2018 Farmers Insurance Open DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
The Career Builder is one of the hardest tournaments to peg, due to the three courses in use, as well as a cut after the third round. For the most part, I think the picks were alright.
Let’s check in with our top 10 from last week to see how they did:
Harman – T20/ Steele – T20 / Spaun – MC / Howell – T20 / Rahm – Win / Cook – T14 / Palmer – T20 / Kizzire– 42 / Reavie – T36 / Mickelson – MC
So, like I said, the picks were kind of meh. We did nail the winner, but he was someone who was making everyones list. Two MC out of 10 and no other top 10 golfers made this somewhat of a frustrating week. I managed one good lineup that compensated for my bad ones, but you cannot count on it every week.
Torrey Pines is another interesting course, as we are going to see action over two different courses before the cut. The North course is played once, while the South is played thrice. After the easy courses we have seen over the past several weeks, things become difficult. The South course has been ranked one of the hardest on tour. The North used to be very much easier, but changes to a different type of grass to Bentgrass, while the South uses Poa. Golfers will likely need to succeed under par on the North course to stand a fighting chance to get into the weekend.
Brian Harman (11300/9600) – 2018 has been a rocket start for Harman, who has seen a bunch of top tens before crashing down to T20 at the Career Builder. In truth, that probably did kill you if you had him because his price pretty much forced a top 5 finish to be profitable. Nonetheless, his consistency at this point has been awesome, and with so many other high priced golfers on the slate, he will likely see an ownership dip. He comes in top 15 in every stat we like for this course. The history here has been solid, and if nothing else, he makes a good pivot from Tiger.
Kevin Streelman (8600/7500) – It is important to put into perspective why Streelman would be second: he is off to a terrific start to the year, and a lot of the top tier golfers have really struggled in the past at this event, so it brings their overall rankings down. Streelman has a 67th and 3rd in his most recent two appearances here. The 3rd we like, 67th not so much. His stats are strong coming into this event: 17th or better in all six, including 2nd in the field in both Bogey Avoidance and Greens in Regulation. He will not carry heavy ownership, as golfers priced both above and below him will soak it up. I could stomach him in my single entry tournaments, because if he can ding a top 15, you will have built a nice team elsewhere.
Jon Rahm (12600/11800) – I could leave this section totally blank and you would understand why. Dude is good and he is coming to a course he won at in his first attempt after winning a tournament the week before. All of the rest of the top 5 priced golfers and Jason Day all have missed cuts here, so it does not mean that he cannot get it done. It is also very, very hard to win back to back years, let alone back to back weeks. This could be an exception. I will say that I am expecting a huge ownership number, so I feel like I have to go underweight on him in tournaments because of it. I would not be shocked if he won, though.
Brendan Steele (9700/7800) – Steele has four consecutive top 30 finishes under his belt in his first four tournaments this year. He is the 22nd highest price golfer on the slate for this event. He has 20th, 27th, and 28th place finishes in three of those. He has made the cut. He has the 14th highest odds according to Vegas. 5/6 course stats see him as 16th or better and his 6th stat is a 39th. He has everything you would want for a golfer at this event. He might seem an underwhelming option, but looks like if nothing else a great cash game play.
Rickie Fowler (12100/11400) – We should start with the good: his last two events are a 2nd and 4th place finish. That is a huge plus at this price. From a pure stats perspective, he probably has the best course fit of anyone in this tournament, with no stat lower than 17 and 4 in the top 6. We know he is one of the most talented golfers on the tour. Then why in the world does he have 3 missed cuts here in his last 5? I mean, he has been good for awhile, you know, like 2017 and he still missed the cut. I am optimistic that he will be contending on the weekend, but I am very, very nervous with his slate breaking downside.
Billy Horschel (9000/7100) – I guess this is quite the interesting picks list. Truthfully, I am just going by what my spreadsheet pushes out. Even though that there are analysts out there with far more knowledge on golf than I, it becomes a bit redundant and insulting when they list their picks for this event (or ones like it) and they are Fowler, Rahm, Rose, Matsuyama, Harman and Leishman. No shit? It does not take much skill to pick 6 of the top 10 golfers in the field or on tour and that is why you cannot fit them into a DraftKings or FanDuel lineup like that. I am not sure why Billy Horschel made me go there, but he did. Again, I am most certainly not the best PGA DFS in the business, but I am learning more and more and not afraid to take a risk with a pick. That is Billy Horschel to a tee. He is a very streaky golfer and you will see him go 11/2/17/MC/MC/MC/MC/MC a few times through a portion of the years. He finished 11th last year, has some decent history at this course and, again, his stats look like they match well. I cannot in good faith suggest using him in cash games, but he is a guy who could garner low ownership in tournaments due to the volatile nature, and if he pops and the rest of your lineup is hitting, you will move up boards quicker.
The One Guy Who is the Make or Break Player this Week:
Tiger Woods: God (or whoever or whatever you believe) bless you if you are rolling with Woods this week. If he was mid $7k we could have a discussion about it, but I honestly think making the cut is going to be a good week for him. I do think he will garner ownership because of his name and I think people genuinely want him to do well. If you think the industry is wrong and he will not have high ownership and you think he has a shot of winning this, then this might be your only chance to catch lightning in a bottle. If that exact situation occurs, he will be one of the top 3 owned golfers in every tournament he was in this year. For me, I will not make a single Tiger lineup. If he kills it and it kills me, so be it. This is a see it to believe it situation.
Overall Top 25
1 – Brian Harman
2 – Kevin Streelman
3 – Jon Rahm
4 – Brendan Steele
5 – Rickie Fowler
6 – Billy Horschel
7 – Justin Rose
8 – Charles Howell III
9 – Lucas Glover
10 – J.J. Spaun
11 – Cameron Smith
12 – Ryan Palmer
13 – Hideki Matsuyama
14 – Tony Finau
15 – Chesson Headley
16 – Hunter Mahan
17 – Chris Kirk
18 – Russell Knox
19 – Bud Cauley
20 – Nick Taylor
21 – Gary Woodland
22 – Jhonattan Vegas
23 – Stewart Cink
24 – Andrew Landry
25 – Keegan Bradley
Thanks for reading!