2018 AT&T Pebble Beach DFS Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings
I am no longer going to go back and recap how things went. It takes too long and really serves no purpose other than to annoy me in doing it. I am definitely looking to streamline my articles a lot.
This week we are back to wacko courses and three round cuts, so this should be fun. I am all about the scoring and I do not really care about anything else this week. Course history is a plus here and quite frankly, I am not spending a ton of time building a model that will produce results that are markedly irrelevant. Models can be great tools but they serve no purpose when the human variable of performance is not able to be fully considered. The arguments will be made that you can account for variance, but when you have 130+ golfers, most of which lack significant history at a course, you are really just fooling yourself.
Dustin Johnson (12800/11700) – Very good chance DJ is the highest owned top dollar golfer this week. He has been excellent this year and on this course. I could see merit in using Jason Day, as I think he is playing much, much better golf, but I still do believe DJ is the best golfer going, and he is my pick to win this thing.
Pat Perez (10300/8600) – Things you need to know about PGA DFS: chalk Webb Simpson will always fail you, but chalk Pat Perez will save the day. Perez is in excellent form and has a great history here. Those two things combined give me the feeling we will see him in the mix on the weekend.
Brandt Snedeker (10900/8100) – Sneds is another guy who is an absolute beast when it comes to this tournament. He has been playing relatively solid golf as well. He is going to be chalk, but again, I am not too concerned. If he contends, are you overly concerned that a lot of people have him? I didnt think so.
J.B. Holmes (9700/7400) – Holmes is one of the most frustrating golfers on tour. He is ultra talented, but he is also very, very volatile. Case in point: he contends one week, and brutally misses the cut the week after. Still, this is a course that he seems to get so we will cross our fingers that we can get good JB through the weekend.
Rafa Cabrera Bella (10200/6900) – Not quite sure what in the hell is going on with the DraftKings pricing algorithm, but a world-class player like RCB should not be priced here. He will be the easiest chalk of the week in cash games, and at this price I am not so sure you are worrying about him finishing top 10 or not.