2018 Waste Management Phoenix Open DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
The Farmers Insurance Open is in the books, and Jason Day makes a statement win in overtime. Alex Noren made a splash as well, and it will be interesting to see how that will carry over to this week.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
Harman – MC/ Streelman – T29 / Rahm – T29 / Steele – T29 / Fowler – MC / Horschel – T54 / Rose – T8 / Howell – T6 / Glover – T67 / Spaun – T23
Getting the only bad things out of the way, it is awful when your first and fifth ranked golfers do not make the cut. I think looking forward we can safely avoid Fowler here – he just does not get it. I will take two top tens and some otherwise decent finishes and call it better than not.
Thank goodness we are done with weird cuts and switching courses and we can just focus on a tournament that has been played at the same course for 30+ years. I think we can rely on course history quite a bit this weekend. I also think Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Greens in Regulation are the two stats I am weight the most. So for me, it is those two things, course history and recent form to an extent that will weigh heavily. I always use four other stats but they are weighed less than normal this week.
Jordan Spieth (12500/11400) – I am sure everyone and their mother will have Hideki slotted in the #1 slot and rightfully so. However, I do think it is important to put into context that Spieth has just been better overall on the year. For me, Spieth or Fowler will be my tournament pivots where I do not have Hideki this weekend. Spieth is 6th in Tee to Green and 1st in Greens in Regulation. He has two top tens in his past 2 trips. I think it is safe to say that Spieth is just as safe here, and absolutely does have the same level of upside.
Zach Johnson (10600/7700) – That is right folks! Our model says that Hideki is also not the #2 ranked golfer for this tournament! Johnson has three top 14s in his last three appearances, and he has also been playing extremely well to start this season. The stats are not as good as Spieth, but he is still one of the top 12 golfers when just taking stats into consideration. The price on DraftKings is insulting, and I would expect him to see huge ownership. It should be that way, though.
Hideki Matsuyama (12400/11500) – Hideki has finished first, first, second and fourth in his last four. So, yeah, he might be set here. He does not grade out like the other two above do for stats, but his history is amazing. I am still debating where I want to go with his ownership. Part of me says eat it in cash games, but really try to go with more Spieth and Fowler in tournaments. It is just the ownership level on Hideki. If he hits 35% and somehow does not finish top ten, but Spieth and/or Fowler do well or win, your pivot to them will make you all the money.
Webb Simpson (11100/8900) – I expect for Webb to be pretty highly owned this week. He is another course horse who has been playing pretty well. His stats back him up as being a fit for this course, and Vegas likes him, as the 7th highest odds. He is cheap enough that you could pair him with any of the high priced guys and still build a good team around him, so he should be pretty chalky.
J.J Spaun (8800/7500) – Spaun is hitting a good golf ball right now. He has looked very impressive in the early part of the season. He finished fourth here in 2016, all his stats show that he makes a good fit for this course, and you cannot argue with his recent form. It would not shock me to see him finish as a top-15 guy this weekend, and at the price, you are getting a steal.
Brendan Steele (9600/7800) – Steele is a guy I have heard being talked up around the industry, so we could see high ownership on him. In his last five here, he has finished between 6th-26th, with two 6th place finishes. I get the upside. I just think he is a guy who makes sense in cash games but I do not see being able to really finish hard after what I have seen this year.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Alex Noren: I do nto see anyone who really jumps out other than Hideki. If he gets 35-40% ownership in tournaments, which he could, and crashed somehow, I mean, that flips things on their heads. Noren made it to a Monday playoff with Day, and has to be coming into this super psyched. I think the price is a little high and it could scare some players off, but he could be in line to take this thing down.
Overall Top 25
1 – Jordan Spieth
2 – Zach Johnson
3 – Hideki Matsuyama
4 – Webb Simpson
5 – J.J. Spaun
6 – Brendan Steele
7 – Ricky Fowler
8 – Alex Noren
9 – William McGirt
10 – Chez Reavie
11 – John Rahm
12 – Austin Cook
13 – Keegan Bradley
14 – Ryan Armour
15 – Bud Cauley
16 – Ryan Palmer
17 – Scott Piercy
18 –Francesco Molinari
19 – Billy Horschel
20 – Kevin Chappell
21 – John Peterson
22 – Brian Stuard
23 – Matt Kuchar
24 – Chris Kirk
25 – Kevin Streelman
Thanks for reading!