Best NBA DFS FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings Picks & Tips – 2/27/17

Welcome to another edition of ResearchFantasy’s NBA Breakdown. These picks are what I consider to be the best play of the day, relative to their price. One of the most important things we must consider in daily fantasy is how many points a player gets per dollar. It helps us identify value plays to pair with studs that we know will produce in order to maximize our potential points in lineups. I also try to identify plays that can be used in either cash games or tournaments. Typically, when I build my cash games, I am looking for players that have the best floor combined with good upside. If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please let us know!

Pricing is FantasyDraft/FanDuel/DraftKings

POINT GUARD:

Stephen Curry (18200/9300/9900) – This slate is definitely REALLY interesting. I know it sounds cliche, but I think that this is going to be either really high score or really low scoring. It is much like yesterday where I just can’t get a great feel on how I see things landing. It doesn’t help that Kevin Durant is questionable tonight, which could throw a major wrench into everything we try to do. My gut reaction is that with the playoffs clinched and a soft opponent on tap, Durant will not play. If he doesn’t, it’s likely that we’ll see the game revolve around Steph and Klay. Curry didn’t come through like I thought he would on Saturday night, but that doesn’t mean I won’t go back to the well tonight in another plus matchup against the Sixers. I think Steph could have a field day with them.

Patrick Beverley

Patrick Beverley (10800/5500/5500) – Moving on from Curry, the next guy at the position that I really like is Patrick Beverley. He is coming off a big game against the Timberwolves, and gets another favorable situation for himself against the Pacers. Jeff Teague isn’t an intimidating defender, so I fully expect to see Beverley attack early and often. The Rockets are a tough team right now, and the Pacers aren’t a team that I’m really overly concerned with. I think Beverley should be able to come through with another game near 30 points. I ran out of room for picks, but I also think Darren Collison against the aforementioned Timberwolves makes sense as well.

Cory Joseph (10200/4400/5200) – As long as Kyle Lowry is out, Joseph is going to be a lock. His price really hasn’t moved to a point where I think it’s too high to pay for him, and the matchup here is very nice against the Knicks, who are a mess defensively. Derrick Rose is all offense and no defense, and that is saying something if we are being honest with one another. I think he’s got a floor of at least 25 and a ceiling in the 40’s, so he should remain on your radar. If Lowry does somehow play, then Joseph has almost no value.

SHOOTING GUARD:

DeMar DeRozan (16400/8500/8900) – As long as Kyle Lowry is out, I’m going to be relying on the core of Cory Joseph and DeMar DeRozan. There is no reason not to. He really didn’t end up running too much yesterday, as they monitored his minutes to ensure that he wouldn’t get worn out with a game on Monday as well. From my perspective, we should see another 40+ point game, with the upside there for DeRozan to hit 50. I think you are just paying for the safety that you are likely to get from him, so there is no reason to not put him in your lineups tonight.

Klay Thompson

Dec 8, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson (11) takes a shot against Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Golden State defeats Indiana 131-123. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Klay Thompson (13300/7100/7000) – Klay Thompson is another guy we want, but he’s yet another guy that is probably contingent on having another play sit. It isn’t to say that he isn’t worth a look either way, but at his price, he’s going to have to hit heavy, and that isn’t something that he hasn’t been doing consistently this year. His game is pretty one dimensional: shooting. Surprising from a shoot guard, am I right? Sure, he’ll come through with a few boards, assists and steals, but nothing over the top. I think he’s a lock if Durant is out, but if Durant plays, he falls much further down my list of guys I need to have in my lineups.

Seth Curry (11300/6000/5700) – Finally, I think Seth Curry is still worth a look. Miami is definitely one of those teams that I don’t love tossing players out there against, but Curry still has enough upside at this price that even if he doesn’t have a monster game, I still think he’ll come through with around 30 fantasy points. He showed his versatility last time out, coming somewhat close to a triple double all while having a poor shooting night. He will likely carry high ownership due to his recent play, so there might be some merit in fading him in some of your tournament lineups.

SMALL FORWARD:

Carmelo Anthony (15600/8200/8500) – Hey guys, let’s make another assumption about a player being out. Kristaps Porzingis was announced as missing “several games”, and it’s only been one, so my gut reaction is that we’ll likely see him miss tonight as well. When he is out, Anthony has to do more work, and his price just doesn’t account for what we’ll have to do. The Raptors will be coming off a tough fought game against the Blazers while the Knicks will be relaxing and waiting. I’ll have ample ownership of Anthony tonight, and he should be a good bet for another game in the mid-40’s.

Robert Covington

Robert Covington (13700/7100/7300) – I would be lying if I didn’t say I felt at least somewhat uncomfortable with the idea of playing Sixers against the Warriors. Something about this Golden State team, especially without Kevin Durant, isn’t as formidable. I’m not saying they aren’t very, very good. I’m just saying that it will take a little longer to shake their opponent off. We saw the Nets hang around them on Saturday night, and the Sixers are a much better team than the Nets [wow, poor Nets]. I’m confident that we’ll still see Covington put up a ton of shots, and if they are going down then he’s going to rack up a monster game.

Andre Iguodala (9100/4500/4600) – Recurring theme alert: if Kevin Durant is out, then Iggy is just far too cheap given the matchup. He should be a good bet to crack the 25 point mark, and if he does, that will be a great return on his price. We’ve seen him crack a few 30 point fantasy games this year, so it’s not out of the question. I think he’s a good tournament option tonight, and probably an even better cash game one as long as Durant is out. I think he’s actually in a good spot regardless because Draymond Green has been absolutely awful and you can tell Kerr isn’t hesitating to sit him down. Iggy handles the ball well and will be one of the ball handlers with Curry off the court.

POWER FORWARD:

Paul Millsap (13600/7400/7200) – Millsap has been very quiet as of late, but will find himself matched up with some form of Jae Crowder or Jaylen Brown. That’s fine with me. I think things are likely to work out very well for Trillsap, who can turn the game on it’s ears at any point and time. I think he any Dennis Schroeder make a pretty nice tandem in tournament lineups, as I can see them working off one another to put up some nice scores. The Hawks have struggled while Millsap has found difficulty getting going, but I expect that to end tonight.

Dario Saric (14000/7100/7600) – Saric has been on fire while Joel Embiid has been out, and it has almost allowed basketball fans in general about the big man. I’ve been saying for months that if Embiid were not on the Sixers, we would be hearing a lot more talk about there being a competition for Rookie of the Year. I think Saric’s style fits this type of game with Golden State very well, and honestly, for being a rookie, he really doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. I don’t mind using him in any format whatsoever.

Skal Labissiere (6600/3600/3400) – I will admit I’m not feeling well while writing this, and you are probably shaking your head after reading that Labissiere has made the list over Willie Cauley-Stein. There is a good reason. I think that Labissiere is playing like he wants it more right now and honestly that goes a long way in my book. I think WCS undoubtedly has a higher upside, but I think I like where Labissiere is priced much more. He’s got a lot of room for upside, and the matchup isn’t horrible against Minnesota. I could see him going over 20 points again here tonight.

CENTER:

Karl-Anthony Towns (19200/10600/10800) – Since the Kings have traded away DeMarcus Cousins, they’ve been eaten alive by centers. Well, this is certainly going to be a problem for them tonight then. Towns is playing absolutely insane right now, and there is little question in my mind that we could be looking at another 60+ point outing. The price isn’t high enough on him that I’m willing to look past him. I have a feeling that we’re going to see one of the biggest games of his year and career [hey, not a bold call since he’s only two years in] and is my overall favorite play of the day.

Kyle O'Quinn

Kyle O’Quinn (10200/4200/5200) – Kyle O’Quinn is one hell of a tournament play, let me tell ya. I think right now, Wily Hernangomez is the favorite at the position for the Knicks, and we know that the Raptors are a little bit soft in the paint. I do understand there was some foul issue at hand that kept Hernangomez out of the lineup on Saturday, but even at that, they seemed to just favor O’Quinn a little bit more. He’s dynamic and can really do a lot of different things to get his fantasy totals up. He’s a good bet to be able to make value, especially on FanDuel where he is dirt cheap.

Javale McGee (6300/3600/3200) – I know a lot of people are going to think I am crazy, but it really isn’t I know that Shaq thinks that this dude is a bum, but I think he can come through with 20-22 fantasy points against the Sixers. He’s going to be able to out muscle everyone in the front court in Philadelphia, and will as a guarantee be extremely low owned. There is almost no chance he has a big game, but he could do enough to allow you to fit more studs into your lineups.

Slate Strategy

This is probably the most interesting slate outside of opening night because so much can be dictated by the status of Kyle Lowry, Kristaps Porzingis and Kevin Durant. It’s almost like you cannot really start with your thought process until you know what’s going to happen. It seems unlikely that Porzingis and Lowry play. Right now, Durant has been upgraded to probably, but I seriously cannot imagine Steve Kerr risking anything against the Sixers, but that looks to diminish the upside of Thompson and Curry somewhat.

With that said, I will most likely make my starting point Karl-Anthony Towns. I think he’s a safe bet for 50+ points tonight against a team that surely will not be able to defend him. Like I said above, I am expecting some pretty ridiculous things coming from him on Monday night, and I really am not going to be shocked if he matches his score from Saturday night.

From there, as long as Kyle Lowry is out, DeMar DeRozan and Cory Joseph will be going in. Both of these guys still seem underpriced for what we could see them do against the Knicks. This is a Knicks team that just made the Sixers look like at worst the three seed.

From there, I think using the picks above and below this section will help you fully round out your tournament lineups tonight.

Situations to Monitor

Golden State – As we’ve said in about 3/4 of this article, Kevin Durant looks to be playing tonight, though I think that is crazy. I will likely redo some of this article tomorrow to account for the likelihood that Durant will play.

Toronto – Kyle Lowry out = DeMar DeRozan + Cory Joseph. Otherwise, we’d have to reconsider our position.

New York – Kristaps is most likely out, and that means heavy doses of a bunch of value plays not mentioned above.

Other Options

PG – Ricky Rubio, Dennis Schroeder, Darren Collison

SG – Giannis Antetekuonmpo, Eric Gordon

SF – LeBron James, Andrew Wiggins, Jae Crowder

PF – James Johnson, Nerlens Noel, Serge Ibaka

C – Myles Turner, Guillermo Hernangomez

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