Welcome to this edition of the CFL Daily Fantasy Breakdown!
This article will largely be based off the projections available on this site. It is important to note that it will take these projections a few weeks to smooth out. I will go through each position in this article and highlight a few plays I like, and then some others I would stay away from, despite what the projections say. The CFL is a bit of an anomaly at this point, and I don’t think it is fair to use last year’s statistics as a basis for this year. With that said, if you like what you see let us know on Twitter @researchandwin or on Facebook at Research Fantasy.
Mike Reilly ($10,800) – Edmonton Eskimos @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers
It was a tough call for my top choice at the position this week, but I am going to give a very slight edge to Reilly over Trevor Harris. Both have been excellent, but I believe this is a better position for Reilly. Winnipeg has really struggled against the pass to start the year, and this Eskimos offense can put a hurting on you in a hurry through the air. Our projections have him as the only quarterback over 30 points this week, so he is my cash game lock at the position.
Drew Willy ($9,000) – Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Edmonton Eskimos
If Winnipeg struggles against the pass, then I don’t know what to say about Edmonton. Through the early portion of the year, the Eskimos have given up almost 420 yards per game through the air. That is crazy. Willy hasn’t had an absolute monster game yet, but I think he will this week. His price makes him a perfect play in tournaments, as you can really get some firepower around him.
John White ($7,500) – Edmonton Eskimos @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers
White has been absolutely dominant to start the year. He comes in on our projections as the second best matchup on the day, but I am going to give him the edge over other backs in a similar price range. The Eskimos are basically handing the ball off every first down, which gives him an immense workload. Additionally, the Blue Bombers are one of two teams coughing up over 100 rushing yards allowed per game. I know a lot of people want to skimp at the running back position, and sometimes it can work, but when you have a guy in a matchup like this, I don’t see the benefit of trying to be too cute in cash games.
Nic Grigsby ($5,100) – Ottawa RedBlacks @ Toronto Argonauts
I’m not quite sure yet how the BC Lions backfield will shake out, but either one would make good value depending on who gets the start. Unfortunately, that game is on Saturday, and it is the only one on Saturday. They are close enough in price that you could plug the most expensive option in and adjust accordingly. However, just slightly cheaper is Grigsby, who had a reasonably good game, despite a costly lost fumble. He should see the start again this week, against an Argonauts team that is just slightly below the league average at defending the run. His price makes him an attractive option at the position, with 20 point upside if he produces roughly the same and manages a touchdown.
Chris Williams ($11,000) – Ottawa RedBlacks @ Toronto Argonauts
Williams is now basically the most expensive player in CFL DFS. He has been consistent, averaging gaudy 164 yards receiving per game and 2 touchdowns per game. I would have to believe this is a pace that cannot continue, but you are playing a dangerous game if you are guessing when the drop-off happens. Toronto is slightly above average against the pass, but this is just one of those situations where I think he is matchup proof. I would except insane ownership rates on him again this week.
Andy Fantuz ($6,800) – Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ Montreal Alouettes
If you are looking for a nice mid-tier option on the slate, I would heavily consider Andy Fantuz, who comes in as our number three projected receiver on the slate. He has been ultra consistent on the year, averaging seven receptions, 80 yards and almost a touchdown a game on average. He is priced attractively, despite the fact that the Alouettes are one of our top projected defenses. If you plan on going the route of spending at running back, as well as a high priced QB and WR, he makes a great salary saver.
Jace Davis ($4,300) – Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Edmonton Eskimos
Jace Davis is probably the most underpriced player in CFL DFS right now. He has three straight games of over 15 points in fantasy production, but yet he is just over $4k. If he happens to grab a touchdown pass, he will pay off his salary and will most likely win you a tournament. I will have across the board, 100% ownership of him this week. You should highly consider having him in yours as well.
Montreal Alouettes ($4,600) – Montreal Alouettes vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats
I am somewhat surprised that the Alouettes are priced this cheap, considering the turnover prone Tiger-Cats are the opposition. Moreover, the Alouettes are averaging 4 sacks a game, which is an additional four points. Just on turnovers and sacks, the team is looking at averaging roughly 12 points. If they can keep the score low, add a rouge or two, and score a defensive touchdown, they will have a tournament winning score.