and I expect Ellingson to challenge Chris Williams for targets and yardage yet again this week. I have a feeling this season could quickly turn into a guessing game between those two.
Namaan Roosevelt ($7,900) – Saskatchewan RoughRiders @ Ottawa Red Blacks
We saw Roosevelt back to being a target monster, and gets another quality matchup against the RedBlacks this week. Roosevelt comes in as one of the best plays per dollar on the night. If he can come close to the same production with a touchdown or two, we can be talking about an absolute monster performance. I think regardless we will see him grab his first touchdown this week, and I am banking on a 20 point performance this week.
Jace Davis ($4,900) – Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Calgary Stampeders
Davis certainly disappointed us last week, but I am going to go back to the well this week. The matchup is good, and I think he will have more room to work in the offense. He is still priced way too low at $4.9k, and I think he will return to the level of production of the first three weeks of the season. This could be the last week we could get the mostly reliably option this cheap.
Hamilton Tiger-Cats ($5,500) – Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Edmonton Eskimos
The Tiger-Cats come in this week as the highest priced defense, but also are the top projected defense. Our projection tool says they should score 20 points, which is above and beyond what any of the other teams are poised to get. I would rather pay up for the defense that looks like it should produce consistently, than trying to take a chance on a cheaper defense that might look like it is in a good spot.